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Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2Aliaksandra Sasnovich #138Belarus0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Wed 23 Sept 2026, 10:41 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions9–190%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 133 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Belarus

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 29 in September 2022. The ITF lists hard court as her preferred surface; WTA lists Dzmitry Klimenko as her current coach.

Current ranking: #138
Peak ranking: #29 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 08:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreeva plays her first match of the week in Singapore as the top seed against No.

132 Sasnovich, who has already won here and arrives off a first-round upset. Andreeva is the likely winner, probably in two sets. The prices that hold up are Sasnovich to take the second set at 4.75 and Sasnovich to win the match at 7; Andreeva's short prices on the opening set, a two-set match and a 2-0 win offer nothing.

Context

The 7-5, 6-0 scoreline over Kasatkina is by some distance Sasnovich's best WTA-level result of a season in which she has spent much of the summer in qualifying and lower-tier draws, and her 6-0 second set is the kind of close-out she has rarely produced this year. It matters here because it is her only recent reference point against a player of recognised quality, and it came on the same indoor hard court on which this match will be played. The limitation is that Kasatkina sits outside the top 80 and it was only Sasnovich's fifth WTA main-draw win of 2026, so the win shows a high level rather than a sustained one.
- Sasnovich defeated Daria Kasatkina 7-5, 6-0 in the first round in Singapore
- The win was just her fifth WTA main-draw victory of the 2026 season
- The result levelled Sasnovich's head-to-head with Kasatkina at 5-5
- Kasatkina finished 2025 ranked No. 37 and is a former top-10 player
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 08:34 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co.uk · 21 Sep 2026
Andreeva comes into Singapore off a two-week gap since that quarterfinal in New York, so this is her first competitive tennis since a three-set loss in which she served for the match and held two match points. That result frames the current read on her level: she was one point from a US Open semifinal, and her only previous quarterfinal of the season ended in her Roland-Garros title. The counterweight is that the loss is still a defeat against a top-five opponent, and the break means there is no fresh evidence of how her game has settled back onto indoor hard courts.
- Andreeva led Gauff 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-2 before losing the quarterfinal
- She held two match points in that match
- It was her first quarterfinal appearance since winning the Roland-Garros title
- She then arrived in Singapore without another competitive match
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 08:34 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co.uk · 10 Sep 2026
The bye is the standard reward for the top seed, but it leaves Andreeva without a competitive hit on this court while Sasnovich has already completed a match here and adjusted to the indoor conditions. Andreeva's ranking of No. 5 against Sasnovich's No. 132 is the wider context, and the gap in level is the reason the bye is a minor inconvenience rather than a genuine handicap. The practical question is whether Andreeva's first match of the week takes time to settle, which is a recurring pattern worth watching rather than a forecast.
- Andreeva is the top seed in Singapore and received a first-round bye
- Sasnovich has already played and won a round at the venue
- Andreeva is ranked No. 5 and Sasnovich No. 132
- This is Andreeva's first on-court appearance of the tournament
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 08:34 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co.uk · 23 Sep 2026
The single previous meeting is a two-year-old clay-court match in Iasi, so the scoreline reflects conditions that do not exist here. That makes it a useful record of the level gap between them but a weak guide to an indoor hard-court contest, where the surfaces and the season stage are entirely different. The honest read is that the series offers little predictive weight, and the current hard-court form of both players is the more relevant comparison.
- Andreeva and Sasnovich have played each other once, in 2024
- That match was played on clay in Iasi, Romania
- Andreeva won it in straight sets, 6-1, 6-3
- This Singapore match is their first meeting on hard court
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 08:34 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.co.uk · 23 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mirra Andreeva

1.15fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 87%

−8.0ppshort

Andreeva has started strongly on this surface, and her first-set record is well ahead of Sasnovich's.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.25fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 80%

−11.0ppshort

Andreeva's comfortable recent wins over lower-ranked opponents suggest a two-set match is the more likely shape.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

1.33fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 75.2%

−12.2ppshort

Andreeva has repeatedly finished matches against lower-ranked hard-court opponents without dropping a set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva is the far higher-ranked player, serves and returns better on this surface, and has beaten lower-ranked hard-court opponents comfortably this window.
- Andreeva is 7-3 on hard in this window, winning 118 of 199 games (59.3%)
- Sasnovich is 3-4 on hard and has won 49.4% of her games there
- Andreeva won the only previous meeting 6-1 6-3, on clay in 2024
- Sasnovich's first-round win over Kasatkina was only her fifth WTA main-draw win of 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance84%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has broken early and kept opening sets short against weaker hard-court opponents.
- Andreeva's hard-court first sets average 7.9 total games
- She won opening sets 6-2, 6-0, 6-2 and 6-2 in recent hard-court wins
- No first-set tiebreak in any of her 10 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's wins in this window have mostly come with a comfortable game cushion, and her sample includes several much tougher opponents than Sasnovich.
- Andreeva's hard-court game margin is +37 across 10 matches (118-81)
- Three of Sasnovich's four hard-court defeats came by margins of 5, 6 and 7 games
- Andreeva's last four hard-court wins came by +3, +5, +10 and +8 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMirra Andreeva -4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
When Andreeva is on top against lower-ranked opposition the matches finish quickly, which keeps totals low.
- Andreeva's hard-court matches average 19.9 total games
- She won four of her six listed recent matches in straight sets
- Her wins over Eva Lys and Janice Tjen totalled 14 and 16 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the longer, more competitive ones for both players on this surface.
- Andreeva's hard-court second sets average 9.5 total games
- Sasnovich's second sets average 8.6 total games
- All three tiebreaks in Andreeva's 10 hard matches came in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Andreeva has started strongly on this surface, and her first-set record is well ahead of Sasnovich's.
- Andreeva has won 8 of 10 first sets on hard in this window
- Her first sets average 5.4 games to 2.5
- Sasnovich is 4-3 in first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has the stronger second-set record on this surface and tends to close out matches once ahead.
- Andreeva is 7-3 in second sets on hard this window
- Her second sets average 5.4 games to 4.1
- Sasnovich is 3-4 in second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Andreeva's comfortable recent wins over lower-ranked opponents suggest a two-set match is the more likely shape.
- Six of Andreeva's 10 hard-court matches were straight-set wins
- She has beaten lower-ranked hard-court opponents 6-0 6-2, 6-2 6-2 and 6-2 7-6
- Sasnovich has lost four of seven hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Andreeva has repeatedly finished matches against lower-ranked hard-court opponents without dropping a set.
- Six of Andreeva's seven hard-court wins in this window were in straight sets
- Her straight-set wins include 6-0 6-2 and 6-2 6-2
- Sasnovich has lost four of seven hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMirra Andreeva 2-0Estimated chance63%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players have been settled without a tiebreak.
- Only four of the 17 combined hard-court matches in this window had a tiebreak
- Six of Andreeva's 10 hard matches were straight-set wins
- Sasnovich's hard matches average 2.4 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players win most of their service points through placement rather than raw ace counts.
- Andreeva's 29 aces came in 10 hard-court matches
- Sasnovich's 22 aces came in 7 hard-court matches
- Andreeva's hard-court first-serve points won is 72.1%, Sasnovich's 63.2%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault at a rate that puts a combined total of eight within reach over two or three sets.
- Andreeva averages 4.0 double faults per hard-court match
- Sasnovich averages 4.1 double faults per hard-court match
- Andreeva's hard-court double-fault rate is above her overall 3.8 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance54%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.1 price requires 90.9%, above our 84.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Mirra Andreeva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-3Mirra Andreeva#5vAliaksandra Sasnovich#132Jul 23, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

10W 5L

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-3#24Anastasia Potapova

6-2 7-6(5)#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-0 6-2#100Eva Lys

6-2 6-2#46Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#10Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#46Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#31Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#49Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#44Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#74Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#27Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#25Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-3#10Marta Kostyuk

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

7W 8L

7-5 6-0#84Daria Kasatkina

5-7 6-3 6-1#147Vendula Valdmannova

7-6(5) 6-3#145Dalma Galfi

3-6 6-4 6-4#137Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-4#87Maria Timofeeva

6-3 6-2#61Tereza Valentova

3-6 6-2 6-2#86Anna Blinkova

6-3 7-6(4)#164Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

5-7 6-1 7-5#179Storm Hunter

1-6 6-3 6-2#610Katy Dunne

6-7(3) 6-4 7-6(4)#45Magdalena Frech

5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#179Storm Hunter

7-6(4) 7-5#129Marina Bassols Ribera

6-1 6-0#312Oceane Dodin

6-4 6-3#237Whitney Osuigwe

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovichAS

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Aliaksandra Sasnovich's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In63.5%+1.0pp64.5%

1st Serve Won69.4%+4.0pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won47.8%+3.7pp44.1%

Aces / Match3.3—3.5

Double Faults / Match3.8—3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.3%+1.8pp44.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted47.7%+2.7pp50.4%

Break Pts Saved56.8%+3.1pp59.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.7%+2.5pp51.2%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 9 vs 8

Winners / Match9/15 · 8/1522.8+7.530.3

Unforced Errors / Match9/15 · 8/1526.710.2 fewer36.9

Net Pts Won9/15 · 8/1568.6%—68.4%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

63.5%1st Serve In+1.0pp64.5%

69.4%1st Serve Won+4.0pp65.4%

47.8%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp44.1%

3.3Aces / Match—3.5

3.8Double Faults / Match—3.6

Return · 1–0

46.3%Return Pts Won+1.8pp44.5%

Pressure · 0–2

47.7%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp50.4%

56.8%Break Pts Saved+3.1pp59.9%

Points · 1–0

53.7%Total Pts Won+2.5pp51.2%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 9 vs 8

22.8Winners9/15 · 8/15+7.530.3

26.7Unforced Errors9/15 · 8/1510.2 fewer36.9

68.6%Net Pts Won9/15 · 8/15—68.4%