United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andrew Fenty #394United States1Ryan Seggerman #659United States2

Sets 7-6 · 5-7 · 2-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 23:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Fenty · 265 places

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #394
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Ryan Seggerman

United States

ITF lists hard as Seggerman's preferred surface. His career-high singles ranking was No. 348 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #659
Peak ranking: #348 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Fenty's superior hard-court form and ranking make him a strong favorite, with value on the moneyline and set 1 winner at 1.85.

Seggerman's serve could keep it close, but Fenty's consistency and recent straight-set wins suggest a 2-0 victory. Lean over 21.5 total games and over 15.5 aces, but confidence is low.

Context

Fenty, ranked 397, is a 23-year-old American who has played most of his tennis on hard courts, with a career record of 102-80 on the surface.
Fenty's recent hard-court results include wins over Alvaro Guillen Meza and Braden Shick, showing he can beat higher-ranked opponents. Seggerman, ranked 683, has lost his last two hard-court matches to Abedallah Shelbayh and Gauthier Onclin, and his overall hard-court record this year is just 1-3. This surface form gap is likely to be a key factor in the match.
- Fenty's last 15 matches on hard courts: 9 wins, 6 losses.
- Seggerman's last 2 hard-court matches: 0 wins, 2 losses.
- Fenty beat Alvaro Guillen Meza (ranked 285) and Braden Shick (ranked 216) in his last 15 matches.
- Seggerman lost to Abedallah Shelbayh (ranked 251) and Gauthier Onclin (ranked 158) in his last two hard-court matches.
Seggerman, 25, is a tall American with a powerful serve, as shown by his 11.4 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
Seggerman's first serve is effective, winning 75.2% of points, but his return game is weak, winning only 36.1% of return points. Fenty's first serve is less dominant but he wins 68% of first-serve points and 39.3% of return points, giving him a slight edge in return. If Seggerman cannot improve his return, he may struggle to break Fenty's serve.
- Seggerman's last 15 matches: 11.4 aces per match, 75.2% first-serve points won, 36.1% return points won.
- Fenty's last 15 matches: 5.2 aces per match, 68% first-serve points won, 39.3% return points won.
Fenty has been very active recently, playing 15 matches since mid-June, with two retirements in that span.
Fenty retired from matches against Jeff Wolf on July 13 and Edward Winter on June 30, both due to injury. He has since played five matches without retiring, but the heavy schedule and previous physical issues could be a concern in a long match. Seggerman has played fewer matches recently and may be fresher.
- Fenty retired against Jeff Wolf on July 13, 2026.
- Fenty retired against Edward Winter on June 30, 2026.
- Fenty has played 15 matches since June 18, 2026.
Ryan Seggerman, ATP No. 683, is the right-hander in this Tiburon qualifying match.
He played a three-set doubles match at the US Open on 7 September, six days before this match. That adds a recent competitive workload, but the gap should allow enough recovery for a best-of-three qualifying contest.
- Seggerman and Patrik Trhac played Austin Krajicek and Nikola Mektic in a three-set second-round match on 7 September.
- Stored recent sample: 1 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 15:25 · Europe/BucharestUS Open: Siniakova/Townsend, Harrison/Skupski advance in doubles at the 2026 US Openwww.usopen.org · 7 Sep 2026US Open: Seggerman/Trhac vs. Krajicek/Mektic, 2026 Round 2www.usopen.org · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Fenty has a clear surface-fit and recent-form edge on hard courts, while Seggerman's hard-court sample is poor and thin.
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 9-6 record, 54.9% games won, 51.5% total points won.
- Seggerman last 15 on hard: 0-2 record, 44.9% games won, 48.9% total points won (only 2 matches tracked).
- Fenty ranking 397 vs Seggerman 683; Fenty 2026 hard record 23-14 vs Seggerman 1-3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting a higher total games line.
- Fenty last 15 average 103.8 minutes, 19.2 games per match.
- Seggerman last 15 average 115 minutes, 25.7 games per match.
- Both players have similar total points won around 51%, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been close, with both players showing similar tiebreak rates.
- Fenty last 15 first-set average 9.6 games (based on recent scores).
- Seggerman last 15 first-set average 10.1 games.
- Both players have tiebreak history: Fenty 50% career, Seggerman 49% career.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenty's hard-court edge should translate to a multi-game victory margin.
- Fenty last 15 games won 54.9% vs Seggerman 50.9%.
- Fenty hard-court games won 54.9% vs Seggerman 44.9%.
- Fenty ranking advantage suggests a comfortable margin.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndrew Fenty -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Fenty's stronger hard-court baseline and recent first-set success give him the edge in set 1.
- Fenty first-set win conversion career 89%; last 15 first-serve points won 68%.
- Seggerman first-set win conversion career 91%, but last 15 hard first-serve points won 90.5% in only 1 tracked match.
- Fenty recent hard matches: won first set in 6 of last 8 completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's straight-set tendency on hard courts supports under 2.5 sets.
- Fenty last 15: 9 wins, 6 in straight sets.
- Seggerman last 15: 9 wins, 5 in straight sets.
- Fenty's hard-court dominance reduces likelihood of a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Seggerman's high ace rate, even if hard-court sample is small, pushes combined aces over the line.
- Fenty last 15 aces per match 5.2.
- Seggerman last 15 aces per match 11.4 (14 matches tracked).
- Seggerman hard-court sample: 16 aces in 1 tracked match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have near-even tiebreak records and recent close sets, increasing tiebreak likelihood.
- Fenty career tiebreak win percentage 50%.
- Seggerman career tiebreak win percentage 49%.
- Recent matches show multiple tiebreaks for both players.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3-4 double faults per match, making over 6.5 plausible.
- Fenty last 15 double faults per match 3.8.
- Seggerman last 15 double faults per match 3.2.
- Combined average 7.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Andrew Fenty has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Andrew Fenty has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 61.8%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so he slightly underperformed. The two misses were losses, and his current 68% probability is within his historical range of 55-72%.

Recent evidence for Andrew Fenty4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·Cary - USA

#434Edward Winter1-0#400Andrew Fenty

BetBugsAndrew Fenty to win·58%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#434Edward Winter1-0#400Andrew Fenty

Andrew Fenty to win

58%probability

Edward Winter won

Missed

29 Jun·Cary - USA

#383Andrew Fenty2-0#431Masamichi Imamura

BetBugsAndrew Fenty to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#383Andrew Fenty2-0#431Masamichi Imamura

Andrew Fenty to win

62%probability

Andrew Fenty won

Matched

28 Jun·Cary - USA

#383Andrew Fenty2-0#507Karl Poling

BetBugsAndrew Fenty to win·72%

Matched

28 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#383Andrew Fenty2-0#507Karl Poling

Andrew Fenty to win

72%probability

Andrew Fenty won

Matched

25 May·Little Rock - USA

#392Andrew Fenty0-2#423Justin Boulais

BetBugsAndrew Fenty to win·55%

Missed

25 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#392Andrew Fenty0-2#423Justin Boulais

Andrew Fenty to win

55%probability

Justin Boulais won

Missed

Andrew Fenty

9W 6L

7-5 7-5#660Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-2 6-3#697Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-4#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

7-5 6-2#525Evan Zhu

2-6 6-3 6-4#717Hunter Heck

7-6(2) 6-1#139Lloyd Harris

6-1 6-4#840Evan King

6-4 6-1—Eli Dieveney

6-7(11) 4-1 ret.#253Jeff Wolf

3-0 ret.#344Edward Winter

6-4 6-1#398Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-3#459Karl Poling

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#545Gavin Young

6-3 6-4#216Braden Shick

6-4 6-2#513Enzo Aguiard

Ryan Seggerman

9W 6L

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

7-6(4) 6-3#716Patrick Brady

6-4 6-2—Ali Habib

4-6 6-1 7-6(4)#206Laslo Djere

6-2 6-1#547Luca Wiedenmann

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#472Miguel Tobon

6-7(3) 7-6(7) 6-4#341Marko Topo

6-3 7-6(2)#258Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-0#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#242Jay Clarke

6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 4-6 6-4#795Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

7-5 7-6(5)#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-4 7-5#292Matteo Martineau

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFAndrew FentyFenty

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Ryan SeggermanSeggermanRS

Ryan Seggerman carries the stronger recent form — Andrew Fenty's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.7%+2.3pp61.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.0%+7.2pp75.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.9%—53.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.2+6.211.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.80.6 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.3%+3.2pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.1%+13.5pp30.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1565.1%+4.5pp69.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.5%—50.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp61.4%

68.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.2pp75.2%

53.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—53.2%

5.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+6.211.4

3.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

39.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

44.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+13.5pp30.6%

65.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp69.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.8%