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Predictions graded

Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2Michael Geerts #339Belgium0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Wed 30 Sept 2026, 14:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEdas Butvilas · 71 places

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 212 on 3 April 2023. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #339
Peak ranking: #212 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 06:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas is the higher-ranked player with the better hard-court record, but Geerts has just won two matches on these courts to reach the main draw.

Butvilas is the likelier winner. At 1.22 to win the match and 1.30 to take the first set, he offers nothing at those prices. Two quoted prices are worth considering: Geerts at 3.8 to win the match and 3.2 to take the opening set.

Context

It is the strongest result in Butvilas's September and it came on hard courts, the surface of this Porto event, against a seeded former top-10 opponent rather than the lower-ranked field he meets in qualifying-level draws. It gives the fixture a concrete reference for the level he produced in the days immediately before it. The limitation is that the run ended immediately afterwards: Mayot beat him in two sets in the last 16, so the Dimitrov win shows a high ceiling rather than a run of consistent form.
- Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3) 6-3 in the Saint-Tropez Challenger first round .
- Dimitrov entered the event as the sixth seed and was ranked No. 127.
- Butvilas lost 6-4 6-3 to Harold Mayot in the round of 16 .
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharest
The recent workload is asymmetric: Geerts had to win two matches to reach the main draw while Butvilas walked straight in, and the second of those, against Joao Domingues, ran to a deciding tiebreak, the day before this match. That sequence is the main reason the two arrive with different amounts of recent court time at the same venue. The counterweight is that the qualifying wins came against opponents ranked No. 501 and No. 596, and a two-match qualifying route is routine at this level, so the gap is real but modest.
- Geerts beat Vladyslav Orlov 7-6(3) 6-2 in Porto qualifying.
- Geerts beat Joao Domingues 3-6 6-4 7-6(4) in the final qualifying round .
- Geerts is ranked No. 344 and was listed as a qualifier, while Butvilas, ranked No. 203, entered the main draw directly.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharestlivescore.tennis365.comlivescore.tennis365.com · 29 Sep 2026
Butvilas has been a fast starter in this stretch of hard-court tennis, and the same 14-match sample shows where the results thin out.
Ten first sets won from 14 completed hard-court matches between 6 August and 24 September is the strongest single number in Butvilas's recent record, and it is the basis for favouring him to lead early. The same sample shows only six second sets won against eight lost, so a match that runs past the opening set is where Geerts's chances sit. Both figures come from a 14-match window, not a season-long rate.
- Butvilas won 10 of 14 first sets and lost 4 across completed hard-court matches from 6 August to 24 September 2026.
- He won 6 of 14 second sets and lost 8 in the same 14-match sample.
- He averaged 5.9 games won and 4.5 games lost in opening sets, and 5.0 won against 4.7 lost in second sets.
The clay loss is the last completed match on Geerts's record before Porto, so it is the nearest marker of the level he carried into this event. Its weight is limited because it came on clay against a player ranked No. 334, and Geerts has since won twice on hard courts in Porto qualifying. It reads as a surface-specific detail rather than a continuing form problem.
- Carlos Sanchez Jover beat Michael Geerts 6-4 7-5 at the Plovdiv Challenger .
- The Plovdiv event was played on clay, after which Geerts moved to the hard courts of Porto.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharestlivescore.tennis365.comlivescore.tennis365.com · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas is the higher-ranked player, has the better hard-court record and won their only previous meeting, while Geerts arrives off a long qualifying run.
- Butvilas: 9-5 on hard in his last 14 completed matches; Geerts: 4-4 in 8 hard matches.
- Ranking: Butvilas No. 203, Geerts No. 344.
- Butvilas won the only previous meeting 6-3 6-2.
- Geerts came through two qualifying matches, finishing a three-setter with a deciding tiebreak on 28 September, one day before this match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average over ten games, with regular tiebreaks suggesting a long first set.
- Butvilas averages 10.4 games in his first sets.
- Geerts averages 10.4 games in his first sets.
- Butvilas has played 4 first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches; Geerts 3 in 8.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players sit almost exactly on the line, with a slight lean to fewer games than the mark.
- Butvilas averages 24.9 total games per hard-court match.
- Geerts averages 25.5 total games per hard-court match.
- Combined average across 22 matches is roughly 25.1 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 25.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals for both players sit just above the line.
- Butvilas averages 9.7 games in second sets.
- Geerts averages 9.8 games in second sets.
- Butvilas has played 2 second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches; Geerts 1 in 8.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas starts matches strongly, taking the opening set in ten of his last fourteen on this surface.
- Butvilas has won the first set in 10 of his last 14 hard-court matches.
- Geerts has split first sets 4-4 in his last 8 hard-court matches.
- Butvilas averages 5.9 games won and 4.5 lost in opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas still rates the stronger player, but his second sets have been notably less productive than his first.
- Butvilas has won the second set in only 6 of his last 14 hard-court matches.
- Geerts is 4-4 in second sets across his last 8 hard-court matches.
- Butvilas has lost 8 second sets, more than any other set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have finished a majority of recent hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Butvilas's recent hard matches: 8 of 14 finished in two sets.
- Geerts's recent hard matches: 4 of 8 finished in two sets.
- Combined two-set rate: 12 of 22 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in well over half of both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Butvilas has had a tiebreak in 8 of his last 14 hard-court matches.
- Geerts has had a tiebreak in 5 of his last 8 hard-court matches.
- Combined: 13 of 22 recent matches featured at least one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Edas Butvilas

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#191Harold Mayot 7-6(3) 6-3#126Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#244Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#499Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#563Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#536Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#226Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#117Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#316Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#149Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#195Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#146Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#137Rei Sakamoto

6-0 6-2#404Ozan Baris

Michael Geerts

7W 8L

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#596Joao Domingues 7-6(3) 6-2#501Vladyslav Orlov 6-4 7-5#328Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 6-4#255Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#334Lucas Poullain

4-6 6-4 6-4#464Radu Albot

6-3 7-6(6)—Billy Blaydes

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#441Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#828Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#548Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-7(9) 6-2 6-2#465Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#273Yi Zhou

6-2 6-2#606Pieter De Lange

7-6(8) 2-1 ret.#886Iiro Vasa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EBEdas ButvilasButvilas

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Michael GeertsGeertsMG

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Michael Geerts's route runs through break pts saved.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.0%+8.3pp54.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.3%+3.5pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1551.7%+2.4pp49.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.8+1.64.2

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.11.7 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1540.1%+2.0pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1548.9%+4.9pp44.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1555.7%—56.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%+3.4pp49.2%

Serve · 5–0

63.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.3pp54.7%

73.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.5pp69.8%

51.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp49.3%

5.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.64.2

2.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.7 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

40.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

48.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.9pp44.0%

55.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—56.0%

Points · 1–0

52.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp49.2%