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Predictions graded

Noma Akugue Noha #142Germany0Fiona Crawley #253United States2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Mon 28 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–750%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNoma Akugue Noha · 111 places

Noma Akugue Noha

Germany

Twenty-two-year-old left-hander from Reinbek, Germany. Her Roland-Garros profile lists a best singles ranking of No. 137; the supplied current ranking is No. 142.

Current ranking: #142
Peak ranking: #137
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Fiona Crawley

United States

American player, born 7 February 2002. Her WTA profile listed her at No. 253 in singles, while Tennis Abstract records a career-high No. 182 on 2 March 2026.

Current ranking: #253
Peak ranking: #182 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Higher-ranked Noma Akugue Noha, a WTA 125 finalist on clay this month, meets qualifier Fiona Crawley, who has already won two three-set matches on these hard courts.

Noha Akugue should edge a close first-round match. Her 1.95 reflects the closeness rather than offering anything extra, and Crawley at 1.85 asks more than her record supports, so no quoted price here gives a clear edge.

Context

Her route into the main draw is the most consequential recent development in this fixture. Crawley won two three-set qualifying matches on consecutive days, the second a two-hour-45-minute win over Lois Boisson, the 2025 Roland-Garros semi-finalist, finishing less than a day before this first round. She has played eight competitive matches since 16 September, including a W75 final, while Noha Akugue has not competed since 17 September. Crawley should be the more rhythm-tested player on these courts but also the more heavily loaded one, so the physical balance shifts if this match runs long.
- Crawley was the fourth seed in the Adana Open qualifying draw
- She beat Adelina Lachinova 4-6 6-3 6-3 on 26 September
- She beat Lois Boisson 2-6 6-3 7-5 in a match lasting two hours 45 minutes
- Boisson, a 2025 Roland-Garros semi-finalist, is ranked 269
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/BucharestAdana Open match schedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 27 Sep 2026
Adana is played on Laykold hard courts, and the two players arrive from opposite directions on this surface. Noha Akugue has played 10 of her last 15 matches on clay, including her September final in Montreux, and is 2-3 on hard courts in that stretch, while all 15 of Crawley's recent matches have come on hard courts. The quicker surface should be the smaller adjustment for Crawley, though the ranking gap runs the other way, with Noha Akugue about 100 places higher despite the clay-heavy block.
- The Adana Open is a WTA 125 hard-court tournament staged in Adana, Turkey
- The qualifying draw was played on Laykold hard courts from 26 September
- The first-round match is listed for 28 September on Cagla Court
- The tournament is backed by the Turkish Tennis Federation and the Adana Tennis Mountain and Water Sports Club
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/BucharestAdana Open match schedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 27 Sep 2026
Reaching a WTA 125 final is the strongest result on Noha Akugue's recent record and is the best available read on her current level. Two limits matter here: the run came on clay, and she has played only twice since, beating Ayana Akli before losing to world No. 305 Malaika Rapolu on 17 September in three sets after taking the opening set. The final was also the most one-sided match of her week at 6-1 6-2, so the run shows she can reach this stage without demonstrating that level on hard courts.
- Noha Akugue was the third seed at the WTA 125 in Montreux
- She beat Guiomar Maristany 7-6(2) 6-3 in the semi-final
- She lost the final 6-1 6-2 to Fiona Ferro
- Her only matches since were a win over Ayana Akli and a three-set loss to Malaika Rapolu on 17 September
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Seeding captures the two entry paths into this draw: Noha Akugue went straight into the main draw at No. 128, while Crawley had to win two qualifying matches from No. 227. That ranking gap is the main reason the seed sits on the home side of this fixture, but entry status does not carry into the match itself, as Noha Akugue has not competed since 17 September while Crawley has already won twice on these courts this week and adjusted to the venue.
- Noha Akugue is the seventh seed in the Adana Open women's singles draw
- The first round is scheduled for 28 September
- Crawley reached the main draw through qualifying
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/BucharestAdana Open match schedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
The higher-ranked player has played at a stronger level recently, so she starts a close first-round match as the slight favourite.
- Noma Akugue Noha is WTA No. 128 against No. 227, and reached a WTA 125 final in Montreux this month
- On hard courts she is 2-3 in the tracked window, winning 54.2% of games (65-55)
- Fiona Crawley is 9-5 on hard but at ITF and W75 level
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance53%

Games4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Very few likely outcomes leave her more than two games behind.
- Noma Akugue Noha has lost only two of her five tracked hard matches by more than three games
- Crawley's wins on hard have twice come by a single game
- Her most recent hard defeat was 9-16 on games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNoma Akugue Noha +2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
She is rarely beaten heavily, so a one-and-a-half game start covers most defeat outcomes as well as wins.
- Noma Akugue Noha wins 54.2% of hard-court games
- Her two tracked hard matches were 9-16 in a loss and 12-3 in a win
- Crawley lost 7-13 on games in her most recent hard defeat
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNoma Akugue Noha +1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of her defeats are narrow, so she covers this line in the large majority of outcomes.
- Noma Akugue Noha is 2-3 on hard but won 12-3 in her most recent hard win
- Crawley lost four of 14 hard matches in straight sets
- Crawley's hard-court game margins in her last six matches ranged from plus seven to minus six
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNoma Akugue Noha +0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's matches are usually close enough that a one-game start covers the majority of results.
- Crawley's game margins in her last six hard matches were plus one, plus four, minus six, minus three, plus seven and plus four
- She lost only one recent hard match by more than three games
- Noma Akugue Noha's tracked hard matches were split 12-3 and 9-16 on games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFiona Crawley +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals for both players sit just under the line.
- Crawley's second sets average 9.3 games over 14 hard matches
- Noma Akugue Noha's second sets average 9.4 games over five hard matches
- Only three of those 19 second sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's tracked opening sets regularly reach ten games.
- Noma Akugue Noha's first sets average 8.6 games and produced no tiebreaks
- That includes a 6-3 first set in her most recent hard win
- Crawley has played two first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slight preference for the higher-ranked player to win the match outright.
- Noma Akugue Noha wins 54.2% of hard-court games in this window (65-55)
- Her two tracked hard matches finished 12-3 and 9-16 in games
- Crawley has lost four of 14 hard matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNoma Akugue Noha -0.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Crawley's larger sample of short matches points marginally below the line in a first-round contest.
- Crawley's hard-court matches average 21.5 games over 14 matches
- Eleven of those 14 matches finished in straight sets
- Noma Akugue Noha's hard matches average 24 games over five matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the norm in Crawley's larger sample of hard-court matches.
- Eleven of Crawley's 14 hard matches ended in straight sets
- Her straight-set record includes seven 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses
- Noma Akugue Noha has completed two of five hard matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets are the strongest part of the higher-ranked player's hard-court record and Crawley has often started slowly.
- She has won all five first sets in her tracked hard-court matches, averaging 6-2.6 games
- Crawley has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard
- Crawley lost the opening set in three of her last six hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is Crawley's strongest set by record and her opponent's weakest.
- Crawley has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard
- She took the second set in both Adana qualifying wins
- Noma Akugue Noha has won 2 of 5 second sets on this surface
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFiona CrawleyEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Nine of Crawley's 14 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Four of Noma Akugue Noha's five tracked hard matches had no tiebreak
- Crawley has played five tiebreaks across those 14 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Noma Akugue Noha

9W 6L

4-6 6-3 6-0#305Malaika Rapolu

6-3 6-0#289Ayana Akli

6-1 6-2#107Fiona Ferro

7-6(2) 6-3#170Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-1 7-6(7)#176Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-5 6-3#323Alina Granwehr

5-7 6-2 6-4#433Denisa Zoldakova

1-6 6-4 7-5#161Anna Siskova

3-6 7-6(6) 7-5#310Weronika Falkowska

6-2 6-3#189Julia Avdeeva

6-1 3-6 7-5#69Anna Bondar

6-3 2-6 6-2#399Valentina Steiner

6-3 6-1#104Francesca Jones

5-7 6-2 6-3#203Darya Astakhova

6-1 7-5#280Alice Rame

Fiona Crawley

10W 5L

2-6 6-3 7-5#269Lois Boisson 4-6 6-3 6-3#808Adelina Lachinova 6-1 7-6(4)#206Carole Monnet 4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#161Anna Siskova

6-3 2-0 ret.#321Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#189Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#376Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#349Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#111Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#557Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#97Simona Waltert

6-4 6-4#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 7-6(2)#309Lizette Cabrera

6-3 6-3#289Ayana Akli

7-6(1) 6-3#371Eunhye Lee

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NNNoma Akugue NohaNoha

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Fiona CrawleyCrawleyFC

Noma Akugue Noha carries the stronger recent form — Fiona Crawley's route runs through return.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.9%+5.1pp57.8%

1st Serve Won61.4%—60.7%

2nd Serve Won45.7%—45.1%

Aces / Match2.2+1.30.9

Double Faults / Match3.60.5 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.4%+5.0pp50.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.5%+6.5pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+4.5pp52.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.4pp52.2%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

62.9%1st Serve In+5.1pp57.8%

61.4%1st Serve Won—60.7%

45.7%2nd Serve Won—45.1%

2.2Aces / Match+1.30.9

3.6Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

45.4%Return Pts Won+5.0pp50.4%

Pressure · 2–0

51.5%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp45.0%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp52.6%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.4pp52.2%