Davis CupFinished

Predictions graded

Norbert Gombos #424Slovakia2Stefanos Sakellaridis #155Greece0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 12:38 Predictions gradedClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefanos Sakellaridis · 269 places

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

ATP records list a career-high ranking of No. 80 in October 2017. The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 424, as a 193 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #424
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

Sakellaridis reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 146 on 22 June 2026. ITF lists a 31–16 professional record in 2026, including 16–7 on clay and 11–6 on hard courts; no reliable current injury or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #155
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 11:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Sakellaridis is a slight favorite (57%) over Gombos on Davis Cup clay, with value on his moneyline at 1.91.

Expect a tight, serve-dominated match with over 21.5 games, over 10.5 aces, and over 5.5 double faults. Gombos +3.5 games is the best secondary angle.

Context

Sakellaridis, ATP No. 136, is right-handed with a two-handed backhand and fell on the clay during Saturday's opening rubber at NTC Košice, losing 6-1, 6-1 to Alex Molčan on 19 September. His movement around the court dropped after the fall. No diagnosis or fitness clearance for Sunday is available.
If he plays the reverse singles, reduced movement would limit how much court he can cover and how well he can defend the wide areas on clay. None of that is settled: with no diagnosis and no word on his fitness, both his place in the lineup and any restriction on his movement stay open. His tracked recent sample is 2 wins from 5 matches, so there is little current form to lean on either way.
- The 19 September opening rubber ended 6-1, 6-1 after a fall on clay was followed by reduced movement.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
To watchSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 11:23 · Europe/BucharestTASR Slovakia-Greece match reportwww.tasr.sk · 19 Sep 2026
Gombos is the Slovak right-hander ranked 353; 321 of his 612 career wins have come on clay, and all 15 matches in his current window were on that surface. Sakellaridis, a 198cm Greek right-hander ranked 136, has 153 career wins on hard and 145 on clay, so clay is not where most of his results have been built.
Gombos owns the better recent record at 11-4, though his wins came against players ranked 261 or lower and three of his four losses were to opponents ranked 141-208. Sakellaridis is 9-6 but 2-3 in his last five, and his 2-2 clay split sits behind August hard-court wins over Bergs (No. 38), Vukic (No. 91) and Daniel (No. 160).
- Gombos: 11-4 in his last 15 matches, every one on clay, and 3-2 in his last five.
- Sakellaridis: 9-6 in his last 15, split 2-2 on clay and 7-3 on hard, with 2-3 in his last five.
- Gombos's wins in the window came against players ranked 261 or lower or unranked; his losses were to Wallin (No. 407), Seyboth Wild (No. 141), Tseng (No. 208) and Bueno (No. 172).
- Sakellaridis's August hard-court wins included Bergs (No. 38), Vukic (No. 91) and Daniel (No. 160).
Sakellaridis, ranked 136, is a 198cm right-hander whose last 15 matches produced 8.3 aces and 4.6 double faults per match. His serve has carried him further on hard courts than on clay, and his clay matches in this window have run far longer, averaging 137 minutes against 104 on hard.
Only four of those 15 matches were on clay, and there his ace rate falls to 5.8 per match and first-serve points won to 67.3%. Gombos's full 15-match clay sample shows 75.1% first-serve points won and 40.3% return points won across 15 tracked matches, though Sakellaridis's 60.4% second-serve points won on clay is the higher figure of the two.
- Sakellaridis averaged 9.6 aces per match on hard (10 matches) and 5.8 on clay (4 matches) in the last-15 window.
- First-serve points won: 74.6% on hard against 67.3% on clay; return points won 34.3% against 32.5%.
- His clay matches averaged 137 minutes and 4.3 double faults per match, against 104 minutes and 4.1 double faults on hard.
- Counterweight: on clay he still won 60.4% of second-serve points, above Gombos's 55% in his 15 clay matches.
Gombos is ranked 353 and Sakellaridis 136, a gap of 217 places, yet their career win rates are nearly level at 56.7% and 55.6%. Gombos also holds 321 career clay wins to Sakellaridis's 145, so the ranking difference reflects level away from clay more than it does this surface.
- Rankings: Gombos No. 353, Sakellaridis No. 136.
- Career records: Gombos 612-468 (56.7% of 1,080 matches), Sakellaridis 313-250 (55.6% of 563 matches).
- Career clay wins: Gombos 321, Sakellaridis 145.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Higher-ranked, higher-level opposition wins and serve power edge (8.3 aces/match) narrowly outweigh Gombos' stronger but lower-tier clay win-rate, with Davis Cup clay at home keeping it close.
- Ranking gap: Sakellaridis ATP No. 136 vs Gombos No. 353 (as of 2026-09-20)
- Sakellaridis last 15 (Aug-Sep 2026): 9-6 overall with wins over No. 38 Bergs and No. 91 Vukic on hard; Gombos' 11-4 clay window (Aug-Sep 2026) came almost entirely vs opponents ranked 300+
- Gombos clay last 15: 73.3% record, 57.1% games won, 40.3% return points won (15 matches tracked)
- Sakellaridis clay scope is thin: only 4 tracked clay matches, 2-2, 49.1% games won, 32.5% return points won
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis' long, grinding clay matches and Gombos' high game counts combine to push the combined total past 21.5 games.
- Sakellaridis last 15 (all surfaces): 378 games in 15 matches = 25.2 games/match; clay subset 112 games in 4 matches = 28.0/match
- Gombos last 15 clay: 322 games in 15 matches = 21.5 games/match; average duration 99.6 minutes
- Sakellaridis clay average duration 137.4 minutes; overall 117.7 minutes (15 matches tracked)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Frequent tiebreak and 7-5 opening sets from both players in the current clay window support a longer-than-9.5-game first set.
- Gombos recent clay openers: 7-6(4), 6-0, 6-4 (loss), 6-3, 7-6(9), 6-3 (Aug-Sep 2026)
- Sakellaridis recent openers: 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4, 6-2 (vs Molcan), 6-3, 6-1 (Aug-Sep 2026)
- Both players have below-average first-serve in (Gombos 56.8%, Sakellaridis 56.7% last 15), encouraging longer opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moderate break rates on both sides and Sakellaridis' pattern of drawn-out middle sets support a second set above 9.5 games.
- Sakellaridis last 15: 38 sets total across 15 matches, many extended middle sets (2-6, 3-6 sequences)
- Gombos second sets in Aug-Sep 2026 include 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 7-5
- Combined return-point weakness (Gombos 40.3%, Sakellaridis 33.5% last 15) keeps breaks flowing
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos' efficient clay serving and near-even games profile make a 3.5-game cushion valuable even if Sakellaridis edges the match.
- Gombos clay last 15: 57.1% games won (184/322) despite a lower ranking
- Sakellaridis clay scope thin: 49.1% games won (55/112, 4 matches tracked)
- Gombos' serve structure on clay (75.1% first-serve points won, 69.9% break points saved) limits lopsided scorelines
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNorbert Gombos +3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis' marginally superior overall level and serve give a slim edge, but Gombos' career first-set conversion (84%) and tight recent clay openers lower confidence.
- Gombos recent first sets include 7-6(4), 7-6(9), 7-6(1) and 7-6(1) losses/wins on clay (Aug-Sep 2026)
- Sakellaridis opened 7-6(1) vs Djere and 7-6(3) vs Bergs in Aug-Sep 2026
- Gombos career first-set win conversion 84% keeps this close
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight overall-quality edge for Sakellaridis, matched against Gombos' better clay set conversion, yields a near-coin-flip set.
- Gombos clay last 15: 64.7% sets won (22/34, 15 matches tracked)
- Sakellaridis overall last 15: 52.6% sets won (20/38) but 58.3% on hard (14/24, 10 tracked)
- Sakellaridis has repeatedly dropped middle sets (2-6 vs Ajdukovic, 3-6 vs Nedic) in Sep 2026
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostStefanos SakellaridisEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos' straight-set-heavy profile (only ~4 three-setters in his last 15) slightly offsets Sakellaridis' longer matches, making a two-set finish marginally more likely.
- Gombos last 15: 34 sets in 15 matches = 2.27 sets/match (about 27% three-setters)
- Sakellaridis last 15: 38 sets in 15 matches = 2.53 sets/match (about 53% three-setters)
- No H2H meetings to anchor either player's decider history
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis' high double-fault rate plus Gombos' reliable baseline contribution puts the combined total above 5.5.
- Sakellaridis last 15: 4.6 double faults/match (69, 15 matches tracked); 4.3/match on clay (4 tracked)
- Gombos last 15: 2.1 double faults/match (31, 15 matches tracked)
- Combined recent average is roughly 6.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis' big serve combined with Gombos' steady ace rate (4.9/match on clay) points to a combined total above 10.5.
- Sakellaridis last 15: 8.3 aces/match (125 aces, 15 matches tracked); 198 cm height
- Gombos last 15: 4.9 aces/match (73 aces, 15 matches tracked)
- Combined recent average implies roughly 13 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay sets frequently reach 6-6, and near-identical career tiebreak rates suggest at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Gombos played tiebreak sets in 4 of his last 6 clay matches (Aug-Sep 2026): 7-6(4), 7-6(9), 7-6(1), 7-6(1)
- Sakellaridis had 7-6(1) and 7-6(2) sets in Sep 2026 clay events
- Career tiebreak win rates are near-even (Gombos 52%, Sakellaridis 56%), consistent with tightly contested sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Stefanos Sakellaridis's winner forecasts have mostly held, and his current 57% mark is within historical range.

Stefanos Sakellaridis has 6 fulfilled predictions in a sampleSize of 8 matchWinner forecasts. His 62% average estimated probability produced 5 expected fulfilled predictions, and the two misses were both subject losses. The current 57% mark sits within his historical 55-72 range.

Recent evidence for Stefanos Sakellaridis8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#887Federico Coria0-2#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·72%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#887Federico Coria0-2#146Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

72%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#213Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#213Yu Hsiou Hsu0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

62%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#649Ivan Ivanov0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·72%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#649Ivan Ivanov0-2#153Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

72%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

30 May·Chisinau - Moldova

#226Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#197Stefanos Sakellaridis

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·58%

Matched

30 May 2026

Chisinau - Moldova

#226Genaro Alberto Olivieri0-2#197Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

58%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

27 May·Chisinau - Moldova

#197Stefanos Sakellaridis2-0#323Alex Martinez

BetBugsStefanos Sakellaridis to win·62%

Matched

27 May 2026

Chisinau - Moldova

#197Stefanos Sakellaridis2-0#323Alex Martinez

Stefanos Sakellaridis to win

62%probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis won

Matched

Norbert Gombos

11W 4L

7-6(4) 6-4#407Olle Wallin

6-0 6-2—Alexander Wagner

6-4 6-3#141Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-3 6-3#305Sandro Kopp

7-6(9) 6-3#562Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 7-5#652Andrea De Marchi

6-4 6-2#208Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 4-6 6-2#315Radu Mihai Papoe

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#307Sean Cuenin

4-6 6-1 6-4#317Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 6-1#606Andrew Paulson

7-6(1) 6-3—Jiri Cizek

6-3 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

4-6 6-1 6-1#270Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 7-5#261Franco Roncadelli

Stefanos Sakellaridis

9W 6L

6-1 5-7 7-5#183Laslo Djere

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#349Duje Ajdukovic

6-4 6-4#290Mili Poljicak

2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#236Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-3#111Christopher O'Connell

6-1 6-4#42Luca Van Assche

6-4 7-6(8)#160Taro Daniel

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#38Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-4#91Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 3-6 6-2#331Ugo Blanchet

6-4 3-6 7-5#165Tristan Schoolkate

3-6 6-3 6-2#457Karl Poling

6-4 6-2#89Titouan Droguet

6-4 7-6(4)#104Martin Damm

6-4 6-2 7-5#302Oliver Tarvet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NGNorbert GombosGombos

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Stefanos SakellaridisSakellaridisSS

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Stefanos Sakellaridis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.8%—56.7%

1st Serve Won75.1%+3.2pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won55.0%+1.3pp53.7%

Aces / Match4.9+3.48.3

Double Faults / Match2.12.5 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.3%+6.8pp33.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.1%+13.3pp37.8%

Break Pts Saved69.9%+2.6pp67.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.5%+4.4pp49.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

56.8%1st Serve In—56.7%

75.1%1st Serve Won+3.2pp71.9%

55.0%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp53.7%

4.9Aces / Match+3.48.3

2.1Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

40.3%Return Pts Won+6.8pp33.5%

Pressure · 2–0

51.1%Break Pts Converted+13.3pp37.8%

69.9%Break Pts Saved+2.6pp67.3%

Points · 1–0

53.5%Total Pts Won+4.4pp49.1%