Anna Blinkova #102Russia11 – 2Sara Bejlek #42Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Bejlek's superior career clay pedigree and home-tournament motivation give her a slight edge, despite Blinkova's slightly better recent form.

• Bejlek has a 66.9% career win rate on clay, her best surface, and 133 clay wins vs. Blinkova's 84 clay wins.
• Bejlek's last 15 overall record is 33.3% (5-10), but her clay record in that window is 28.6% (2-5) against strong opposition (Swiatek, Navarro, Bencic).
• Blinkova's last 15 clay record is 50% (2-2), but her overall last 15 record is 53.3% (8-7) with a 51.3% games won percentage.
• H2H is 1-1, with Bejlek winning their only clay meeting in 2024 (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Blinkova's matches are consistently close, and she rarely loses by a large margin, making +3.5 games a strong value.

• Blinkova's last 15 matches: average game differential is -0.6 per match (178 won, 169 lost).
• Bejlek's last 15 matches: average game differential is -2.2 per match (126 won, 159 lost).
• Blinkova has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of her last 15 matches (80%).
• Bejlek has failed to cover a -3.5 game handicap in 10 of her last 15 matches (67%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Blinkova's matches tend to be longer, and the competitive H2H history points to a match that could go over 21.5 games.

• Blinkova's last 15 matches average 23.1 total games per match (178 games won + 169 games lost / 15).
• Bejlek's last 15 matches average 19.0 total games per match (126 games won + 159 games lost / 15).
• Their clay H2H went to 3 sets with 28 total games.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 40-48% in recent form, suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Blinkova's first sets often go over 9.5 games, and with both players starting competitively, this line is likely to be exceeded.

• Blinkova's last 15 set1 average games: 9.8 (147 total games in 15 set1s).
• Bejlek's last 15 set1 average games: 8.7 (131 total games in 15 set1s).
• Combined, their set1s average 9.3 games, but Blinkova's set1s tend to be longer.
• In their clay H2H, set1 had 10 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Bejlek's elite first-set conversion rate and home-court energy suggest she may start faster, though Blinkova is also a strong starter.

• Bejlek's first-set win conversion rate is 93% career, indicating she starts matches strongly.
• Blinkova's first-set win conversion is 86%, also strong but slightly lower.
• In their clay H2H, Bejlek lost the first set 4-6 but came back to win.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40

The read

With Blinkova's tendency for three-setters and the competitive H2H, this match has a good chance of going the distance.

• Blinkova's last 15 matches: 7 of 15 went to 3 sets (47%).
• Bejlek's last 15 matches: 5 of 15 went to 3 sets (33%).
• Their clay H2H went to 3 sets.
• Both players have similar break-point conversion rates, indicating potential for extended sets.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace counts, especially on clay, making under 5.5 aces highly likely.

• Blinkova averages 1.4 aces per match in her last 15, with only 1 ace per match on clay in that window.
• Bejlek averages 0.9 aces per match in her last 15, with 0.4 aces per match on clay.
• Combined, their average aces per match is 2.3, well under 5.5.
• In their H2H matches, total aces were 4 and 0.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double-fault rates, and the pressure of a close match could push the total over 7.5.

• Blinkova averages 3.8 double faults per match in her last 15, with 3.8 on clay.
• Bejlek averages 3.5 double faults per match in her last 15, with 3.4 on clay.
• Combined average is 7.3 double faults per match, close to the 7.5 line.
• In their H2H, total double faults were 13 (7+6) and 0 (data missing for one match).