United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Aidan Mayo #625United States1Ryan Seggerman #659United States2

Sets 6-1 · 4-6 · 4-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–260%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Mayo · 34 places

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #625
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Ryan Seggerman

United States

ITF lists hard as Seggerman's preferred surface. His career-high singles ranking was No. 348 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #659
Peak ranking: #348 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Aidan Mayo is favored over Ryan Seggerman based on superior recent hard-court form and ranking.

Mayo's return game should counter Seggerman's strong serve, but the match could feature tiebreaks and longer games. No clear betting value exists in the main markets, with slight leans toward overs on total games and aces.

Context

Mayo, ranked 362, has been playing almost exclusively on hard courts and has a 10-5 record in his last 15 matches, all on that surface.
Mayo's consistent hard-court schedule and 66.7% win rate in that sample give him a clear recent form edge over Seggerman, who has only a 50% hard-court record in his last four matches and has spent much of the recent window on clay. However, Seggerman's two hard-court wins came in his most recent two matches, suggesting he may be adjusting back to the surface.
- Mayo's last 15 matches are all on hard courts, with a 10-5 record.
- Seggerman's last 15 matches include 9 on clay, 4 on hard, and 2 on grass; his hard-court record in that span is 2-2.
- Seggerman won his last two hard-court matches (Sept 13-14), but before that he lost two straight on hard in August.
Seggerman, ranked 672, is a tall player at 193 cm and relies on a powerful serve.
Seggerman's ace count and first-serve points won are significantly higher than Mayo's (5.7 aces, 74.9% first-serve points won), which could give him free points. However, his first-serve percentage is only 60.5% compared to Mayo's 57%, and his double-fault rate is slightly lower but still a concern. On hard courts specifically, Seggerman's first-serve points won jumps to 85.1%, but that sample is only three matches.
- Seggerman: 11.4 aces/match, 77.1% first-serve points won, 60.5% first-serve in, 3.4 double faults/match (last 15 matches).
- Mayo: 5.7 aces/match, 74.9% first-serve points won, 57% first-serve in, 4.3 double faults/match (last 15 matches).
- Seggerman's hard-court first-serve points won is 85.1% in 3 matches, but sample size is small.
Mayo has been very active on the Challenger circuit, often playing multiple matches per week.
Mayo's recent schedule includes five matches in the last week alone (Aug 25-29), and his average match duration is 117.9 minutes. Seggerman's last two matches were on Sept 13-14, but before that he had a three-week gap. This workload difference could affect Mayo's freshness, though he has shown no signs of physical issues.
- Mayo played 5 matches between Aug 25-29, all in the same tournament.
- Mayo's average match duration in last 15 is 117.9 minutes.
- Seggerman had a gap from Aug 22 to Sept 13 without matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Aidan Mayo

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Mayo's stronger recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a clear edge in this first-round match.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Aidan Mayo

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Mayo's superior return game and consistent first-set performance should give him the early lead.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mayo's stronger recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a clear edge in this first-round match.
- Mayo last 15 hard-court record 10-5 (66.7%), Seggerman last 15 hard-court record 2-2 (50%)
- Mayo last 15 total points won 52.1% vs Seggerman 50.9%
- Mayo ranking 362 vs Seggerman 672
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting a higher total games line.
- Mayo last 15 average 23.5 games per match, Seggerman last 15 average 26.2 games per match
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Mayo 53% career, Seggerman 49% career
- Seggerman's last two hard-court matches went 22 and 33 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mayo's superior return game and consistent first-set performance should give him the early lead.
- Mayo first-set win conversion 86% career, Seggerman 91% career
- Mayo last 15 first-serve points won 74.9% vs Seggerman 77.1%
- Mayo last 15 return points won 38.5% vs Seggerman 35.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently play tiebreaks, increasing the likelihood of at least one in this match.
- Mayo career tiebreak win percentage 53%, Seggerman 49%
- Seggerman's last two hard-court matches both featured a tiebreak
- Mayo's recent matches include multiple tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Seggerman's high ace rate on hard courts, combined with Mayo's moderate ace output, supports the over.
- Seggerman last 15 hard-court aces per match 15.0 (3 matches tracked)
- Mayo last 15 aces per match 5.7
- Combined average aces per match approximately 20.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double fault rates, making the over a reasonable play.
- Mayo last 15 double faults per match 4.3
- Seggerman last 15 hard-court double faults per match 5.3 (3 matches tracked)
- Combined average double faults per match approximately 9.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Aidan Mayo

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(7)#203Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#658Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-4#313Andres Martin

6-4 2-6 6-4—Benjamin Willwerth

7-5 7-5#760Matthew Forbes

4-6 7-5 6-3#690Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-2—Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

6-2 6-3#444Timo Legout

6-3 5-7 6-2#291Stefan Kozlov

6-2 6-2#214Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#693Ryan Dickerson

7-6(3) 7-5#135Rei Sakamoto

6-4 7-6(7)#269Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#525Christian Langmo

4-6 6-3 6-4#67James Duckworth

Ryan Seggerman

9W 6L

7-6(6) 6-3#499Alex Rybakov 6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#424Andrew Fenty

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#258Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 6-4#164Gauthier Onclin

7-6(4) 6-3#719Patrick Brady

6-4 6-2—Ali Habib

4-6 6-1 7-6(4)#183Laslo Djere

6-2 6-1#524Luca Wiedenmann

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#495Miguel Tobon

6-7(3) 7-6(7) 6-4#345Marko Topo

6-3 7-6(2)#231Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-0#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#232Jay Clarke

6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)#153Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 4-6 6-4#786Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAidan MayoMayo

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Ryan SeggermanSeggermanRS

Ryan Seggerman carries the stronger recent form — Aidan Mayo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.0%+3.5pp60.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1574.9%+2.2pp77.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.3%+1.8pp52.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.7+5.711.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.30.9 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.5%+3.1pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.5%+9.3pp29.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.0%+6.5pp70.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.1%+1.2pp50.9%

Serve · 1–4

57.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp60.5%

74.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp77.1%

54.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp52.5%

5.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+5.711.4

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.9 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

38.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.1pp35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

38.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+9.3pp29.2%

64.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp70.5%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp50.9%