PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Marco Cecchinato #170Italy2Henri Squire #211Germany0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Tue 15 Sept 2026, 13:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarco Cecchinato · 41 places

Marco Cecchinato

Italy

Italian clay-court player whose career-high ATP ranking was No. 16 in February 2019. Official ATP and ITF profiles list him as right-handed with a one-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #170
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Henri Squire

Germany

German right-hander whose highest singles ranking is No. 169, reached in July 2024. The ITF lists carpet as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #211
Peak ranking: #169 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Cecchinato's clay-court pedigree gives him a slight edge, but Squire's return game and competitiveness make this a close match.

Betting value lies in Squire +3.5 games and over 7.5 total double faults, while Cecchinato at 1.40 offers no value.

Context

Henri Squire, 25, is the away player in this Szczecin first-round match. He retired from his Como match on 1 September after lower-back treatment and returned in Tulln on 8 September, but no update confirms the back issue is resolved.
Squire's retirement 13 days before this match leaves his current fitness uncertain. He did play in Tulln, which suggests he can compete, but the lack of clarity on his back means his movement and serving could be affected if the issue lingers. Cecchinato may face an opponent who is not fully fit, but Squire's return to competition is a counterweight to that concern.
- Squire retired at 4-6, 1-2 in Como on 1 September.
- Lower-back treatment was recorded during the first set.
- Stored recent sample: 1 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z against Filip Cristian Jianu ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
To watchSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 04:44 · Europe/BucharestJianu vs Squire, Como Challenger resultwww.lequipe.fr · 1 Sep 2026
Squire, 25, is a 196cm right-hander ranked 215 and has played mostly clay this season.
His retirement came just 13 days before this match, and he then lost 6-4 6-0 to Filip Misolic on September 8. That pattern suggests he may not be fully fit, which could affect his movement and stamina against Cecchinato.
- Squire retired at 6-4 2-1 ret. against Filip Cristian Jianu on 2026-09-01.
- He lost his next match 6-4 6-0 to Filip Misolic on 2026-09-08.
- No current injury news is available, but the retirement is within 30 days of this match.
Cecchinato, 33, is a clay-court specialist with a one-handed backhand and a career-high ranking of 16.
Cecchinato's recent clay record is 7-6, while Squire's is 7-7. However, Cecchinato's wins have mostly come against players ranked outside the top 200, so the form gap is not large. Squire's serve numbers are slightly better, but his double fault rate is much higher.
- Cecchinato last 15 on clay: 7 wins, 6 losses.
- Squire last 15 on clay: 7 wins, 7 losses.
- Cecchinato's clay wins include opponents ranked 284, 367, 262, 291, 223, 324.
- Squire's clay wins include opponents ranked 235, 169, 159, 271, 432, 191, 207.
Squire's second serve is a weakness, winning only 46.5% of points on clay in his last 14 matches.
Cecchinato's return game is solid, winning 39.2% of return points on clay. If Squire continues to double fault at this rate, Cecchinato should get extra break point chances, which could decide close sets.
- Squire double faults per match on clay: 5.8 (81 in 14 matches).
- Cecchinato double faults per match on clay: 2.2 (29 in 13 matches).
- Squire second serve points won on clay: 46.5%.
- Cecchinato return points won on clay: 39.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Marco Cecchinato

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Cecchinato's superior clay pedigree and slightly better recent clay form give him a modest edge, though Squire's comparable return stats keep it close.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Cecchinato's superior clay pedigree and slightly better recent clay form give him a modest edge, though Squire's comparable return stats keep it close.
- Cecchinato last 15 on clay: 7-6 record, 52.8% games won, 39.2% return points won.
- Squire last 15 on clay: 7-7 record, 50.4% games won, 40.5% return points won.
- Cecchinato career clay win percentage 56.8% vs Squire 55.4% overall, but Cecchinato has far more clay experience (533 career clay wins).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarco CecchinatoEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The close overall stats and both players' tendency to play tight sets make a longer match likely.
- Cecchinato last 15 average games per match: 23.2 (348 games / 15 matches).
- Squire last 15 average games per match: 20.6 (309 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (Cecchinato 51%, Squire 50%), indicating competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Squire's competitive recent form and Cecchinato's moderate edge suggest Squire can keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Cecchinato last 15 average games won per match: 12.1.
- Squire last 15 average games won per match: 10.3.
- Expected game difference is less than 3.5 games based on recent stats.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostHenri Squire +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given the players' comparable serve and return numbers.
- Cecchinato last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (based on 15 matches).
- Squire last 15 first set average games: 9.3 (based on 15 matches).
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages, suggesting close opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cecchinato's slightly stronger first serve and overall match edge suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Cecchinato first set win conversion career 84%.
- Squire first set win conversion career 87%.
- Cecchinato last 15 first serve points won 70.2% vs Squire 67.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarco CecchinatoEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Squire's high double fault rate is a major factor, making over 7.5 total double faults likely.
- Squire last 15 double faults per match: 6.2.
- Cecchinato last 15 double faults per match: 2.2.
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.4.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Squire's higher ace rate and Cecchinato's moderate ace count make over 6.5 total aces plausible.
- Cecchinato last 15 aces per match: 2.7.
- Squire last 15 aces per match: 4.0.
- Combined average aces per match: 6.7.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the match and both players' tiebreak experience suggest a tiebreak is possible.
- Cecchinato career tiebreak win percentage 54%.
- Squire career tiebreak win percentage 47%.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches (Cecchinato 3 in last 15, Squire 4 in last 15).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Marco Cecchinato has been highly reliable when projected to win

Marco Cecchinato has fulfilled 11 of 15 recent win projections, a 73% success rate. His average estimated probability was 66.3%, with an expected 9.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating he has outperformed expectations. All four misses came as losses, with no draws or wins in those matches.

Recent evidence for Marco Cecchinato15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#132Alexandre Muller2-1#174Marco Cecchinato

BetBugsMarco Cecchinato to win·62%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#132Alexandre Muller2-1#174Marco Cecchinato

Marco Cecchinato to win

62%probability

Alexandre Muller won

Missed

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#173Marco Cecchinato2-0#264Franco Agamenone

BetBugsMarco Cecchinato to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#173Marco Cecchinato2-0#264Franco Agamenone

Marco Cecchinato to win

62%probability

Marco Cecchinato won

Matched

12 Jul·ATP Umag

#195Marco Cecchinato2-0#201Genaro Alberto Olivieri

BetBugsMarco Cecchinato to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#195Marco Cecchinato2-0#201Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Marco Cecchinato to win

65%probability

Marco Cecchinato won

Matched

11 Jul·ATP Umag

#195Marco Cecchinato2-0#281Duje Ajdukovic

BetBugsMarco Cecchinato to win·62%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#195Marco Cecchinato2-0#281Duje Ajdukovic

Marco Cecchinato to win

62%probability

Marco Cecchinato won

Matched

5 Jul·Milan - Italy

#120Facundo Diaz Acosta2-1#195Marco Cecchinato

BetBugsMarco Cecchinato to win·58%

Missed

5 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#120Facundo Diaz Acosta2-1#195Marco Cecchinato

Marco Cecchinato to win

58%probability

Facundo Diaz Acosta won

Missed

Marco Cecchinato

8W 7L

6-7(2) 7-6(2) 6-4#206Laslo Djere

6-3 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

4-6 6-0 6-3#284Nick Hardt

6-4 6-3#121Vilius Gaubas

7-6(4) 6-3#197Liam Broady

6-4 4-6 6-2#329Nicolas Kicker

6-4 6-4#262Juan Bautista Torres

6-1 6-3#367Francesco Forti

6-3 7-5#284Nick Hardt

4-6 6-2 7-5#138Alexandre Muller

6-3 6-4#291Franco Agamenone

6-1 6-4#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-4#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-3 6-4#324Duje Ajdukovic

6-7(0) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

Henri Squire

7W 8L

6-4 6-0#537Filip Misolic

6-4 2-1 ret.#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#192David Jorda Sanchis

6-3 7-6(5)#145Tom Gentzsch

6-4 6-1#235Alex Barrena

6-2 7-5#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-2 7-6(5)#260Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

4-6 6-4 6-4#159Clement Tabur

5-2 ret.#109Otto Virtanen

6-3 6-3#271Franco Roncadelli

6-2 7-6(3)#432Mika Petkovic

6-3 6-1#186Jan Kumstat

6-4 3-6 6-3#254Matej Dodig

6-2 6-3#191Lukas Neumayer

5-7 6-4 7-5#207Francesco Passaro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MCMarco CecchinatoCecchinato

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Henri SquireSquireHS

Marco Cecchinato carries the stronger recent form — Henri Squire's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.2%—66.9%

1st Serve Won70.2%+2.7pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won51.5%+5.4pp46.1%

Aces / Match2.7+1.34.0

Double Faults / Match2.24.0 fewer6.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.5%+1.8pp40.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted39.0%+2.8pp36.2%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+10.3pp46.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+1.0pp50.0%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

66.2%1st Serve In—66.9%

70.2%1st Serve Won+2.7pp67.5%

51.5%2nd Serve Won+5.4pp46.1%

2.7Aces / Match+1.34.0

2.2Double Faults / Match4.0 fewer6.2

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won+1.8pp40.3%

Pressure · 2–0

39.0%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp36.2%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+10.3pp46.8%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+1.0pp50.0%