United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Maloney #864United States1Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #316Brazil2

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 2-6Wed 23 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIgor Ribeiro Marcondes · 548 places

Patrick Maloney

United States

Maloney, 26, is a 193 cm right-hander. His recorded career-best singles ranking is No. 319.

Current ranking: #864
Peak ranking: #319
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Brazil

Reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 258 in March 2022. He was reported to be returning to the circuit in July 2026 after lateral-meniscus surgery.

Current ranking: #316
Peak ranking: #258 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 09:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Marcondes is 540 places higher and won his opener without dropping serve, while Maloney — No. 864 — beat No.

202 Shick. Marcondes is the likelier winner, and straight sets is the most plausible shape. None of the reviewed prices offers anything: Marcondes to win at 1.6, for the second set at 1.6, for a 2-0 win at 2.3, or Maloney at 2.2 all ask more than the evidence supports.

Context

Maloney is ranked No. 864, so a straight-sets win over an opponent at No. 202 is a stronger form indicator than his own ranking implies, and he closed it by taking the second-set tie-break rather than letting the match run to a decider. That matters in this second round because Marcondes is the higher-ranked player and the fixture is played on the same hard court where Maloney has just produced his best recent result. The limitation is his thin hard-court record at this level this season, with losses to players outside the top 400 sitting alongside this win, so the Shick result reads as one strong performance rather than an established level.
- Maloney won 6-3 7-6(5) against Braden Shick, ranked No. 202, in the San Diego Challenger 2 first round .
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 09:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Maloney has been level in first sets on hard courts (6-5) but has lost nine of eleven second sets in the same 11-match sample.
If this second-round match reaches a second set, the tracked record marks Maloney as the more vulnerable of the two, which is why Marcondes is the lean to take that set. The caveat is the sample itself: 11 matches over roughly a year, one retired match excluded, and Marcondes' own second-set record is only 2-2 from four hard-court matches.
- Maloney's completed, non-retired hard-court matches: 11, spanning 17 September 2025 to 21 September 2026, with a 2-9 second-set record, a 6-5 first-set record and an average of 4.0 games won in second sets.
Marcondes, 29 and the higher-ranked player at No. 324, came through his opener without conceding a break, which is the clearest available signal about how his game is transferring to this hard court. It matters for the contrast in routes: Maloney needed a tie-break to close out a straight-sets win, while Marcondes held serve through both sets. The specific limitation is that his 2026 hard-court sample is much smaller than his clay results, so one comfortable first-round win does not settle whether that level holds across a full week.
- Marcondes did not lose serve in a 6-1 6-3 first-round win over Ozan Baris, ranked No. 416, at the San Diego Challenger 2 .
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 09:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Marcondes' hard-court sample is small but sharply defined: every set in it was settled before 6-6.
The pattern cuts both ways for this second round: it supports a straight-sets outcome whichever player wins, but two of those four matches were straight-sets defeats, including a 4-6 2-6 loss to No. 672 Max Purcell on 24 August. Four matches is too few to treat the pattern as a reliable habit.
- Marcondes' four completed hard-court matches, 17 August to 22 September 2026: two 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, no deciding sets and no tie-breaks; one retired match is excluded from the sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

−5.5ppshort

Maloney has lost nine of eleven second sets on hard courts, a clear weak phase, while Marcondes has been even in his small sample.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

Marcondes sits 540 ranking places higher, has the better recent win rate and opened here with a clean straight-sets win in which he was not broken.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 2-0

2.30fair 2.44

BetBugs 41% · Market 43.5%

−2.5ppshort

Marcondes has won his hard-court matches in straight sets, including a comfortable opener here, and the ranking gap points the same way.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Marcondes sits 540 ranking places higher, has the better recent win rate and opened here with a clean straight-sets win in which he was not broken.
- ATP No. 324 vs No. 864
- Overall last 14: 8-6
- First round: beat Ozan Baris (No. 416) 6-1 6-3 without losing serve
- Hard-court sample tracked: only 4 matches (2-2)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maloney's hard-court matches have consistently run long, including two recent three-set wins and a 6-3 7-6 opener, which pulls the expected total above the line.
- Maloney hard-court matches average 22.9 games
- Maloney's last six hard matches average 24.3 games
- Marcondes' four hard matches average 17.0 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players have typically finished around or below nine games, and neither has shown much tiebreak tendency in opening sets.
- Maloney set 1 games average: 9.3 total
- Marcondes set 1 games average: 8.8 total
- Only one tiebreak in Maloney's 11 hard first sets, none for Marcondes in four
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maloney's second sets regularly run past ten games on hard courts, which puts the line slightly in favour of the over.
- Maloney set 2 games average: 10.1 total
- Marcondes set 2 games average: 8.3 total
- Two tiebreaks in Maloney's 11 hard second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' completed hard-court matches usually finish in two sets, and Marcondes in particular has not been taken to a deciding set in any tracked hard match.
- 11 of 15 combined hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Maloney hard-court scorelines: seven 2-0/0-2 results in 11
- Marcondes hard-court scorelines: 2-0 twice, 0-2 twice
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Maloney has lost nine of eleven second sets on hard courts, a clear weak phase, while Marcondes has been even in his small sample.
- Maloney set 2 on hard: 2-9
- Marcondes set 2 on hard: 2-2
- Maloney set 2 games won average: 4.0
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The ranking gap and Marcondes' strong start in the first round give him the slight edge, but Maloney's own first-set record keeps this close.
- Marcondes set 1 on hard: 2-2
- Maloney set 1 on hard: 6-5
- Marcondes won his opening set 6-1 in round one
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIgor Ribeiro MarcondesEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Across the combined hard-court evidence only about a quarter of matches contained a tiebreak, and Marcondes' sets have been particularly decisive.
- Marcondes: no tiebreaks in four hard matches
- Combined tiebreak rate: 4 of 15 hard matches
- Most sets in these samples finished before 6-6
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%

Prediction history

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Igor Ribeiro Marcondes matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Igor Ribeiro Marcondes4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1—Linus Lagerbohm

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·65%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1—Linus Lagerbohm

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

65%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Matched

20 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-0#607Leonardo Rossi

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-0#607Leonardo Rossi

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

62%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Matched

19 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1#867Alan Wazny

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·62%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#324Igor Ribeiro Marcondes2-1#867Alan Wazny

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

62%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Matched

7 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#565Filip Planinsek2-0#328Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugsIgor Ribeiro Marcondes to win·65%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#565Filip Planinsek2-0#328Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes to win

65%probability

Filip Planinsek won

Missed

Previous match context available

Patrick Maloney

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(5)#202Braden Shick

7-5 6-3#148Michael Mmoh

6-3 5-7 7-6(3)#286Alastair Gray

5-2 ret.#602Bryce Nakashima

6-2 6-3#513Evan Zhu

6-1 3-6 6-3#297Johannus Monday

6-3 3-6 6-3—Tygen Goldammer

4-6 6-3 6-2#513Evan Zhu

6-3 7-6(9)#500Hiroki Moriya

7-6(4) 6-3#113Yibing Wu

3-6 6-3 6-4#442Garrett Johns

6-3 6-4#249Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-3#336Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-4#399Blaise Bicknell

6-2 6-3#446James Kent Trotter

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

8W 7L

6-1 6-3#416Ozan Baris

6-2 6-2#167Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 6-2#672Max Purcell

6-7(3) 6-3 ret.#197Lautaro Midon

6-4 6-2#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-2 6-2#186Diego Dedura

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

4-6 6-4 6-3#846Linus Lagerbohm

7-5 6-2#545Leonardo Rossi

7-5 4-6 6-0#815Alan Wazny

7-6(7) 7-5#197Lautaro Midon

6-4 7-6(5)#175Gonzalo Bueno

7-6(4) 6-3#491Filip Jeff Planinsek

4-6 7-6(4) 6-1#207Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(4) 6-0#451Luca Staeheli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PMPatrick MaloneyMaloney

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Igor Ribeiro MarcondesMarcondesIM

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes carries the stronger recent form — Patrick Maloney's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1564.2%+4.0pp68.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.4%+3.3pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.4%+8.0pp55.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.2+0.63.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.11.7 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1535.8%+4.2pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1540.0%+5.5pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.7%+9.9pp52.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.2%+2.0pp51.2%

Serve · 2–3

64.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.0pp68.2%

69.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp66.1%

47.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.0pp55.4%

4.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.63.6

3.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.7 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp45.5%

62.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+9.9pp52.8%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp51.2%