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Predictions graded

Cristina Bucsa #40Spain2Sara Bejlek #38Czechia0

Sets 6-0 · 6-4Thu 17 Sept 2026, 19:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Bejlek · 2 places

Cristina Bucsa

Spain

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 30 on March 16, 2026. Her 2026 season included a wrist-related absence from the grass swing before her August return in Toronto.

Current ranking: #40
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born January 31, 2006. She reached a career-high No. 34 in April 2026 and won her first WTA singles title from qualifying in Abu Dhabi earlier that season.

Current ranking: #38
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 21:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Bejlek is higher-ranked with better recent hard-court form, but Bucsa owns the H2H and has not dropped a set in Guadalajara, so the 1.50 favorite price is too short.

Best betting angles: Bucsa +3.5 games, Under 4.5 aces, and Over 4.5 double faults.

Context

Bejlek, 28, is the left-hander in this quarter-final and is having her best hard-court season, 20-8 in 2026. Bucsa, 44, has played 25 hard-court matches this year for a 13-12 record.
All 15 of Bejlek's tracked matches in the window were on hard and she won 10, beating Sabalenka (No. 2) and Keys (No. 23); Bucsa's 11 hard matches produced six wins, with losses to Chwalinska (26), Vidmanova (86), Uchijima (104) and Kudermetova (103). The serve numbers are close, so the difference sits in results and opponent quality rather than in serving.
- Last-15 hard-court record: Bejlek 10-5 from 15 tracked matches; Bucsa 6-5 from 11.
- Bejlek beat Sabalenka (No. 2) 7-6 6-4 on 19 August and Keys (No. 23) 3-6 6-4 7-6(5) on 21 August.
- Bucsa's hard-court defeats in the window came against Chwalinska (26), Vidmanova (86), Uchijima (104) and Kudermetova (103).
- Hard-court serve numbers run close - first-serve points won 61.6% for Bejlek and 60.9% for Bucsa - but Bejlek returns better: 45.0% to 41.9% of return points won.
Bucsa and Bejlek had not met before 31 August 2026, when they played on hard in the same North American swing; Bucsa was then ranked 44, Bejlek 28.
Bejlek hit more winners (23-19) and converted 57% of her break points, but she made 48 unforced errors to Bucsa's 25 and landed only 53% of first serves, while Bucsa served at 67% and won 63% of first-serve points. The sample is one match, but it gives Bucsa a recent, same-surface template: extend rallies and let the error count decide.
- Only previous meeting: Bucsa beat Bejlek 7-5 4-6 6-1 on hard on 31 August 2026, so Bucsa leads the head-to-head 1-0.
- In that match Bejlek made 48 unforced errors and 5 double faults to Bucsa's 25 and 3, and served 53% first serves against Bucsa's 67%.
- Bejlek still led on winners (23-19) and on break points converted (57% to 41%), so her issue was error volume rather than shot production.
- Bejlek has since served at 63.4% first serves across her last 15 hard-court matches, above the 53% she managed in that defeat.
Cristina Bucsa, WTA No. 44 and right-handed, is the home player in this Guadalajara singles quarterfinal and had already played doubles at the event before it.
She and Nicole Melichar-Martinez won their doubles quarterfinal 6-2, 6-2 on 17 September and are into the semifinals, so Bucsa takes the singles court having already played twice that day. The extra court time is a workload factor against her over three sets, though one completed doubles match is not evidence of fatigue.
- Bucsa completed her second doubles match of the tournament before the singles quarterfinal.
- The doubles draw lists Bucsa and Melichar-Martinez in the semifinals.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 21:19 · Europe/BucharestGuadalajara Open 2026 doubles drawwww.wtatennis.com · 17 Sep 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek's clearly stronger recent hard-court form and serve/return profile (52.9% games won, 61.6% first-serve points, 45% return points in last 15) outweigh Bucsa's single 3-set H2H win, with Bucsa carrying same-day doubles workload.
- Last-15 overall: Bejlek 10-5 (66.7%) vs Bucsa 6-9 (40%), all 15 of Bejlek's matches on Hard (Aug-Sep 2026)
- Last-15 hard-court games won: Bejlek 52.9% vs Bucsa 48.8%; total points won 50.7% vs 49.1%
- Ranking edge Bejlek #28 vs Bucsa #44; Bejlek beat Sabalenka (#2), Keys (#23), Alexandrova (#21) in Aug 2026
- H2H: Bucsa won 7-5 4-6 6-1 on Hard (Aug 31, 2026) — only prior meeting, narrow 3-set win
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSara BejlekEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With nearly even game-level metrics and a tight H2H, the 3.5-game cushion covers a Bucsa win plus most close/3-set losses against a moderate favorite.
- H2H game margin only +5 for Bucsa over 3 sets (17-12), with Bucsa winning the decider 6-1
- Last-15 hard games won: Bucsa 48.8% vs Bejlek 52.9% — narrow gap
- Bucsa reached this quarterfinal with 6-4 6-4 and 6-4 6-3 wins at Guadalajara (Sep 13-15, 2026)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCristina Bucsa +3.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches run long and their lone H2H went three sets, pushing total games toward the upper side of a 21.5 line.
- Bucsa averaged 24.7 total games/match over her last 15 (370 games in 15)
- Bejlek averaged 21.5 total games/match over her last 15 (323 games in 15)
- Only H2H needed 29 games (7-5 4-6 6-1, Aug 31 2026)
- Bucsa average match duration 114.5 min, Bejlek 107.9 min (last 15)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek's stronger set-conversion and return numbers in the last-15 window make her the more likely opening-set winner in this hard-court quarterfinal.
- Last-15 sets won: Bejlek 60% (21/35) vs Bucsa 43.2% (16/37)
- Career first-set win conversion: Bejlek 93% vs Bucsa 87%
- Last-15 first-serve points won: Bejlek 61.6% vs Bucsa 60.8%; return points 45% vs 42.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSara BejlekEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek's higher set-win rate and better break-point conversion across the recent window give her a modest edge in the second set.
- Last-15 sets won: Bejlek 60% vs Bucsa 43.2% (35 and 37 sets tracked respectively)
- Last-15 break points converted: Bejlek 45.9% vs Bucsa 41.7%; break points saved 52.9% vs 48.8%
- Bejlek career deciding-set win rate 67%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSara BejlekEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
One-sided straight-set outcomes recur in both players' recent samples (Bejlek's wins, Bucsa's losses), giving a slight lean to a two-set finish despite the 3-set H2H.
- Bejlek averaged 2.33 sets/match over last 15 (35 sets/15), Bucsa 2.47 (37 sets/15)
- Bejlek won 5 of last 15 in straight sets; Bucsa lost 8 of last 15 in straight sets
- H2H did go 3 sets (Bucsa 7-5 4-6 6-1)
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bucsa's high double-fault rate combined with Bejlek's moderate rate reliably clears a 4.5 combined line in the recent window.
- Last-15 double faults per match: Bucsa 3.5 (53/15), Bejlek 2.3 (34/15) — combined ~5.8
- H2H (Aug 31 2026): Bucsa 3 DF, Bejlek 5 DF = 8 combined
- Bucsa's clay and overall DF rates both elevated (3.4/match on Hard, 4.0/match on Clay in last 15)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low-ace servers over a well-covered 15-match window, keeping combined aces under a 4.5 line.
- Last-15 aces per match: Bucsa 1.4 (21/15), Bejlek 1.3 (19/15) — combined ~2.7
- Career aces: Bucsa 622 in 659 matches, Bejlek 127 in 273 matches
- Neither player recorded more than ~1.5 aces/match on Hard in the tracked window
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close game-level margins and frequent recent tiebreaks for both players make at least one tiebreak in a best-of-3 likely.
- Bucsa played a 3-tiebreak match vs Sakatsume (Sep 3, 2026: 7-6(6) 6-7(0) 7-6(6))
- Bejlek won two of her recent matches via first-set tiebreaks (vs Sabalenka 7-6(7), vs Krejcikova 7-6(5), Aug 2026)
- Both players' last-15 game margins are near even (Bucsa 47.6%, Bejlek 52.9% games won)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance56%

Prediction history

Sara Bejlek's projected wins have converted below expectation, with only half of her sample fulfilled

Sara Bejlek has fulfilled 4 of 8 supplied matchWinner projections, short of the 5.1 expected from an average estimated probability of 63.8. Her four missed projections carried a lower average probability of 60.8 than her four matched ones at 66.8, and every miss was a subject loss rather than an unresolved result. The current 57 sits below her historical range of 58 to 82, the lowest position recorded across this sample.

Recent evidence for Sara Bejlek8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-0#40Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·65%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-0#40Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

65%probability

Lilli Tagger won

Missed

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#102Anna Blinkova1-2#42Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#102Anna Blinkova1-2#42Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

58%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

15 Jul·WTA Athens

#84Lilli Tagger0-2#42Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#84Lilli Tagger0-2#42Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

62%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

13 Jul·WTA Athens

#303Viktoria Morvayova0-2#45Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·82%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#303Viktoria Morvayova0-2#45Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

82%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#45Dayana Yastremska2-0#35Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·58%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#45Dayana Yastremska2-0#35Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

58%probability

Dayana Yastremska won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-5 4-6 6-1Cristina Bucsa#44vSara Bejlek#28Aug 31, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Cristina Bucsa

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#83Panna Udvardy 6-4 6-3#164Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-3 6-4#4Cori Gauff

7-6(6) 6-7(0) 7-6(6)#115Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 4-6 6-1#28Sara Bejlek

6-4 7-5#86Darja Vidmanova

6-4 6-3#69Anna Bondar

6-2 6-2#26Maja Chwalinska

6-2 1-6 7-5#83Panna Udvardy

6-3 6-4#104Moyuka Uchijima

5-7 7-6(4) 6-0#103Polina Kudermetova

6-4 2-6 6-4#143Susan Bandecchi

2-6 7-6(7) 7-5#54Shuai Zhang

7-6(6) 6-2#52Qinwen Zheng

6-1 6-7(4) 6-2#58Zeynep Sonmez

Sara Bejlek

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#72Alycia Parks

7-5 4-6 6-1#44Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-1#4Cori Gauff

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#23Madison Keys

7-6(7) 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

4-6 6-1 6-2#21Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-6(5) 6-4#38Barbora Krejcikova

6-0 6-2#45Karolina Pliskova

6-0 6-3#9Iga Swiatek

6-3 4-6 7-5#82Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-4#46Lilli Tagger

6-1 6-1#87Maria Timofeeva

7-6(9) 3-6 6-1#94Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#36Clara Tauson

6-2 6-2#46Lilli Tagger

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CBCristina BucsaBucsa

Last 15

0–8

9 core stats · 1 even

Sara BejlekBejlekSB

Sara Bejlek carries the stronger recent form — Cristina Bucsa's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.0%+1.4pp63.4%

1st Serve Won60.8%+0.8pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won47.2%+1.0pp48.2%

Aces / Match1.4—1.3

Double Faults / Match3.51.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.6%+2.4pp45.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.7%+4.2pp45.9%

Break Pts Saved48.8%+4.1pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.9%+1.8pp50.7%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

62.0%1st Serve In+1.4pp63.4%

60.8%1st Serve Won+0.8pp61.6%

47.2%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp48.2%

1.4Aces / Match—1.3

3.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

42.6%Return Pts Won+2.4pp45.0%

Pressure · 0–2

41.7%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp45.9%

48.8%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won+1.8pp50.7%