ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Raul Brancaccio #225Italy2Filippo Romano #309Italy0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Mon 21 Sept 2026, 15:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaul Brancaccio · 84 places

Raul Brancaccio

Italy

Italian right-hander ranked No. 225 and listed at 183 cm with a two-handed backhand; Marco Brancaccio and Ciro Figaro are his listed coaches. Age, career-high ranking and preferred surface were not confirmed during this research.

Current ranking: #225
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Filippo Romano

Italy

Italian right-hander ranked No. 309 and listed at 188 cm with a two-handed backhand. Age, career-high ranking, preferred surface and coaching details were not confirmed during this research.

Current ranking: #309
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 10:49 · Europe/Bucharest

A Genoa Challenger first round on clay: Brancaccio (225) is 6-8 on the surface, Romano (309) is 2-7.

Brancaccio is the likelier winner, though he has lost his last two clay matches in three sets. The market favours Romano at 1.73 and has Brancaccio at 2.1; only the Brancaccio price offers an edge, so Romano at 1.73 is passed over.

Context

Brancaccio's clay profile is that of a player who rarely finishes quickly in either direction.
Nine of 14 clay matches going to a decider, with scorelines of 1-2 five times and 2-1 four times, means a third set is a more likely outcome here than a straight-sets finish. It says nothing about who wins that decider.
- Brancaccio clay sample: 14 completed matches from 2026-07-06 to 2026-09-15
- Total sets average 2.64; scorelines 1-2 (5), 2-1 (4), 0-2 (3), 2-0 (2)
Romano's clay results have been poor, and the opening set is where most of the damage has been done.
A 2-7 first-set record leaves him needing to come from behind to win, and only one of his nine clay matches in this sample ended in a straight-sets victory. Starting slowly would put the whole match on his second and third sets.
- Romano clay sample: 9 completed matches from 2026-06-30 to 2026-09-14
- Set 1 record 2-7; set 1 games average 4.56 won against 5.89 lost; two set 1 tiebreaks
- Clay scorelines in the sample: 0-2 five times, 1-2 twice, 2-0 once, 2-1 once
Romano pushed both sets to the edge against a lower-ranked opponent but could not close either one.
Two tiebreak sets in a single match is a narrow way to lose, and the games count of 12-14 shows there was little between the two players across the whole match. It was still a defeat to a player ranked 57 places below him.
- 2026-09-14 clay loss to Petr Brunclik (rank 366): 6-7, 6-7
- Games 12-14 across the two sets; no retirement
Romano loses more than he wins, but he has been efficient when break points arrive.
Conversion at that rate gives him a way to stay in sets even when his serving and return totals are ordinary; it is the main counterweight to a 4-11 record over the same 15 matches. The sample covers all surfaces, so it is a general figure rather than a clay-only one.
- Last 15 tracked matches: record 4-11
- Break points converted 44.3% (39/88) across those 15 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Brancaccio is the higher-ranked player with a clearly better clay record and set share over the same period, while Romano has lost seven of nine on the surface.
- Clay record in the sample: Brancaccio 6-8 from 14 matches, Romano 2-7 from 9
- Clay sets won: Brancaccio 45.9%, Romano 28.6%
- Clay games won: Brancaccio 48.5%, Romano 46.3%
- Ranking 225 against 309; Brancaccio has recent clay wins over Llamas Ruiz (143) and Forejtek (426)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance67%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both players' clay matches average more than ten games, with tiebreaks reasonably common.
- Brancaccio set 1 total games average 10.86
- Romano set 1 total games average 10.44
- Four set 1 tiebreaks for Brancaccio in 14 clay matches
- Two set 1 tiebreaks for Romano in 9 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average close to 24-25 games per clay match, and a likely third set pushes the total past the line.
- Brancaccio clay total games average 25.5
- Romano clay total games average 23.8
- Combined sets average for the two players is 2.6 and 2.3
- Brancaccio clay average duration 118 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two second-set averages combined sit right around the line, so the over is only marginally favoured.
- Romano clay set 2 total games average 10.22
- Brancaccio clay set 2 total games average 9.07
- Two set 2 tiebreaks for each player in the clay samples
- Brancaccio average duration 118 minutes on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio wins the opening set in most clay matches while Romano has lost seven of nine first sets.
- Brancaccio clay set 1 record 8-6
- Romano clay set 1 record 2-7
- Brancaccio set 1 games average 5.79, Romano 4.56
- Four set 1 tiebreaks for Brancaccio in 14 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The overall clay gap favours Brancaccio in the second set even though his own second-set record is weak.
- Romano clay set 2 record 3-6
- Romano set 2 games average 5.0 against 5.22 lost
- Brancaccio clay sets won 45.9% against Romano's 28.6%
- Brancaccio clay set 2 record 5-9
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio rarely wins or loses quickly on clay, and his long matches point to a three-set contest.
- 9 of Brancaccio's 14 clay matches went to a deciding third set
- Brancaccio clay total sets average 2.64
- Romano clay total sets average 2.33
- Brancaccio's scorelines: 1-2 five times, 2-1 four times
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks are frequent in both players' clay matches, which reduces the chance of a set reaching a tiebreak.
- Brancaccio: 9 of 14 clay matches had no tiebreak
- Romano: 6 of 9 clay matches had no tiebreak
- Brancaccio returns 39.4% of clay return points
- Romano clay return points won 37.8%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a heavy ace server on clay, and their combined average lands just under the threshold.
- Brancaccio clay aces 3.4 per match
- Romano clay aces 3.9 per match
- Combined average 7.3, below the 7.5 line
- Both clay first-serve-in rates under 63%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double fault at a similar rate, and their combined per-match average sits just above the line.
- Brancaccio clay double faults 3.5 per match (45 in 13 matches)
- Romano clay double faults 3.4 per match (31 in 9 matches)
- Combined average 6.9 per match
- Brancaccio clay first-serve-in 62.5%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Raul Brancaccio: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Raul Brancaccio matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Raul Brancaccio5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

11 Jul·ATP Umag

#248Raul Brancaccio1-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·58%

Missed

11 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#248Raul Brancaccio1-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

Raul Brancaccio to win

58%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

Missed

6 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-1#268Franco Agamenone

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·52%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-1#268Franco Agamenone

Raul Brancaccio to win

52%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

10 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#209Liam Broady0-2#237Raul Brancaccio

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·58%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#209Liam Broady0-2#237Raul Brancaccio

Raul Brancaccio to win

58%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

8 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#660Pierluigi Basile0-2#239Raul Brancaccio

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#660Pierluigi Basile0-2#239Raul Brancaccio

Raul Brancaccio to win

62%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

16 May·ATP Geneva

#240Raul Brancaccio2-1#298Tyler Zink

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·58%

Matched

16 May 2026

ATP Geneva

#240Raul Brancaccio2-1#298Tyler Zink

Raul Brancaccio to win

58%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

Raul Brancaccio

6W 9L

4-6 6-2 6-1#265Hynek Barton

2-6 6-1 6-1#68Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

5-7 6-3 6-3#143Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-2 2-6 6-1#426Jonas Forejtek

7-6(1) 6-2#349Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-1#141Thiago Seyboth Wild

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#259Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-3#277Filip Cristian Jianu

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#174Elmer Moller

6-4 6-4#173Zdenek Kolar

6-4 2-6 6-1#288Harold Mayot

5-7 6-2 6-4#186Federico Agustin Gomez

7-6(5) 6-1#171Matej Dodig

3-6 6-4 6-3#146Andrea Pellegrino

7-6(3) 3-6 6-3#294Franco Agamenone

Filippo Romano

4W 11L

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#366Petr Brunclik

6-2 7-5#349Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 2-6 7-6(3)#275Juan Bautista Torres

6-2 6-2#386Massimo Giunta

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#845Dominik Recek

7-5 6-4#108Otto Virtanen

7-5 6-4#392Daniel Elahi Galan

2-6 6-4 6-2#317Gilles Arnaud Bailly

0-6 6-3 7-6(5)#219Max Basing

5-7 6-2 6-1#163Marco Cecchinato

7-5 6-1#330Murphy Cassone

6-2 6-2#167Andrea Guerrieri

7-6(2) 0-6 6-1#302Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#97Jacob Fearnley

7-5 5-7 6-3#189Jack Pinnington Jones

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RBRaul BrancaccioBrancaccio

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Filippo RomanoRomanoFR

Filippo Romano carries the stronger recent form — Raul Brancaccio's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.1%+1.5pp60.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1564.3%+1.4pp65.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1546.4%—46.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.2+1.14.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.30.4 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.0%+2.3pp36.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1534.7%+9.6pp44.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1554.9%+2.9pp57.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.1%—47.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.5pp60.6%

64.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp65.7%

46.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—46.3%

3.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.14.3

3.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.4 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

39.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp36.7%

Pressure · 0–2

34.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+9.6pp44.3%

54.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+2.9pp57.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—47.8%