United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Ryan Seggerman #659United States2Alex Rybakov #507United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Mon 14 Sept 2026, 18:55 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Rybakov · 152 places

Ryan Seggerman

United States

ITF lists hard as Seggerman's preferred surface. His career-high singles ranking was No. 348 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #659
Peak ranking: #348 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Alex Rybakov

United States

Structured player data lists Rybakov at No. 507, left-handed with a one-handed backhand, and 185 cm. A retirement is listed at the Cary Challenger in late June 2026, but the requested sources do not identify an active issue for Roehampton.

Current ranking: #507
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Rybakov's superior return game, first-serve consistency, and hard-court experience give him a structural edge over Seggerman despite Seggerman's better recent overall record.

Back Rybakov to win at odds around 2.00, with an estimated 58% probability versus the implied 50%. The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games also offering value.

Context

Seggerman, ranked 672, is a 193cm American who has played mostly clay this season.
His last three hard-court matches show a 1-2 record, including a win over Andrew Fenty and losses to Abedallah Shelbayh and Gauthier Onclin. The sample is small, but his hard-court numbers are below his clay-court level, which may matter on this surface.
- Seggerman's last 3 hard-court matches: 1 win, 2 losses.
- His hard-court record in last15Stats is 33.3% (1-2), with only 3 matches tracked.
- On clay, he has a 70% win rate in the same window (7-3).
Rybakov, ranked 478, is a left-hander with a one-handed backhand and a career win rate of 58.9%.
His recent hard-court record is 4-6, including a first-round win over Dan Martin and a loss to Oliver Bonding. His serve and return numbers are average, so he has not shown a clear edge on this surface.
- Rybakov's last 10 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 6 losses.
- His hard-court record in last15Stats is 40% (4-6).
- He has a 46.7% overall win rate in his last 15 matches.
Seggerman's first-serve points won is 76.6% in his last 14 matches, showing a strong serve.
His high ace count and first-serve effectiveness can keep him in games, but his low return points won (35.4%) suggests he may struggle to break Rybakov's serve. This could lead to tiebreaks or close sets.
- Seggerman averages 12.4 aces per match in his last 14 matches.
- He wins 76.6% of first-serve points.
- He wins only 35.4% of return points.
Rybakov's career return points won is 40%, and his recent form matches that.
His better return numbers could give him more break opportunities against Seggerman's serve. However, Seggerman's strong first serve may limit those chances, so the edge is modest.
- Rybakov wins 40.1% of return points in his last 15 matches.
- Seggerman wins 35.4% of return points in his last 14 matches.
- Rybakov's break point conversion is 38.5% vs Seggerman's 30.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Rybakov's superior return game, first-serve consistency, and greater experience on hard courts give him a structural edge despite Seggerman's better recent overall record.
- Rybakov last15 overall record 46.7% vs Seggerman 60%, but on hard courts Rybakov 40% (4-6) vs Seggerman 33.3% (1-2).
- Rybakov return points won 40.1% overall and 39% on hard; Seggerman 35.4% overall and 33.7% on hard.
- Rybakov first serve in 70.9% overall and 73.3% on hard; Seggerman 61.4% overall and 57.9% on hard.
- Rybakov ranking 478 vs Seggerman 672; Rybakov has 332 career wins vs Seggerman 79.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlex RybakovEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The players' comparable serve and return stats suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Seggerman last15 average 118.8 minutes per match; Rybakov 118.2 minutes.
- Seggerman last15 games won 51% (202/396); Rybakov 52% (178/342).
- Both players have similar tiebreak win percentages around 49% career.
- Seggerman's last match went 3 sets with 33 games; Rybakov's last match was straight sets with 18 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' serving ability and similar return stats.
- Seggerman last15 first set average games: 9.9 (from recent matches); Rybakov 9.3.
- Both players have high first-serve percentages, which can lead to longer sets.
- Seggerman's last match first set went to tiebreak; Rybakov's last match first set was 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakov's superior return and first-serve consistency should allow him to win by at least 2 games.
- Rybakov games won 52% overall vs Seggerman 51%.
- Rybakov return points won 40.1% vs Seggerman 35.4%.
- Rybakov first serve in 70.9% vs Seggerman 61.4%.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlex Rybakov -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakov's stronger return and higher first-serve percentage should help him start faster, though Seggerman's first-set conversion rate is elite.
- Rybakov first set win conversion 87% career vs Seggerman 91%.
- Rybakov won first set in 6 of last 10 hard court matches; Seggerman won first set in 1 of last 3 hard court matches.
- Rybakov first serve points won 68.3% overall; Seggerman 76.6% overall but only 86% on hard (small sample).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlex RybakovEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The players' comparable serve and return stats make a tiebreak likely in at least one set.
- Seggerman career tiebreak win percentage 49%; Rybakov 49%.
- Seggerman last15 matches: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (26.7%).
- Rybakov last15 matches: 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches (20%).
- Both players have similar serving stats, increasing likelihood of tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Seggerman's high ace rate, especially on hard courts, should push the total over 12.5 despite Rybakov's lower ace count.
- Seggerman last15 aces per match 12.4 overall, 21 on hard (2 matches).
- Rybakov last15 aces per match 5.9 overall, 5.7 on hard.
- Combined average aces per match: 18.3 overall, but hard court sample for Seggerman is small.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Seggerman's high double fault rate on hard courts could push the total over 5.5.
- Seggerman last15 double faults per match 3.4 overall, 7 on hard (2 matches).
- Rybakov last15 double faults per match 2.5 overall, 2.3 on hard.
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.9 overall, 9.3 on hard (small sample).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Ryan Seggerman

9W 6L

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#397Andrew Fenty

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

7-6(4) 6-3#719Patrick Brady

6-4 6-2—Ali Habib

4-6 6-1 7-6(4)#206Laslo Djere

6-2 6-1#524Luca Wiedenmann

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#495Miguel Tobon

6-7(3) 7-6(7) 6-4#341Marko Topo

6-3 7-6(2)#258Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 6-0#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#242Jay Clarke

6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 4-6 6-4#786Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

7-5 7-6(5)#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

Alex Rybakov

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#620Dan Martin

5-7 6-4 6-3#861Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#237Charles Broom

6-1 7-6(0)#559Fares Zakaria

6-2 3-6 6-1#308Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-2—Billy Blaydes

6-3 6-3#895Matthew Summers

0-6 6-3 7-6(3)#900Charlie Robertson

3-6 6-4 6-3#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 7-6(8)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#518Hiroki Moriya

1-6 6-1 6-2#627Bruno Kuzuhara

6-2 1-6 6-3—Joaquim Almeida

4-6 6-1 6-3—Liam Krall

6-3 6-4#651Ryan Colby

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RSRyan SeggermanSeggerman

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Alex RybakovRybakovAR

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1561.4%+9.5pp70.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1576.6%+8.3pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.5%+3.1pp49.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/1512.4+6.55.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.40.9 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1535.4%+4.7pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1530.8%+7.7pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1571.3%+5.2pp66.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.9%—51.4%

Serve · 3–2

61.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+9.5pp70.9%

76.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.3pp68.3%

52.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.1pp49.4%

12.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+6.55.9

3.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.9 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

35.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.7pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

30.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.7pp38.5%

71.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp66.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—51.4%