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Predictions graded

Fiona Crawley #227United States2Adelina Lachinova #8081

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-3Sat 26 Sept 2026, 09:25 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions10–471%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Crawley · 581 places

Fiona Crawley

United States

Ranked No. 227. Her tracked 2026 sample is entirely on hard court, where she has won 10 of her last 15 recorded matches.

Current ranking: #227
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Adelina Lachinova

Ranked No. 808. Her tracked 2026 sample is mostly clay (11 of 15 matches), with a smaller hard-court sample.

Current ranking: #808
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 10:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Fiona Crawley is the higher-ranked player with the only real hard-court evidence, 9-5 across 14 tracked matches, against an opponent whose four hard matches all date from June.

Crawley has lost her last two completed matches and her recent wins have been narrow, so a routine afternoon is not assured. Her 1.07 match price needs 93.5% and the record does not support it; the match going to a deciding third set at 3.75 is the one reviewed price that offers something.

Context

Crawley, ranked 227, brings by far the fuller hard-court record of the two players into this qualifying round.
The shape of the sample matters more than the 9-5 headline: 11 of Crawley's 14 matches were decided in straight sets and only three went to a decider, at an average of 21.8 games. She has also lost four of those matches 0-2, and her two most recent completed matches, on 20 and 22 September, were defeats. On this record a short match is the likeliest pattern, whichever way it falls.
- 14 tracked hard-court matches from 29 July to 22 September 2026: nine wins, five losses
- Scorelines in that sample: seven 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss
- Average 2.21 sets and 21.8 games per match, with six of the 14 including a tiebreak
Lachinova, ranked 808, has a much thinner hard-court record than her opponent and none of it recent.
Every hard-court number attached to Lachinova comes from a single week in June, roughly three months before this qualifying round. Inside that small sample she was competitive and her matches ran long at 23.25 games, but four matches cannot describe a current level, and the sample counts completed matches only, with one further hard-court match left out after a retirement. Her hard-court form is unknown rather than established in either direction.
- Four tracked hard-court matches, all between 17 and 20 June 2026: three wins, one loss
- Average 23.25 games and 2.5 sets per match across that sample
- One further hard-court match was excluded from the sample after a retirement
Lachinova arrives at a hard-court qualifier with a very light schedule behind her.
The Dencheva scoreline is a heavy one, but it came on clay and does not speak directly to how Lachinova handles this surface. What the record shows is a sparse run of play: that 6 September defeat is her only completed match since 11 August, compared with five for Crawley since 16 September. Her hard-court case therefore still rests almost entirely on the June sample rather than on anything she has shown lately.
- 6 September 2026: lost 4-6, 0-6 to Rositsa Dencheva (ranked 201) on clay
- Most recent completed match in the supplied record, 20 days before this qualifying round

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Crawley

1.07fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 93.5%

−18.5ppshort

Crawley has much more hard-court evidence against stronger opposition, while Lachinova has not played on this surface for three months.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Crawley

1.12fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 89.3%

−21.3ppshort

Crawley's second sets are her stronger set on hard courts and she is the higher-ranked player.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Crawley has much more hard-court evidence against stronger opposition, while Lachinova has not played on this surface for three months.
- Crawley is ranked 227, Lachinova 808
- Crawley is 9-5 on hard over 14 tracked matches, with straight-set wins over Avdeeva (189), Bains (376) and Yamalapalli (349)
- Lachinova's hard-court sample is only four matches and none since 20 June
- Crawley's recent defeats came to opponents ranked 111, 161 and 206
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFiona CrawleyEstimated chance75%

Games7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A margin of nine games or more has been unusual for Crawley recently.
- Five of Crawley's last six completed matches were decided by six games or fewer
- Crawley's average margin over those matches is +1
- Lachinova's hard-court matches were all within five games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAdelina Lachinova +8.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's recent matches have mostly stayed inside seven games either way.
- Crawley's recent average game margin is +1 across six completed matches
- Only one of those six matches was decided by more than seven games
- Lachinova's hard-court matches were all decided within five games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAdelina Lachinova +7.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley has rarely built a large game cushion lately, so a six-game buffer favours Lachinova.
- Crawley's last six completed matches average a +1 game margin
- Three of Crawley's last five matches were losses by margins of five to six games
- Lachinova's hard-court margins were within five games in every match
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAdelina Lachinova +6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
When Crawley has faced lower-ranked opposition her wins have usually carried a clear game margin.
- Crawley's straight-set wins over Avdeeva, Bains and Yamalapalli came by +7, +4 and +9 games
- Her overall game margin across her last six completed matches is +1
- Lachinova's hard-court margins were +5, +2 and +4 in wins, -1 in her loss
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFiona Crawley -4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on hard have averaged around nine games for both players.
- Crawley's second sets average 9.2 total games on hard
- Lachinova's second sets average 8.8 total games
- Crawley lost five of 14 second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have tended to run past 20 games.
- Crawley's hard-court matches average 21.8 total games over 14 matches
- Lachinova's hard matches average 23.3 total games over four matches
- Crawley's hard matches average 2.2 sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's recent game margins are small enough that a five-game buffer is often enough for Lachinova.
- Crawley's recent completed matches average a +1 game margin
- Crawley lost two of her last three matches by margins of six and three games
- Lachinova's four hard matches produced totals of 23.3 games on average
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAdelina Lachinova +5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's first sets have averaged just above nine games against stronger opposition.
- Crawley's first sets average 10.1 total games on hard
- Lachinova's first sets average 9.3 total games over four hard matches
- Crawley had three first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Crawley's second sets are her stronger set on hard courts and she is the higher-ranked player.
- Crawley won the second set in 9 of 14 hard matches
- Lachinova won the second set in 3 of 4 hard matches
- Crawley's second sets average 5.2 games won against 4.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFiona CrawleyEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Crawley has a slightly better than even first-set record and faces a lower-ranked opponent.
- Crawley won the first set in 8 of 14 hard matches
- Lachinova won the first set in 3 of 4 hard matches
- Crawley's first sets average 5.2 games won against 4.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFiona CrawleyEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley has finished the majority of her hard matches without dropping a set.
- Seven of Crawley's 14 hard matches were 2-0 wins
- Crawley's hard matches averaged 2.21 sets
- Lachinova's hard set average is 2.5 over only four matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.29
The read
Crawley's most common hard-court result is a straight-sets win, and Lachinova is the lower-ranked player.
- Seven of Crawley's 14 hard matches were 2-0 wins
- Crawley's hard scorelines: 7x 2-0, 2x 2-1, 4x 0-2, 1x 1-2
- Lachinova was beaten 2-0 in two of her four hard matches
BetBugs · Set BettinglostFiona Crawley 2-0Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have more often finished without a tiebreak.
- 8 of Crawley's 14 hard matches had no tiebreak
- 3 of Lachinova's 4 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Crawley's hard matches average 2.21 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Fiona Crawley

10W 5L

6-1 7-6(4)#206Carole Monnet 4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#161Anna Siskova

6-3 2-0 ret.#321Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#189Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#376Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#349Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#111Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#557Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#97Simona Waltert

6-4 6-4#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 7-6(2)#309Lizette Cabrera

6-3 6-3#289Ayana Akli

7-6(1) 6-3#371Eunhye Lee

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(0)#855Lexington Reed

4-6 6-3 6-2#898Carolina Gomez

Adelina Lachinova

9W 6L

6-4 6-0#201Rositsa Dencheva

6-0 ret.#747Amy Sucha

4-6 6-1 15-13—Veronika Kulhava

6-0 7-6(5)—Sara Husar

5-7 6-4 7-6(6)#419Julia Adams

6-3 6-4—Ada Kumru

2-6 6-2 6-2#500Alana Subasic

6-2 6-1—Liliya Piskun

6-4 6-3#87Maria Timofeeva

7-5 6-1#882Danka Kovinic

6-3 6-2#640Irem Kurt

5-7 6-2 6-0#825Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen

6-0 7-5#282Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-1 6-0#156Elsa Jacquemot

6-1 6-3#25Maja Chwalinska

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFiona CrawleyCrawley

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Adelina LachinovaLachinovaAL

Fiona Crawley carries the stronger recent form — Adelina Lachinova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 10/1559.5%+3.4pp62.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 10/1560.8%+3.9pp56.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 10/1544.9%+1.9pp43.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 9/150.9+0.80.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 10/153.21.9 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 10/1550.3%+2.8pp47.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 10/1548.8%+1.7pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 10/1553.7%+2.5pp51.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 10/1552.3%+2.6pp49.7%

Serve · 3–2

59.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 10/15+3.4pp62.9%

60.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 10/15+3.9pp56.9%

44.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 10/15+1.9pp43.0%

0.9Aces / Match15/15 · 9/15+0.80.1

3.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 10/151.9 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

50.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 10/15+2.8pp47.5%

Pressure · 2–0

48.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 10/15+1.7pp47.1%

53.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 10/15+2.5pp51.2%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 10/15+2.6pp49.7%

Fiona Crawley

Adelina Lachinova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Fiona Crawley

Fiona Crawley

Fiona Crawley

Fiona Crawley 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games7 of 8 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Fiona Crawley

Adelina Lachinova

Stat Battle