Arthur Fils #24France22 – 1Martin Damm #94United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Fils is far higher ranked and has been beating top-10 hard-court opponents, while Damm has been trading wins and losses at a much lower level.

• Fils is ranked No. 11 and has won 9 of 12 hard-court matches in this window.
• Damm is No. 106 and stands 6-6 on hard courts over the same period.
• Fils beat Tiafoe, Cobolli, De Minaur and Lehecka on hard courts in August.
• The two have never met.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Damm has been competitive in every recent hard-court match, so a seven-game buffer is a wide margin to concede.

• All six of Damm's recent completed hard-court matches stayed within five games of his opponent.
• Damm won 51% of games across his last 15 completed matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Fils has been winning hard-court matches by four games or more, enough to clear a small negative line.

• Fils's last six completed hard-court match margins were -6, +4, +5, +7, +5 and +7 games.
• He finished three games or more ahead in five of those six matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Most of the recent evidence points to straight-set finishes short of 23 games, with Fils winning 2-0 in six of 11.

• Fils's 11-match hard-court set sample averages 21.3 total games.
• Fils's 2-0 wins in that sample came in 17 to 19 games.
• Damm's last six completed hard-court matches averaged 25.2 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Six games to three or four is the common shape of these players' opening sets.

• Damm's first sets average 9.5 total games with no tiebreaks in 11 matches.
• Fils's first-set games average is 6.1 won and 3.8 lost.
• Six of Fils's 11 hard-court set-sample matches were won 2-0.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The two players pull this line in opposite directions, leaving the second-set total close to even.

• Fils's second sets average 9.4 total games.
• Damm's second sets average 10.4 total games.
• Across both samples, second sets averaged 9.9 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fils is still the stronger player across a full match, but second sets have been much closer for both.

• Fils is 6-5 in second sets on hard courts in the set sample.
• Damm is 7-4 in second sets.
• Fils's second-set games average is 4.8 won to 4.5 lost.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tiebreaks appeared in fewer than half of both players' recent hard-court matches.

• Fils's 11-match set sample produced five matches with a tiebreak.
• Damm's produced four.
• Damm's first sets contained no tiebreaks in 11 matches.