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Predictions graded

Yexin Ma #181China0Kimberly Birrell #69Australia2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 03:12 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–370%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKimberly Birrell · 112 places

Yexin Ma

China

Public profile sources identify her as a right-handed Chinese player born June 10, 1999, with a career high of No. 165. No reliable current injury, return-from-absence, coaching, or surface-preference report was located.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #165
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kimberly Birrell

Australia

WTA lists hard as her favourite surface. She reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 60 on 5 May 2025; older elbow-surgery history is not verified as an active issue in August 2026.

Current ranking: #69
Peak ranking: #60 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Second seed Kimberly Birrell is the likelier winner, but 1.38 asks far more than her 2-5 hard-court run and a first-round tiebreak justify.

Yexin Ma with a 2.5-game start at 2.4, Ma to take the first set at 2.6, Ma at 3 to win the match, over 22.5 games at 2.3 and a deciding set at 2.6 are the quotes that hold up.

Context

Ma has been on court three times in four days at this venue: two qualifying wins without dropping a set, then a three-set first-round win over Emerson Jones in which she lost the opening set. Birrell has played once here, in straight sets, so Ma's week carries five extra sets. The repeated matches are useful acclimatisation to these courts, while the accumulated load is the trade-off. Both players had the same single rest day before this match.
- Ma completed two Seoul qualifying rounds before the first round, winning both comfortably
- Her first-round win over Emerson Jones required three sets after she lost the opening set 3-6
- Seoul first-round order of play placed her match against Jones on Tuesday
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Yexin Ma, the world No. 175 qualifier, carries the only head-to-head win into this second-round match against the No. 2 seed.
One completed meeting is a small sample rather than a trend, but it shows that Ma has beaten Birrell on this surface and that the two can stay close across two tight sets.
- Yexin Ma beat Kimberly Birrell 7-6(2) 6-4 on 28 July 2026
- The match was settled in straight sets over 23 games
- It is the only meeting between the two in the supplied record
Birrell's serve is a real weapon when it lands, given 64.2% of first-serve points won in the sample, but 93 double faults in 15 matches keeps return games open even in matches where she is otherwise serving well.
- 93 double faults in 15 tracked matches, an average of 6.2 per match
- 38 aces across the same 15-match window
- 62.3% of first serves in (706 of 1133) and 64.2% of first-serve points won
The draw released makes Birrell the second seed in Seoul, behind only Jelena Ostapenko, and she arrived within a few places of the career-high ranking she set in May 2025. Her opponent entered at No. 175 through qualifying, so this is the draw's second seed against an unseeded qualifier. The seeding sets the ranking expectation for her week rather than describing her current form.
- The main draw published lists Birrell as the No. 2 seed, behind Jelena Ostapenko at No. 1
- She was listed as the second seed while close to the highest ranking of her career
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birrell is the higher-ranked player and has been playing against top-100 opposition, which makes her the stronger side in a close match.
- Ranked No. 60 and seeded second in Seoul, against No. 175
- Hard-court first-serve points won 60.5% (204/337)
- Beat Zidansek 7-6(2) 6-4 in the first round
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKimberly BirrellEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Ma's games-won rate is level with Birrell's and most of her recent results stayed within a couple of games.
- Ma hard-court games won 50.9% (163/320); Birrell 44.4% (72/162)
- Ma's last six hard matches by game margin: +7, +8, +9, -2, +1, -4
- Their July meeting finished 13-10 in games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYexin Ma +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this sample have been shorter than opening sets, particularly for Ma.
- Ma set2 total games average 8.2
- Only one tiebreak in Birrell's seven hard-court set2s
- Birrell set2 total games average 9.7
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Birrell's opening sets on hard have regularly run long, with four tiebreaks in seven matches.
- Birrell set1 total games average 10.9
- Four tiebreaks in Birrell's seven hard-court set1s
- Ma set1 total games average 9.6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players' recent hard matches average around the line and their only meeting was a 23-game straight-setter.
- Birrell hard-court match games average 23.1
- Ma hard-court match games average 21.3
- Their July meeting had 23 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome in both players' hard-court samples.
- Ma straight-set results: 9 of 15 hard matches
- Birrell straight-set results: 5 of 7 hard matches
- Total sets average: Ma 2.4, Birrell 2.29
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Ma has started her recent matches well while Birrell has lost six of seven opening sets on hard.
- Ma hard-court set1 record 9-6
- Birrell hard-court set1 record 1-6
- Ma won five of her last six opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYexin MaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's second sets have been weaker than her first sets and Birrell's serve gives her a better base later in the match.
- Ma hard-court set2 record 7-8
- Birrell hard-court set2 record 3-4, 4.57 games won per set
- Birrell first-serve points won 60.5% on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKimberly BirrellEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Birrell's double-fault rate on hard is high and the two players together average above the line.
- Birrell 8.0 double faults per hard-court match (56 in 7)
- Ma 2.9 double faults per hard-court match (44 in 15)
- Combined hard-court average about 10.9 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's serve produces many free points, keeping the combined total near the line.
- Ma 2.3 aces per hard-court match (35 in 15)
- Birrell 2.1 aces per hard-court match (15 in 7)
- Birrell double faults more than she aces on hard (56 to 15)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ma's matches have usually avoided tiebreaks, including her last two Seoul wins.
- Ma: tiebreak in 3 of 15 hard-court matches
- Ma set1 tiebreaks: 2 in 15 matches
- Birrell: tiebreak in 5 of 7 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Kimberly Birrell: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Kimberly Birrell matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Kimberly Birrell4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·WTA Memphis

#194Yexin Ma2-0#66Kimberly Birrell

BetBugsKimberly Birrell to win·62%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

WTA Memphis

#194Yexin Ma2-0#66Kimberly Birrell

Kimberly Birrell to win

62%probability

Yexin Ma won

Missed

24 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#51Petra Marcinko2-0#73Kimberly Birrell

BetBugsKimberly Birrell to win·58%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#51Petra Marcinko2-0#73Kimberly Birrell

Kimberly Birrell to win

58%probability

Petra Marcinko won

Missed

20 Jun·WTA Eastbourne

#633Indianna Spink0-2#73Kimberly Birrell

BetBugsKimberly Birrell to win·82%

Matched

20 Jun 2026

WTA Eastbourne

#633Indianna Spink0-2#73Kimberly Birrell

Kimberly Birrell to win

82%probability

Kimberly Birrell won

Matched

13 Jun·WTA Nottingham

#286Mingge Xu0-2#74Kimberly Birrell

BetBugsKimberly Birrell to win·78%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

WTA Nottingham

#286Mingge Xu0-2#74Kimberly Birrell

Kimberly Birrell to win

78%probability

Kimberly Birrell won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(2) 6-4Yexin Ma#175vKimberly Birrell#60Jul 28, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Yexin Ma

8W 7L

3-6 6-0 6-2#133Emerson Jones

6-3 6-1#371Eunhye Lee 6-3 6-0#767Carol Zhao

5-7 6-4 6-4#450Tahlia Kokkinis

6-4 4-6 7-6(10)#408Kristiana Sidorova

3-6 6-2 6-3#398Jiaqi Wang

6-3 6-2#455Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#218Clara Burel

6-2 6-1#238Katrina Scott

6-1 6-3#512Clervie Ngounoue

6-2 6-3#68Caty McNally

7-6(2) 6-4#60Kimberly Birrell

7-6(3) 2-6 6-0#372Aoi Ito

6-3 3-6 6-1#603Hong Yi Cody Wong

6-3 6-2#483Dana Guzman

Kimberly Birrell

6W 9L

7-6(2) 6-4#140Tamara Zidansek

6-1 2-6 6-3#27Ekaterina Alexandrova

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#75Petra Marcinko

7-6(2) 6-3#85Darja Vidmanova

6-2 6-2#76Kamilla Rakhimova

7-6(7) 6-4#65Viktorija Golubic

7-6(2) 6-4#175Yexin Ma

6-3 6-4#16Sorana Cirstea

6-3 0-6 6-2#81Alina Korneeva

6-1 6-4#75Petra Marcinko

6-3 7-6(6)#44Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-0#36Peyton Stearns

7-6(6) 6-4#598Indianna Spink

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#29Ann Li

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#77Katie Volynets

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YMYexin MaMa

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Kimberly BirrellBirrellKB

Yexin Ma carries the stronger recent form — Kimberly Birrell's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.2%+5.1pp62.3%

1st Serve Won59.1%+5.1pp64.2%

2nd Serve Won49.9%+8.7pp41.2%

Aces / Match2.3—2.5

Double Faults / Match2.93.3 fewer6.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.9%+4.8pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.5%+5.4pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+2.3pp52.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+2.0pp48.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.2%1st Serve In+5.1pp62.3%

59.1%1st Serve Won+5.1pp64.2%

49.9%2nd Serve Won+8.7pp41.2%

2.3Aces / Match—2.5

2.9Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer6.2

Return · 1–0

46.9%Return Pts Won+4.8pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

52.5%Break Pts Converted+5.4pp47.1%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp52.3%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+2.0pp48.8%

Yexin Ma

Kimberly Birrell

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yexin Ma +2.5

Yexin Ma

Over 22.5

Yexin Ma

Over 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Yexin Ma

Kimberly Birrell

Stat Battle