MexicoWTA GuadalajaraFinished

Predictions graded

Alycia Parks #71United States0Sara Bejlek #38Czechia2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Bejlek · 33 places

Alycia Parks

United States

Reached a career-high No. 40 on August 14, 2023 and won her first WTA singles title at Lyon that year. WTA records list hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #71
Peak ranking: #40 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born January 31, 2006. She reached a career-high No. 34 in April 2026 and won her first WTA singles title from qualifying in Abu Dhabi earlier that season.

Current ranking: #38
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 03:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Sara Bejlek's superior form, return game, and 2-0 H2H record make her the likely winner, but the odds are too short.

The best value is Alycia Parks +3.5 games at 2.60, as her powerful serve should keep the match competitive. Expect a high-scoring match with many double faults from Parks.

Context

Bejlek, 20, is a left-hander ranked No. 30 and has built her 2026 season on hard courts with a 19-8 record.
Her last-15 hard-court sample shows a 66.7% win rate and 53.4% of games won, compared with Parks' 50% win rate and 45.9% of games won. Bejlek's recent wins over top-30 opponents suggest she can handle this level, but Parks' serve remains a wildcard.
- Bejlek's last 15 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 5 losses (66.7%).
- Parks' last 12 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 6 losses (50%).
- Bejlek beat Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1) and Madison Keys (No. 24) in August 2026.
- Parks lost to Ann Li (No. 28) and Taylah Preston (No. 100) in her last two hard-court events.
Parks, 23, is a right-hander ranked No. 79 and relies on a powerful first serve.
Her first-serve points won is strong at 69.9%, but a 49.3% first-serve in rate and 8.9 double faults per match give opponents frequent looks at second serves. Bejlek's return points won of 45.9% could exploit that inconsistency.
- Parks' hard-court last 15: 6.5 aces per match, 8.9 double faults per match.
- Parks' first-serve in rate on hard courts: 49.3%.
- Parks' first-serve points won on hard courts: 69.9%.
- Bejlek's return points won overall: 45.9%.
Bejlek and Parks have met twice, both on hard courts.
Bejlek won 7-6(9), 6-3 in 2025 and 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 in 2023. The small sample limits confidence, but Bejlek's ability to handle Parks' serve in the 2025 match is a relevant data point.
- 2025-07-23: Bejlek def. Parks 7-6(9), 6-3.
- 2023-01-11: Bejlek def. Parks 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
- Both matches were on hard courts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Sara Bejlek

1.22fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Bejlek's superior recent form, return game, and perfect H2H record on hard courts give her a clear edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Sara Bejlek

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Bejlek's superior recent form and H2H dominance make her the likely set 1 winner, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Bejlek's superior recent form, return game, and perfect H2H record on hard courts give her a clear edge.
- Bejlek last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Parks 7-8 (46.7%)
- Bejlek last15 return points won 45.9% vs Parks 41.0%
- H2H: Bejlek leads 2-0, both on hard courts
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSara BejlekEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Parks' strong serve and competitive recent matches suggest she can keep the game margin within 3.5.
- Parks last15 games won 46% vs Bejlek 53.4%
- Parks last15 break points saved 49.2% vs Bejlek 53.6%
- Parks last15 first serve points won 68% vs Bejlek 60.9%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlycia Parks +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive matches with high game counts, suggesting a longer contest.
- Parks last15 average duration 99.1 min, Bejlek 108.7 min
- Parks last15 games per match avg 22.5, Bejlek 21.5
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been close, and H2H first sets were tight, supporting a longer opener.
- Parks last15 first set average games 9.8
- Bejlek last15 first set average games 9.3
- H2H first sets: 7-6(9) and 5-7
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Bejlek's strong first-set conversion rate and overall match edge make her likely to take the opener.
- Bejlek first set win conversion career 93% vs Parks 85%
- Bejlek last15 first serve points won 60.9% vs Parks 68.0%
- Bejlek last15 break points converted 47.8% vs Parks 55.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSara BejlekEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Parks' extremely high double fault rate alone likely pushes the total over 10.5.
- Parks last15 double faults per match 8.1
- Bejlek last15 double faults per match 2.4
- Parks career double faults 3297 in 492 matches (6.7 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Parks' high ace rate should push the combined total over 7.5, even with Bejlek's low ace count.
- Parks last15 aces per match 6.1, Bejlek 1.3
- Parks career aces 2505 in 492 matches (5.1 per match)
- Parks hard court last15 aces per match 6.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Sara Bejlek has converted 4 of 8 projected wins

Sara Bejlek has fulfilled 4 of 8 projected wins. Her average estimated probability was 63.8%, but she won only 50% of those matches. All four misses were losses, with no draws or unresolved outcomes.

Recent evidence for Sara Bejlek8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-0#40Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·65%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-0#40Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

65%probability

Lilli Tagger won

Missed

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#102Anna Blinkova1-2#42Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#102Anna Blinkova1-2#42Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

58%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

15 Jul·WTA Athens

#84Lilli Tagger0-2#42Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#84Lilli Tagger0-2#42Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

62%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

13 Jul·WTA Athens

#303Viktoria Morvayova0-2#45Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·82%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#303Viktoria Morvayova0-2#45Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

82%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#45Dayana Yastremska2-0#35Sara Bejlek

BetBugsSara Bejlek to win·58%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#45Dayana Yastremska2-0#35Sara Bejlek

Sara Bejlek to win

58%probability

Dayana Yastremska won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L7-6(9) 6-3Alycia Parks#79vSara Bejlek#30Jul 23, 2025

L5-7 6-4 6-2Alycia Parks#79vSara Bejlek#30Jan 11, 2023

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Alycia Parks

7W 8L

6-3 1-6 7-5#181Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-3#100Taylah Preston

6-2 6-3#28Ann Li

3-6 6-2 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

2-6 6-4 6-4#77Petra Marcinko

6-2 6-2#56Viktorija Golubic

6-1 4-6 6-2#18Alexandra Eala

6-4 6-4#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-2 6-4#226Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-3#35Maria Sakkari

6-7(4) 6-2 7-5#167Mai Hontama

7-6(3) 6-4#470Valentini Grammatikopoulou

7-5 6-0#94Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-3#238Alicia Dudeney

4-6 6-3 7-5#88Emiliana Arango

Sara Bejlek

10W 5L

7-5 4-6 6-1#40Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-1#4Cori Gauff

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#24Madison Keys

7-6(7) 6-4#1Aryna Sabalenka

4-6 6-1 6-2#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-6(5) 6-4#29Barbora Krejcikova

6-0 6-2#57Karolina Pliskova

6-0 6-3#8Iga Swiatek

6-3 4-6 7-5#80Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-4#49Lilli Tagger

6-1 6-1#86Maria Timofeeva

7-6(9) 3-6 6-1#95Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#38Clara Tauson

6-2 6-2#49Lilli Tagger

6-0 7-5#312Viktoria Morvayova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlycia ParksParks

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Sara BejlekBejlekSB

Sara Bejlek carries the stronger recent form — Alycia Parks's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In51.0%+11.7pp62.7%

1st Serve Won68.0%+7.1pp60.9%

2nd Serve Won41.4%+7.0pp48.4%

Aces / Match6.1+4.81.3

Double Faults / Match8.15.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.0%+4.9pp45.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted55.1%+7.3pp47.8%

Break Pts Saved49.2%+4.4pp53.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.3%+2.7pp51.0%

Serve · 2–3

51.0%1st Serve In+11.7pp62.7%

68.0%1st Serve Won+7.1pp60.9%

41.4%2nd Serve Won+7.0pp48.4%

6.1Aces / Match+4.81.3

8.1Double Faults / Match5.7 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

41.0%Return Pts Won+4.9pp45.9%

Pressure · 1–1

55.1%Break Pts Converted+7.3pp47.8%

49.2%Break Pts Saved+4.4pp53.6%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won+2.7pp51.0%