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Predictions graded

Stefanos Sakellaridis #155Greece0Yuta Shimizu #393Japan2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Tue 29 Sept 2026, 06:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefanos Sakellaridis · 238 places

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

Sakellaridis reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 146 on 22 June 2026. ITF lists a 31–16 professional record in 2026, including 16–7 on clay and 11–6 on hard courts; no reliable current injury or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #155
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranked 134 against 393, Sakellaridis is the favourite, but the hard-court numbers are narrower than that gap suggests: Shimizu returns better and has been playing on this surface this month.

Sakellaridis is the higher-ranked player and the more likely winner, but 1.33 asks more of him than his record supports. Shimizu to win at 3.00 is the one quoted price with something behind it.

Context

Sakellaridis played two singles rubbers on outdoor clay in Košice on 19 and 20 September and lost both, including the rubber that decided the tie. He then travelled from Europe to China for a hard-court Challenger starting 29 September, so he arrives off a two-loss weekend and a surface change with little on-site preparation. The gap is nine days, which limits how much physical fatigue carries into this match, but the clay-to-hard transition and the long trip are the real conditions here rather than a routine rest week.
- Slovakia beat Greece 3-2 in Košice, with Norbert Gombos sealing the decisive victory over Stefanos Sakellaridis
- Sakellaridis lost his opening singles rubber to Alex Molcan 6-1 6-1 on 19 September
- The tie was played outdoors on clay in Košice on 19-20 September 2026, nine days before this hard-court Challenger begins
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Sakellaridis is the higher-ranked player and the serve is the clearest weapon he brings into this first round.
If Sakellaridis keeps holding comfortably, the pressure shifts to Shimizu's return games, and that is the most plausible route to a Sakellaridis win given how close the overall point numbers are.
- Hard-court sample of 9 matches: 86 aces (9.6 per match) and 38 double faults (4.2 per match).
- First-serve points won: 74% (282 of 381); first serves in: 58% (381 of 657).
- The same nine-match sample produced a 6-3 record and 12 of 22 sets won (54.5%).
Shimizu is ranked 393, but his return and break-point conversion are the numbers that hold up best on this surface.
Return pressure is the part of his profile that could keep him in games against a higher-ranked opponent, even if the ranking gap suggests a one-sided match on paper.
- 15 hard-court matches: 432 of 1132 return points won (38.2%).
- Break points converted: 41 of 101 (40.6%).
- Total points won in the same 15-match sample: 1151 of 2288 (50.3%).
Shimizu's best result of the September Asian block was a semifinal at a Vietnam Challenger, three wins on hard courts including a tight three-setter against Hiroki Moriya. That run is the clearest recent evidence that he can string wins together at Challenger level, at a time when his ranking sits well below the field he is facing here. The same swing also produced first-round and early exits, so the run qualifies rather than confirms his current level.
- Shimizu was a singles semifinalist at the Phan Thiet Challenger in mid-September
- Arthur Weber beat Shimizu 6-4 6-4 to advance to the final
- Shimizu's route included a three-set win over Hiroki Moriya
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 04:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis is ranked far higher and has the stronger hard-court serve, winning 54.5% of hard-court sets against Shimizu's 48.6%.
- Hard-court record in this window: 6-3, with 12 of 22 sets won (54.5%).
- Hard-court serve numbers: 74% first-serve points won, 9.6 aces per match, 4.2 double faults per match.
- Shimizu's hard-court numbers: 7-8, 17 of 35 sets (48.6%), 70.6% first-serve points won, 5.2 aces per match.
- Total points won on hard: Sakellaridis 49.4%, Shimizu 50.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have run longer than opening sets for both players, with Shimizu's averaging above ten games.
- Sakellaridis second sets average 9.67 total games on hard.
- Shimizu second sets average 10.60 total games on hard.
- Second-set tiebreaks: 1 in 9 for Sakellaridis, 4 in 15 for Shimizu.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening-set game averages for both players sit just above 9.5.
- Sakellaridis opening sets average 9.78 total games on hard.
- Shimizu opening sets average 9.93 total games on hard.
- Opening-set tiebreaks: 1 in 9 for Sakellaridis, 2 in 15 for Shimizu.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court sample sits just above the line, with roughly ten games per set for both players.
- Sakellaridis hard-court average total games 23.67 across 9 matches (9.7 per set).
- Shimizu hard-court average total games 24.0 across 15 matches (10.3 per set).
- Both players win close to half of all points on this surface (49.4% and 50.3%).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' hard-court records in this window.
- Sakellaridis: 2-0 twice and 0-2 three times in 9 hard-court matches.
- Shimizu: 2-0 five times and 0-2 five times in 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined straight-set share is 15 of 24 matches in the two samples.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening-set records are close to even, with Sakellaridis holding a small edge from his higher ranking and stronger serve.
- Sakellaridis won the opening set in 5 of 9 hard-court matches.
- Shimizu won the opening set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Sakellaridis averages 4.67 games won against 5.11 lost in opening sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' hard-court matches were completed without a tiebreak.
- 7 of 24 hard-court matches in the combined samples featured a tiebreak.
- Sakellaridis's hard-court matches: 2 of 9 with a tiebreak.
- Shimizu's hard-court matches: 5 of 15 with a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's serve produces enough aces on its own to put the combined match figure near this line.
- Sakellaridis averages 9.6 aces per match on hard across 9 matches (86 total).
- Shimizu averages 5.2 aces per match on hard across 15 matches (78 total).
- Combined hard-court ace average is 14.8 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average only just reaches the line, and shorter matches reduce the count.
- Sakellaridis: 38 double faults in 9 hard-court matches.
- Shimizu: 50 double faults in 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined per-match average of 7.5 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Stefanos Sakellaridis: 6/8 recent winner projections matched

6 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Stefanos Sakellaridis matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Stefanos Sakellaridis8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#887Federico Coria0-2#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·72%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#887Federico Coria0-2#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

72%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#213Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#213Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

62%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#649Ivan Ivanov0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·72%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#649Ivan Ivanov0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

72%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

30 May·Chisinau - Moldova

#226Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#197Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·58%

Matched

30 May 2026

Chisinau - Moldova

#226Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#197Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

58%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

27 May·Chisinau - Moldova

#197Stefanos Sakellaridis2-0#323Alex Martinez

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·62%

Matched

27 May 2026

Chisinau - Moldova

#197Stefanos Sakellaridis2-0#323Alex Martinez

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

62%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

Previous match context available

Stefanos Sakellaridis

8W 7L

6-4 7-6(4)#348Norbert Gombos

6-1 6-1#96Alex Molcan

6-1 5-7 7-5#181Laslo Djere

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#345Duje Ajdukovic

6-4 6-4#291Mili Poljicak

2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#238Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-3#115Christopher O'Connell

6-1 6-4#42Luca Van Assche

6-4 7-6(8)#193Taro Daniel

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#38Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-4#91Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 3-6 6-2#320Ugo Blanchet

6-4 3-6 7-5#152Tristan Schoolkate

3-6 6-3 6-2#460Karl Poling

6-4 6-2#84Titouan Droguet

Yuta Shimizu

7W 8L

6-2 2-6 7-5#336Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#405Arthur Weber

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#500Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#382Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#896Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#311Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#297Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#203Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#418Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#636Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#148Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#501Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#639Dan Martin

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SSStefanos SakellaridisSakellaridis

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Yuta Shimizu carries the stronger recent form — Stefanos Sakellaridis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1557.6%+2.4pp60.0%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1571.7%+1.1pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1554.7%+5.1pp49.6%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/158.4+3.25.2

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/154.20.9 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1533.7%+4.5pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1538.4%+2.2pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1566.3%+2.3pp64.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.2%+1.1pp50.3%

Serve · 3–2

57.6%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+2.4pp60.0%

71.7%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+1.1pp70.6%

54.7%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.1pp49.6%

8.4Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+3.25.2

4.2Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.9 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

33.7%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+4.5pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

38.4%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+2.2pp40.6%

66.3%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+2.3pp64.0%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.1pp50.3%