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Predictions graded

Felix Auger Aliassime #4Canada2Arthur Rinderknech #29France1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-4Sat 19 Sept 2026, 20:24 Predictions gradedRound 16Hard

Predictions6–275%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Auger Aliassime · 25 places

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

Auger-Aliassime reached his career-high No. 4 on 8 June 2026 and remains No. 4. ATP and ITF sources identify hard court as his favourite or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #4 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Arthur Rinderknech

France

Hard is his stated favourite surface. He reached career-high No. 24 on 2026-05-04 after contesting his first Masters 1000 final in Shanghai in 2025.

Current ranking: #29
Peak ranking: #24 · 2026
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Felix Auger-Aliassime is the clear favourite over Arthur Rinderknech on home hard courts, with a 2-1 H2H lead and stronger recent form, though a possible dead-rubber tie trims certainty.

Both are big, hold-heavy servers, so the match should feature few breaks and likely a tiebreak, making Over 20.5 games, Over 9.5 first-set games, and tiebreak Yes credible. Best value sits with Rinderknech +3.5, while laying Auger-Aliassime -3.5 or backing Under 2.5 sets looks overpriced.

Context

Auger Aliassime is Canada's No. 1 in this tie and the highest-ranked player on court at No. 5, with a 63.4% career win rate across 667 matches. Rinderknech, ranked No. 32, has won 58.1% of his 609 career matches and 48% of his career tiebreaks.
In the tracked 15-match window Auger Aliassime is 10-5 with 61.7% of sets and 53.6% of games won; Rinderknech is 7-15 with 51.1% of sets. Losing 6-2 7-5 to Liam Draxl (No. 205) on September 18 at this tie is the sharpest recent evidence against Rinderknech, because it came against the lowest-ranked opponent in either player's window. Best-of-three leaves less room to recover from a slow start.
- Last 15 matches: Auger Aliassime 10-5 (66.7% win rate), taking 29 of 47 sets and 261 of 487 games.
- Rinderknech is 7-15 (46.7%), with 23 of 45 sets and 251 of 485 games won.
- Rinderknech's last two results: a 6-4 6-4 6-4 loss to No. 6 Daniil Medvedev on September 4 and a 6-2 7-5 loss to No. 205 Liam Draxl on September 18 at this tie.
Canada won both opening-day singles rubbers to lead France 2-0 going into the final day of this tie. The order of play puts doubles first, and this No. 1 singles rubber between Auger-Aliassime and Rinderknech is scheduled last.
In Davis Cup, the third point decides the tie. A Canadian win in the doubles would settle it before this singles rubber, and the final singles match can then be left unplayed. That does not change how either player prepares while the doubles is still in progress, but it means the match may never start, and the outcome carries less certainty than a normal tour match.
- Canada took both opening-day singles points.
- The tie format places doubles before the No. 1 singles match and permits the final singles match to be omitted once the tie is decided.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestContrasting wins put Canada in the driving seat on Road to Bolognadavis-cup-web-prod.stadion.io · 18 Sep 2026Auger-Aliassime to Pull Double Duty for Canada at Davis Cup: Draw Analysiswww.tenniscanada.com · 17 Sep 2026
Rinderknech, 196cm, averages 16.6 aces per match across the window (14 matches tracked) and 22.5 in his four grass matches; Auger Aliassime averages 15.2. Both players' careers are built on hard courts, with Auger Aliassime holding 142 hard-court wins and Rinderknech 120.
On hard courts in the same window, Rinderknech holds 80.3% first-serve points won, 48% second-serve points won and 4.4 double faults per match across 7 tracked matches. Auger Aliassime reads 75.8%, 44.8% and 6.6 across 5, with his hard-court break-point save rate at 57.9% against 66.7% for the full window. The samples are small, so this is a serve-hold counterweight to the results pattern rather than a settled edge.
- Hard-court last-15 serve data: Rinderknech 80.3% first-serve points won, 48% second-serve points won, 4.4 double faults per match (7 matches tracked).
- Auger Aliassime on hard: 75.8% first-serve points won, 44.8% second-serve points won, 6.6 double faults per match (5 matches tracked).
- Auger Aliassime's hard-court break-point save rate in the window is 57.9% (22 of 38) against 66.7% overall (50 of 75).
Auger-Aliassime is the ATP No. 5 and the right-hander in this matchup. The 17 September draw named him for singles and for doubles alongside Duncan Chan, with the doubles scheduled before the No. 1 singles against Rinderknech.
A live doubles match would put same-day court time on Auger-Aliassime before this best-of-three singles, which matters for recovery and for how long he can sustain long rallies. The doubles lineup and its length are not settled, and the singles rubber itself may not be needed, so this is a workload to track rather than a known physical problem.
- The draw lists Auger-Aliassime in both singles and doubles.
- Saturday's order begins with doubles before the No. 1 singles match.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
To watchSources checked 19 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestAuger-Aliassime to Pull Double Duty for Canada at Davis Cup: Draw Analysiswww.tenniscanada.com · 17 Sep 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ranking gap plus stronger recent hard-court form and a 2-1 H2H lead favor Auger-Aliassime on home hard courts, with the confirmed possibility that the rubber is non-live trimming certainty rather than direction.
- Rankings (Sep 2026): Auger-Aliassime ATP No. 5 vs Rinderknech No. 32.
- Last-15 window: Auger-Aliassime 10-5 (66.7%) overall and 4-2 on hard; Rinderknech 7-8 (46.7%) overall and 4-4 on hard.
- H2H 2-1 Auger-Aliassime over 2025 meetings (7-5 6-3 and 7-6(4) 4-2 ret.), Rinderknech's win 6-3 6-4 on 10 Oct 2025.
- Rinderknech lost his most recent match 2-6 5-7 to world No. 205 Liam Draxl on 18 Sep 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serve profiles on both sides make a short opening set unlikely, supporting the over on first-set games.
- Auger-Aliassime's last-15 overall firstServePointsWon 80.6% (14 tracked matches).
- Rinderknech's last-15 secondServePointsWon 52.1% overall, making breaks scarce.
- In Auger-Aliassime's last 3 hard matches the opening set reached at least 10 games twice (7-6 vs Halys, 7-5 vs Hijikata).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Two serve-dominant hard-court players plus a tight H2H history make a decisive four-game margin unlikely, favoring the underdog on the handicap.
- H2H is 2-1 Auger-Aliassime but all three meetings were competitive (7-5 6-3, 7-6(4) 4-2 ret., 6-3 6-4).
- Rinderknech last-15 hard games won 52.3% (8 matches), showing he stays in sets.
- Rinderknech H2H breakPointConvertRate 100% across the three meetings.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonArthur Rinderknech +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two big-serving, hold-dominant profiles with low break rates point to extended games totals, keeping this a medium-confidence over.
- Both players hold heavily: Auger-Aliassime 66.7% and Rinderknech 69.1% break-points saved in the last-15 window.
- First-serve points won are near-identical (Auger-Aliassime 80.6%, Rinderknech 80.5%) with return points won around 34% each.
- Rinderknech's hard-court matches in the window averaged 157.7 minutes (7 tracked matches).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance57%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serve-plus opening-set record for Auger-Aliassime against a Rinderknech who has started slowly lately drives the surface/serve structural edge in set one.
- Auger-Aliassime won the opening set in 4 of his last 5 completed matches (18 Aug-18 Sep 2026).
- Rinderknech lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches (Draxl, Medvedev, Shimabukuro; 18 Aug-18 Sep 2026).
- Auger-Aliassime firstServePointsWon 75.8% in the last-15 hard-court window (5 tracked matches).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Auger-Aliassime's hold-heavy profile and higher break-point conversion give a modest structural edge in set two, though Rinderknech's hold resistance keeps this at medium confidence.
- Auger-Aliassime last-15 hard window: 51.2% games won, 75.8% first-serve points won (6 matches).
- Rinderknech last-15 hard window: 52.3% games won but only 37.0% return points won (8 matches).
- Auger-Aliassime 43.0% break-point conversion vs Rinderknech 65.9% break-point save rate on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elite hold rates on both sides make at least one tiebreak the likely structural outcome of this hard-court Bo3.
- Hold-dominant profiles: break points saved 66.7% (Auger-Aliassime) and 69.1% (Rinderknech) in the last-15 window.
- Rinderknech's recent matches featured tiebreaks in 3 of his last 5 (Munar, Shimabukuro, Cerundolo).
- Auger-Aliassime played tiebreak sets in 2 of his last 4 hard matches (Halys, Khachanov).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two of the tour's heavier ace servers on a hard court should clear a modest combined ace line, tempered by the threat of a short, low-volume Bo3.
- Last-15 overall aces per match: Auger-Aliassime 15.2 (14 matches) and Rinderknech 16.6 (14 matches).
- Hard-court window: Auger-Aliassime 11.0 aces/match, Rinderknech 14.0 aces/match.
- Rinderknech recorded 22.5 aces/match across 4 grass matches in the window; Auger-Aliassime 17.6 (9 matches).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 17.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aggressive second-serve/ace-seeking profiles with sub-66% first-serve rates make a combined double-fault count above the line slightly more likely than not.
- Double faults per match last-15: Auger-Aliassime 4.4 (14 matches), Rinderknech 4.2 (14 matches).
- Hard-court window: Auger-Aliassime 6.6 double faults/match (5 matches), Rinderknech 4.4 (7 matches).
- Both players first-serve percentage sits at 62-65% in the last-15 window.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Even-money on the favorite covering 3.5 games reads as easy value, but the H2H history and both players' hold-heavy serve numbers point to tight, break-light sets rather than a four-game margin.

Prediction history

Felix Auger Aliassime has fulfilled matchWinner projections slightly above expectation in this recent sample

Felix Auger Aliassime’s perspective shows 11 fulfilledPredictions from a sampleSize of 15. The fulfilled count is marginally above the 10.4 expected from the average estimated probability, while matched (69.3) and missed (70) probabilities are nearly identical. All four missed outcomes were subject losses, with no unresolved results, so the misses were settled losses rather than unresolved cases. The current 72 probability is within the historical range of 58 to 82.

Recent evidence for Felix Auger Aliassime15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-2#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-2#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

62%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#144Michael Zheng

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·82%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#144Michael Zheng

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

82%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#89Dino Prizmic

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·78%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#89Dino Prizmic

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

78%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#98Alexander Shevchenko

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·82%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#98Alexander Shevchenko

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

82%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

19 Jun·ATP Halle

#26Frances Tiafoe2-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·62%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#26Frances Tiafoe2-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

62%probability

Frances Tiafoe won

Missed

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

L6-3 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime#5vArthur Rinderknech#32Oct 10, 2025

W7-6(4) 4-2 ret.Felix Auger Aliassime#5vArthur Rinderknech#32Aug 11, 2025

W7-5 6-3Felix Auger Aliassime#5vArthur Rinderknech#32Jun 24, 2025

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Felix Auger Aliassime

10W 5L

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#49Quentin Halys

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2#26Karen Khachanov

7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5#85Rinky Hijikata

6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

7-5 6-1#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-3 7-5#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(10) 3-6 6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#12Novak Djokovic

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1#30Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-6(1) 6-2 6-1#88Michael Zheng

7-6(2) 6-3 7-5#103Dino Prizmic

6-3 6-1 6-4#93Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#8Frances Tiafoe

6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)#13Learner Tien

6-3 3-6 6-3#48Nuno Borges

6-4 6-3#73Kamil Majchrzak

Arthur Rinderknech

7W 8L

6-2 7-5#205Liam Draxl

6-4 6-4 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev

7-6(4) 6-2 7-5#68Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(4) 6-2#96Sho Shimabukuro

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(4) 5-7 7-5#16Brandon Nakashima

6-2 2-0 ret.#8Frances Tiafoe

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#61Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(6) 2-6 6-4#51Sebastian Baez

6-3 3-6 6-3#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-7(9) 7-6(5) 7-5#159Clement Tabur

7-5 6-4 1-6 7-6(4)#12Novak Djokovic

6-4 7-6(1) 6-3#104Martin Damm

7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#302Oliver Tarvet

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#77Hamad Medjedovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFelix Auger AliassimeAliassime

Last 15

2–3

9 core stats · 4 even

Arthur RinderknechRinderknechAR

Arthur Rinderknech carries the stronger recent form — Felix Auger Aliassime's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1565.4%+3.4pp62.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1580.6%—80.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1547.7%+4.4pp52.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/1515.2+1.416.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/154.4—4.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1534.3%—34.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1543.0%+4.2pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1566.7%+2.4pp69.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1551.7%—51.7%

Shot making · 0–3Limited data · 7 vs 6

Winners / Match7/15 · 6/1548.0+3.751.7

Unforced Errors / Match7/15 · 6/1539.97.4 fewer32.5

Net Pts Won7/15 · 6/1572.0%+1.1pp73.1%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

65.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+3.4pp62.0%

80.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15—80.5%

47.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+4.4pp52.1%

15.2Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.416.6

4.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/15—4.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

34.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—34.1%

Pressure · 1–1

43.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+4.2pp38.8%

66.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+2.4pp69.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—51.7%

Shot making · 0–3Limited data · 7 vs 6

48.0Winners7/15 · 6/15+3.751.7

39.9Unforced Errors7/15 · 6/157.4 fewer32.5

72.0%Net Pts Won7/15 · 6/15+1.1pp73.1%

Felix Auger Aliassime #4Canada2Arthur Rinderknech #29France1

Player Profiles

Felix Auger Aliassime

Arthur Rinderknech

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Felix Auger Aliassime -3.5 @ 2.00

Under 2.5 @1.50

Felix Auger Aliassime has fulfilled matchWinner projections slightly above expectation in this recent sample

Head-to-Head

Felix Auger Aliassime

Arthur Rinderknech

Stat Battle