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Predictions graded

Fiona Crawley #253United States2Lois Boisson #299France1

Sets 2-6 · 6-3 · 7-5Sun 27 Sept 2026, 13:51 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–827%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Crawley · 46 places

Fiona Crawley

United States

American player, born 7 February 2002. Her WTA profile listed her at No. 253 in singles, while Tennis Abstract records a career-high No. 182 on 2 March 2026.

Current ranking: #253
Peak ranking: #182 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Lois Boisson

France

French right-hander born in May 2003. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or Cincinnati workload signal was established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 22:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Both players are one win from the Adana main draw, and Boisson's habit of taking sets off top-100 opponents makes her the narrow favourite, though her 1.44 price to win leaves nothing.

Crawley at 2.75 to win the match and 4.75 to win 2-0 are the two quoted prices worth attention; Boisson at 1.5 for the first set and Under 2.5 sets at 1.45 carry no clear advantage.

Context

Where a player enters says as much about her season as her ranking does: Boisson is contesting 125-level qualifying rather than the WTA 500 and 1000 main draws she played through August. At No. 269 she arrives as the lower-ranked player in this fixture, and her recent results have to be read at qualifying and 125 level rather than from tour-level wins. The counterpoint is that her fall came in a single update, and one large weekly drop can reflect an expiring result as much as a sustained decline.
- Boisson is entered in the Adana Open qualifying draw at a WTA 125
- Boisson lost a large number of ranking places in the rankings update
- Boisson is currently ranked No. 269
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 22:36 · Europe/Bucharest
These are the most recent completed hard-court matches behind Boisson's entry, and both ended in the first round against opponents inside the top 100 rather than against players from her own ranking band. The pattern since August is short stays in tournaments rather than any reported physical problem, and she has answered it by entering 125-level qualifying rather than stepping away from competition. Udvardy was ranked No. 83 for the Guadalajara meeting, so the defeat came from well above Boisson's current ranking.
- Boisson lost to Emma Navarro in the first round of the US Open on 31 August 2026
- Boisson lost to Panna Udvardy in the first round at Guadalajara on 13 September 2026
- Udvardy was ranked No. 83 at the time of the Guadalajara meeting
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 22:36 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 26 Sep 2026
Crawley's 14 hard-court matches since 30 July have averaged 2.21 sets, with only three going the full three sets.
Crawley settles matches in two sets more often than not, and that efficiency is the clearest argument for her in a qualifying final where both players are working from the same rest. It is measured on 14 matches, so it is a pattern rather than a settled habit, and Boisson's own tendency to take matches deep is the counterweight.
- Crawley's 14 completed hard-court matches from 30 July to 26 September 2026 average 2.21 sets and 21.9 games
- Eleven of those 14 matches ended in straight sets and only three went to a third set
- Six of the 14 matches included a tiebreak, three of them in the opening set, and one further match was excluded from the sample as a retirement
Boisson has played seven completed hard-court matches since 1 August, and four of them needed a third set.
Boisson's hard-court matches run longer than her opponent's, and every one of her four defeats went to a decider after she had already taken a set. That makes a quick, one-sided finish for either player less straightforward than Crawley's straight-set record alone would suggest.
- Boisson's seven completed hard-court matches from 1 August to 26 September 2026 average 24.6 games and 2.57 sets
- Four of the seven reached a deciding set: she won three matches in straight sets and lost four in three sets
- Two further matches in the same window were excluded from the sample as retirements

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boisson has been taking sets off top-100 opponents while Crawley's recent defeats came against players ranked around No. 160-200, so Boisson holds a narrow edge.
- Boisson is 3-4 on hard in her last seven completed matches, losing three-setters to Navarro (No. 23), Parry (No. 30) and Udvardy (No. 73).
- Crawley is 9-5 on hard in 14 matches but lost her last two completed matches to opponents ranked No. 206 and No. 161.
- Boisson has won 5 of 7 first sets and 5 of 7 second sets on hard; Crawley 8 of 14 and 9 of 14.
- Rankings are close: Crawley No. 227, Boisson No. 269, and they have never met.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLois BoissonEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's matches on this surface have generally stayed within a few games, favouring a cushion of four.
- Crawley's hard-court matches include wins of 13-9 and 16-12 in games.
- Crawley lost her last completed match to Siskova by three games (14-17).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFiona Crawley +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's matches have been short on games on average, and straight-set finishes dominate her record.
- Crawley's 14 hard-court matches average 21.9 games in total.
- Crawley's straight-set wins include 6-2 6-1 and 6-4 6-1 scorelines.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Crawley's opening sets have regularly gone past nine games, with first-set tiebreaks in a fair share of her matches.
- Crawley's first sets average 10.1 total games.
- Six of Crawley's 14 hard matches had a tiebreak, three in the first set.
- Boisson's first sets average 9.4 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boisson's second sets have run long, with tiebreaks in a good share of her matches on this surface.
- Boisson's second sets average 10.1 total games.
- Three of Boisson's seven hard-court matches had a second-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boisson's wins on this surface have come by comfortable game margins, which is what this line needs.
- Boisson's qualifying win was 12-2 in games and her win over Krueger 12-5.
- Crawley's two most recent defeats were by six games (7-13) and three games (14-17).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLois Boisson -1.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both players have mostly finished their matches quickly, and Crawley in particular seldom goes the distance.
- 11 of Crawley's 14 hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
- All three of Boisson's hard-court wins came in straight sets.
- Crawley's hard-court matches average 2.21 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Boisson has started well on this surface, winning the large majority of her first sets.
- Boisson has won 5 of 7 first sets on hard.
- Crawley has lost 6 of 14 opening sets.
- Boisson opened qualifying with a 6-1 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLois BoissonEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boisson's second sets on this surface have been her most consistent, with more wins than losses and a positive game share.
- Boisson has won 5 of 7 second sets on hard, averaging 5.4 games won to 4.7 lost.
- Three of Boisson's seven hard-court matches had a second-set tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLois BoissonEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both records, which lowers the chance of a tiebreak appearing.
- 11 of Crawley's 14 hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
- Three of Boisson's seven hard-court results were straight-set matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Previous match context available

Fiona Crawley

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-3#808Adelina Lachinova 6-1 7-6(4)#206Carole Monnet 4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#161Anna Siskova

6-3 2-0 ret.#321Manon Leonard

6-4 6-1#189Julia Avdeeva

7-6(4) 6-3#376Naiktha Bains

6-2 6-1#349Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-4 6-3#111Julia Grabher

6-4 6-3#557Ekaterina Ovcharenko

7-5 6-3#97Simona Waltert

6-4 6-4#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-1 7-6(2)#309Lizette Cabrera

6-3 6-3#289Ayana Akli

7-6(1) 6-3#371Eunhye Lee

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(0)#855Lexington Reed

Lois Boisson

5W 10L

6-1 6-1—Piraye Ozdemir

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#73Panna Udvardy

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-3#23Emma Navarro

6-1 ret.#711Capucine Jauffret

4-6 6-4 6-3#30Diane Parry

6-3 ret.#12Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-2#71Ashlyn Krueger

4-6 6-1 6-3#79Antonia Ruzic

6-1 7-6(4)#137Emiliana Arango

6-4 1-6 6-3#1Elena Rybakina

6-4 5-7 6-3#91Solana Sierra

6-2 6-2#21Anna Kalinskaya

6-4 6-3#15Victoria Mboko

6-3 7-6(4)#40Xinyu Wang

6-7(5) 6-1 6-2#124Dominika Salkova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFiona CrawleyCrawley

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Lois BoissonBoissonLB

Fiona Crawley carries the stronger recent form — Lois Boisson's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.7%+2.9pp61.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1561.7%+7.2pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1544.1%+2.2pp41.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.2+3.54.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.41.3 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.3%+11.6pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1547.0%+16.3pp30.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1555.3%+4.7pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.3%+3.6pp48.7%

Serve · 2–3

58.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.9pp61.6%

61.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.2pp68.9%

44.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp41.9%

1.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.54.7

3.4Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

50.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+11.6pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

47.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+16.3pp30.7%

55.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp48.7%

Fiona Crawley

Lois Boisson

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Fiona Crawley

Fiona Crawley 2-0

Lois Boisson

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Fiona Crawley

Lois Boisson

Stat Battle