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Predictions graded

Alevtina Ibragimova #166Russia0Yeon Woo Ku #180South Korea2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Tue 22 Sept 2026, 05:44 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–550%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlevtina Ibragimova · 14 places

Alevtina Ibragimova

Russia

Right-hander ranked No. 166 whose tracked 2026 record is weighted to clay: 11 of 15 recent matches on that surface with an 8-3 return, against 3-1 on hard courts. She has won her two latest matches in straight sets, on 19 and 20 September.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Yeon Woo Ku

South Korea

Korean player ranked No. 180 whose tracked 2026 record is almost entirely on hard courts: 14 of 15 recent matches with a 7-7 return. Her latest tracked match was on 2 September, leaving a near three-week gap before this fixture.

Current ranking: #180
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Alevtina Ibragimova brings the better recent hard-court record into this Seoul first round, but her read comes from four matches while Yeon Woo Ku has been extending almost everything into a third set.

Ibragimova is the likelier winner. Three quoted prices hold up: Ku with a 2.5-game start at 1.73, Ku to win 2-1 at 4.75 and over 21.5 games at 1.8. The 1.65 on Ibragimova does not.

Context

Ibragimova, ranked 166, has won three of those four hard-court matches and arrives with an 11-4 record over her last 15 matches.
A four-match sample is small, but the shape is consistent: Ibragimova either closes in two sets or goes down in two. That points away from the long, three-set matches Ku tends to produce, so the two records pull against each other on total games.
- setEvidence (hard, best-of-3): 4 matches tracked, 24 August-20 September 2026
- Scorelines: three 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss; no match with a tiebreak
- Average 18.5 total games and 2.0 sets per match
Ku, ranked 180, has the far larger hard-court sample of the two players in this window, winning 7 and losing 7.
The volume of three-set matches and a 24.3-game average are the main reason a long match is plausible here. Her 8-6 records in first and second sets also show the opening sets have been closer than her overall match record suggests.
- setEvidence (hard, best-of-3): 14 matches tracked, 19 June-2 September 2026
- Scorelines: five 1-2 losses, three 2-1 wins, four 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses
- Average 24.3 total games and 2.57 sets per match; 4 matches with a tiebreak
Ku's tracked hard-court record ends on 2 September 2026, after eight of her 14 hard matches in the window went to a deciding set.
The defeat came by only three games, which fits her habit of keeping matches close, but losing a decider to a player ranked roughly 180 places below her is the sharpest note in her recent record and is the main argument against her here.
- 2 September 2026: lost 4-6, 6-4, 3-6 to Margaux Rouvroy (ranked 360) on hard
- Game count 13-16 across three sets
- Latest hard-court match in Ku's tracked recent record
Ibragimova is 11-4 over her last 15 matches and 3-1 on hard in this window.
She took a tight opening set and then ran the second one out 6-2, which matches the straight-set shape of her four hard-court matches. The counterpoint is the opposition: Saito sits outside the top 200, well below the level Ku has been playing.
- 20 September 2026: beat Sara Saito (ranked 247) 7-5, 6-2 on hard
- Game count 13-7 across two sets in a completed match

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Ibragimova has the stronger recent hard-court record and slightly better serve and return numbers, though the ranking gap is narrow.
- Ibragimova is 11-4 in her last 15 and 3-1 on hard in this window
- She has won 59.5% of hard-court games (44-30) and 52.1% of total points on the surface
- Ku is 7-7 on hard with 51.8% of games and 51.0% of points won
- Rankings are close: 166 for Ibragimova against 180 for Ku
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Ku's hard-court games record is close to level, so she is unlikely to be beaten heavily.
- Ku has won 51.8% of games and 51.0% of points across 14 hard matches
- Her recent hard defeats came by 3, 5, 6 and 3 games
- Eight of her 14 hard matches went to a third set
- She won a hard match 6-2 6-3 against Anna Sinclair Rogers
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYeon Woo Ku +2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ku's hard-court matches run long and the combined sample points to more than 21.5 games.
- Ku averages 24.3 games and 113.7 minutes per hard match over 14 matches
- Ibragimova averages 18.5 games per hard match over four
- Weighted across both players' hard samples the average is about 23 games
- Eight of Ku's 14 hard matches went to a decider, which lifts game totals
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ku's games record on hard is close to even and her losses are rarely heavy, so a 1.5-game cushion is a reasonable ask.
- Ku has won 51.8% of games across 14 hard matches
- Her most recent hard defeats were by 3, 5, 6 and 3 games
- Eight of her 14 hard matches went to a decider
- Ibragimova's hard-court game rate comes from only four matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYeon Woo Ku +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' first-set game averages sit just below this line overall.
- Ibragimova averages 9.75 games in first sets on hard (4 matches)
- Ku averages 9.36 games in first sets on hard (14 matches)
- Only 1 of Ku's 14 hard matches had a first-set tiebreak
- Ibragimova's opening sets were 7-5 and 6-3 in her two latest hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Ibragimova's opening-set record on hard is stronger than Ku's, matching her narrow overall edge.
- Ibragimova has won three of four opening sets on hard, averaging 5.75 games to 4.0
- Ku is 8-6 in opening sets on hard, averaging 4.93 games to 4.43
- Ibragimova's two most recent hard wins opened 7-5 and 6-3
- Ku has lost four of her last six completed hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Ibragimova has been strong in second sets on hard, conceding few games.
- Ibragimova has won three of four second sets on hard, allowing only 3.5 games on average
- Ku is 8-6 in second sets on hard, allowing 4.57 games on average
- Ibragimova's second sets on hard average just 8.75 total games
- Ku lost a second set 0-6 to Storm Hunter this window
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ibragimova's matches on this surface have been settled in straight sets every time.
- Ibragimova's four hard matches all ended 2-0 or 0-2
- Her hard matches average 2.0 sets and 18.5 games
- Ku's hard average is 2.57 sets over 14 matches
- Ibragimova has not been taken to a decider on hard this window
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Break-heavy serving on both sides makes a tiebreak the less likely outcome.
- Ku has had 10 of 14 hard matches without a tiebreak
- Ibragimova has had none in four hard matches
- Ibragimova converts 44.7% of break points on hard, Ku 52.1%
- Neither player serves a high ace count (2.0 and 1.1 per match on hard)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players combine for roughly three aces per hard-court match on their recent numbers.
- Ibragimova averages 2.0 aces per hard match (8 in 4)
- Ku averages 1.1 aces per hard match (15 in 14)
- Combined hard-court average is about 3.1 aces per match
- Ku plays long matches, averaging 113.7 minutes on hard
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault frequently on hard, putting the combined total right around this line.
- Ibragimova averages 4.3 double faults per hard match (17 in 4)
- Ku averages 4.5 double faults per hard match (63 in 14)
- Combined hard-court average is about 8.8 per match
- Ku's hard matches average 113.7 minutes, giving more service games
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Alevtina Ibragimova: 6/6 recent winner projections matched

6 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Alevtina Ibragimova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alevtina Ibragimova6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#219Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#881Maia Ilinca Burcescu

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·78%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#219Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#881Maia Ilinca Burcescu

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

78%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

23 Jul·WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-0#265Alice Rame

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-0#265Alice Rame

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

62%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

21 Jul·WTA Palermo

#148Tamara Zidansek1-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·55%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#148Tamara Zidansek1-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

55%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Iasi

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·58%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

58%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

12 Jul·WTA Iasi

#632Maria Kozyreva0-2#271Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#632Maria Kozyreva0-2#271Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

65%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Alevtina Ibragimova

11W 4L

7-5 6-2#247Sara Saito 6-3 6-2#278Rina Saigo

7-5 6-4#201Rositsa Dencheva

4-6 6-2 6-3#263Alicia Herrero Linana

6-2 6-3#264Aurora Zantedeschi

7-5 6-1#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 7-6(2)#224Julie Struplova

6-4 6-3#359Mariam Bolkvadze

6-2 6-4#146Rebecca Sramkova

6-3 6-2#127Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 3-6 7-5#835Maia Ilinca Burcescu

6-3 6-4#106Francesca Jones

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#301Clara Burel

6-0 6-4#256Alice Rame

3-6 6-4 6-3#135Tamara Zidansek

Yeon Woo Ku

7W 8L

6-4 4-6 6-3#360Margaux Rouvroy

4-6 7-6(6) 6-0#175Storm Hunter

6-4 6-3#894Astra Sharma

6-1 4-6 6-3#170Mai Hontama

6-2 6-3#321Anna Sinclair Rogers

4-6 6-2 7-6(6)#885Emma Dong

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#246Caroline Dolehide

6-4 6-2#119Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 2-6 6-2#116Mary Stoiana

3-6 6-3 6-4#86Darja Vidmanova

6-2 6-2#408Reina Goto

1-6 7-6(6) 6-4#362Miho Kuramochi

6-1 6-4#186Teodora Kostovic

6-4 6-3#86Darja Vidmanova

3-6 6-4 6-1#171Martyna Kubka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAlevtina IbragimovaIbragimova

Last 15

4–1

9 core stats · 4 even

Yeon Woo KuKuYK

Alevtina Ibragimova carries the stronger recent form — Yeon Woo Ku's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In70.4%+4.9pp65.5%

1st Serve Won55.6%+4.0pp59.6%

2nd Serve Won44.7%+1.5pp43.2%

Aces / Match1.3—1.1

Double Faults / Match3.51.0 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.7%+2.5pp47.2%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted50.6%—50.3%

Break Pts Saved50.7%—50.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.1%—50.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

70.4%1st Serve In+4.9pp65.5%

55.6%1st Serve Won+4.0pp59.6%

44.7%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp43.2%

1.3Aces / Match—1.1

3.5Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

49.7%Return Pts Won+2.5pp47.2%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

50.6%Break Pts Converted—50.3%

50.7%Break Pts Saved—50.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.1%Total Pts Won—50.5%

Alevtina Ibragimova

Yeon Woo Ku

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yeon Woo Ku +2.5

Over 21.5

Yeon Woo Ku 2-1

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alevtina Ibragimova

Yeon Woo Ku

Stat Battle