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Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia0Leylah Annie Fernandez #34Canada2

Sets 2-6 · 5-7Fri 25 Sept 2026, 10:51 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions5–645%

Edges6–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 29 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Canada

A 23-year-old left-hander who reached a career-high No. 13 on August 8, 2022. She has won five WTA singles titles and was the 2021 US Open runner-up.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: #13 · 2022
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 02:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Top seed Andreeva meets the player who has beaten her in both hard-court meetings, most recently 6-1 6-4 in Toronto in August.

Andreeva is ranked No. 5 and has the better hard-court numbers; Fernandez has won both her Singapore matches in straight sets. Andreeva at 1.25 asks more than the case supports. Fernandez at 4.0 to win, 6.5 for a 2-0 win, 3.2 for either of the first two sets and 1.9 with a 4.5-game start are the prices that hold up.

Context

Pegula's withdrawal removed the world No. 3 from the field and put Andreeva on the top seeding line, so she meets this quarterfinal as the highest-ranked player in the draw rather than the second seed. The bye that comes with a top-four seeding in a 28-player draw is the only measurable scheduling difference between the two before Friday: Andreeva has two completed matches in Singapore, Fernandez three. That gap reflects draw mechanics rather than form, since Fernandez's sixth seeding cost her the extra opening round. What the reshaped field does change is the calibre of opposition left in Andreeva's path, because the top half kept its seeds.
- Nine players withdrew before the event, including Jessica Pegula, Diana Shnaider, Sorana Cirstea, Anastasia Potapova and Ekaterina Alexandrova.
- With Pegula out, Andreeva moved to the No. 1 seed, followed by Amanda Anisimova, Alexandra Eala and defending champion Elise Mertens.
- The 28-player main draw gives the top four seeds a direct place in the second round.
- Andreeva's round-of-16 win over Sasnovich was her first completed match of the week.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Andreeva's last completed tour match before Singapore was a three-set US Open quarterfinal in which she led Gauff by a set and held two match points, the deepest she has gone in New York. That result frames the current state of her hard-court game after winning Roland-Garros this season, and it stands as the reference point until she has more than one match on this swing. The 6-2 6-2 win over Sasnovich is the only competitive evidence since, so Friday is her first hard-court test against a top-35 opponent in about two weeks. Losing from two match points is a result detail rather than a physical concern, and her Singapore week carries no sign of an ongoing problem.
- Gauff saved two match points and came back from a set down to win the quarterfinal 2-6 7-6(7) 6-2.
- It was Andreeva's first US Open quarterfinal.
- Andreeva returned to competition in Singapore as her first event after the US swing.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Toronto was the pair's most recent meeting and Fernandez won it 6-1 6-4 from well below Andreeva in the rankings, which is why the matchup sits closer than the standings suggest. Andreeva's two wins in the series came under other conditions, and she has not yet beaten Fernandez on a hard court. The August match was played outdoors in the North American swing rather than indoors at The Kallang, so the venue does not carry over, only the matchup pattern of early ball-striking against a defensive baseliner. The result remains the clearest recent evidence of how Fernandez handles the higher-ranked player in this pairing.
- Fernandez won their most recent meeting 6-1 6-4 in Toronto in August 2026.
- The head-to-head is level at 2-2, with Fernandez holding both hard-court wins.
- Both players won their round-of-16 matches in straight sets to set up the rematch.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Andreeva won her only completed match in Singapore 6-2 6-2 and has started quickly throughout this hard-court run.
Fernandez also won nine of her 11 opening sets in her own hard-court sample, so this is a pair of fast starters rather than a one-sided edge. Andreeva's second sets in the same window were less secure, with three of her 11 second sets going to a tiebreak against none in the first.
- Andreeva won the first set in 9 of 11 completed hard-court matches, losing an average of 2.45 games per opening set (5 August to 23 September 2026).
- None of those 11 first sets went to a tiebreak, and her first sets averaged 7.9 total games.
- In the same 11-match sample she won the second set 8-3, and three of those second sets reached a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva holds the better serve and total-point numbers on this surface and a much higher ranking, even though the head-to-head is level.
- Andreeva is 8-3 on hard courts over her last 11 completed matches, winning 72% of sets and 60.5% of games.
- On hard courts she wins 72.1% of first-serve points and 55.1% of total points, against 66.8% and 52.8% for Fernandez.
- Rankings: Andreeva No. 5, Fernandez No. 31.
- The head-to-head is 2-2, but Fernandez won their most recent meeting 6-1 6-4 on hard in August 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMirra AndreevaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both players on hard courts have averaged comfortably under 10 games.
- Combined first-set averages are 7.9 games for Andreeva and 8.5 for Fernandez on hard courts.
- No first-set tiebreaks in either player's 11 hard-court matches.
- Andreeva lost 2.45 games per opening set and Fernandez 3.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Fernandez has been competitive on hard courts and won their last meeting, so a five-game cushion is a fair ask.
- Fernandez has lost only 4 of 11 hard-court matches and won 58% of her games in them.
- Her straight-set wins this week were 6-2 6-3 and 6-4 6-3, both comfortable.
- She beat Andreeva 6-1 6-4 in their most recent meeting in August 2026.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLeylah Annie Fernandez +4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's hard-court wins have mostly been by wide margins, so a three-game cushion is within reach.
- Andreeva has won 60.5% of hard-court games over her last 11 matches; Fernandez has won 58%.
- Her recent hard-court straight-set wins came by margins of 8, 5, 10 and 8 games.
- Her two hard-court losses this window were a three-set defeat to Gauff and the straight-set loss to Fernandez.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMirra Andreeva -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets on hard courts have averaged just under 10 games.
- Second-set averages of 9.36 and 9.27 total games sit just below this line.
- Fernandez has played only one second-set tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches.
- Her two second sets in Singapore were 6-3 and 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their history includes long sets and a 22-game meeting, making a total just above 19.5 plausible.
- Andreeva's hard-court matches average 19.5 total games; Fernandez's average 19.3.
- Their four previous meetings averaged 20.8 games, including a 7-6 6-3 and a three-setter.
- Andreeva's hard-court matches produced two three-setters in her last six.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both players have mostly finished matches in two sets on this surface.
- Eight of Andreeva's last 11 hard-court matches and nine of Fernandez's finished in straight sets.
- Andreeva's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets; Fernandez's 2.18.
- Both players won their Singapore matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has been the stronger opening-set player on this surface and starts as the higher-ranked player.
- Andreeva has won set one in 9 of her 11 hard-court matches, losing 2.45 games per set on average.
- She took the opening set 6-2 against Sasnovich in Singapore.
- Fernandez also won set one in 9 of 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMirra AndreevaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's second-set record on this surface is the stronger of the two.
- Andreeva has won the second set in 8 of 11 hard-court matches, three of which went to a tiebreak.
- Her second sets average 5.45 games won to 3.91 lost.
- Fernandez has won the second set in 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMirra AndreevaEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Short sets have been the norm for both players, so a tiebreak is the less likely outcome.
- Eight of Andreeva's 11 hard-court matches and 10 of Fernandez's had no tiebreak.
- Andreeva's opening sets have averaged 7.9 games and Fernandez's 8.5.
- Both players have finished most recent matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player serves at a rate that regularly clears seven aces in a match.
- Andreeva 3.1 aces per match and Fernandez 2.2 on hard courts, about 5.3 combined.
- Andreeva has 34 aces across 11 hard-court matches; Fernandez 24.
- Neither player's first-serve points won depends heavily on free points.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court double-fault rate is below this line even allowing for a longer match.
- Combined hard-court double-fault averages are 3.8 for Andreeva and 3.6 for Fernandez, about 7.4.
- Andreeva has 42 and Fernandez 40 double faults across 11 hard-court matches each.
- Both players' first-serve percentage on hard courts is around 63%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Mirra Andreeva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2-2 (4 meetings)

L6-1 6-4Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#31Aug 7, 2026

W7-6(1) 6-3Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#31Apr 28, 2026

L3-6 6-1 6-3Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#31Oct 12, 2023

W6-3 6-4Mirra Andreeva#5vLeylah Annie Fernandez#31Apr 26, 2023

4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

10W 5L

6-2 6-2#132Aliaksandra Sasnovich

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-3#24Anastasia Potapova

6-2 7-6(5)#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-0 6-2#100Eva Lys

6-2 6-2#46Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#10Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#46Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#31Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#49Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#44Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#74Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#27Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#25Maja Chwalinska

Leylah Annie Fernandez

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#70Alycia Parks 6-2 6-3#322Kyoka Okamura

1-6 6-4 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#55Shuai Zhang

3-6 6-2 6-2#82Xiyu Wang

6-4 6-4#17Naomi Osaka

6-1 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

6-2 6-2#92Renata Zarazua

6-2 7-6(1)#18Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-4#74Magda Linette

6-1 7-6(3)#46Janice Tjen

6-3 6-4#40Xinyu Wang

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#54Katie Boulter

6-4 7-6(1)#56Zeynep Sonmez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Leylah Annie FernandezFernandezLF

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Leylah Annie Fernandez's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.9%—62.3%

1st Serve Won69.8%+4.3pp65.5%

2nd Serve Won47.5%—47.5%

Aces / Match3.5+0.62.9

Double Faults / Match3.80.7 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+3.4pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.8%+3.0pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved55.6%+7.6pp63.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.9%+2.6pp51.3%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

62.9%1st Serve In—62.3%

69.8%1st Serve Won+4.3pp65.5%

47.5%2nd Serve Won—47.5%

3.5Aces / Match+0.62.9

3.8Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+3.4pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

50.8%Break Pts Converted+3.0pp47.8%

55.6%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp63.2%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won+2.6pp51.3%

Mirra Andreeva

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Leylah Annie Fernandez +4.5

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mirra Andreeva

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Stat Battle