Alexandre Muller #132France22 – 1Marco Cecchinato #174Italy1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Cecchinato's edge, Muller's competitiveness in games (44.7% won) and the potential for tight sets suggest a match exceeding 21.5 total games.

• Cecchinato last15 clay matches: 55.6% games won, average 12.5 games per match
• Muller last15 clay matches: 44.7% games won, average 9.0 games per match
• Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
• Cecchinato last15 clay average match duration: 102.6 minutes

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to play competitive first sets on clay, with averages near 9.5 games, making over 9.5 likely.

• Muller last15 clay first set average games: 9.4 (based on 14 matches)
• Cecchinato last15 clay first set average games: 9.6 (based on 14 matches)
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks or 7-5 sets recently

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Cecchinato's stronger serve and return numbers on clay in the recent window should allow him to start fast, despite Muller's slightly better break point saving.

• Cecchinato last15 clay first serve points won: 72.0%, Muller: 66.4%
• Cecchinato last15 clay return points won: 39.5%, Muller: 37.4%
• Muller last15 clay break points saved: 61.5%, Cecchinato: 50.9%
• Cecchinato career first set win conversion: 85%, Muller: 88%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average low ace counts on clay, making under 5.5 total aces the most likely outcome.

• Cecchinato last15 clay aces per match: 1.9
• Muller last15 clay aces per match: 2.2
• Combined average aces per match: 4.1
• Neither player is a big server on clay

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cecchinato's high double fault rate (2.8 per match) pushes the combined average above 3.5, though Muller's low rate keeps confidence low.

• Cecchinato last15 clay double faults per match: 2.8
• Muller last15 clay double faults per match: 1.0
• Combined average: 3.8 double faults per match