FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Ugo Blanchet #190France2Billy Harris #167United Kingdom0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBilly Harris · 23 places

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 22 January 1995. His documented career-high singles ranking is No. 101 in September 2024; no reliable current source established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #101 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Billy Harris holds a slight edge over Ugo Blanchet due to his superior return game and slightly better recent form.

The match is expected to be competitive, with over 22.5 total games and a tiebreak likely. Harris on the moneyline at 2.05 offers a small value edge.

Context

Blanchet, 26, is a French right-hander ranked 199 and has a career 56.5% win rate. Harris, 31, is a British right-hander ranked 161 with a 58.7% career win rate.
On hard courts in the last 15 matches, Blanchet has a 50% win rate (4-4) and Harris has 40% (4-6). However, their total points won are nearly identical: Blanchet 51.6% vs Harris 49.6%. This suggests a close match with no clear edge from recent hard-court results.
- Blanchet last 15 on hard: 4 wins, 4 losses, 51.6% total points won.
- Harris last 15 on hard: 4 wins, 6 losses, 49.6% total points won.
Harris is a tall player at 193 cm and has a career return points won percentage of 39%.
Harris's better return numbers could give him more break opportunities, but Blanchet's higher first-serve points won (73.3% vs 65.9%) may offset that. The match could hinge on who converts break points.
- Harris hard-court return points won: 40.5% (298/735).
- Blanchet hard-court return points won: 37.5% (290/774).
- Blanchet hard-court first-serve points won: 73.3%; Harris: 65.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Harris's superior return game and slightly better recent form give him a narrow edge on indoor hard.
- Billy Harris has a 7-8 record in last 15 matches, while Ugo Blanchet is 6-9.
- Harris has a higher return points won percentage (39.3%) than Blanchet (34.7%) in last 15 matches.
- Harris has a better career win percentage (58.7%) and higher ranking (161 vs 199).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been high-scoring, making over 22.5 games likely.
- Blanchet's last 15 matches average 26.1 games per match (196 games won + 204 games lost).
- Harris's last 15 matches average 24.5 games per match (187 games won + 180 games lost).
- Both players have played several three-set matches recently, indicating competitive encounters.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent first sets supports over 9.5 games.
- Blanchet's recent first sets have often gone to 10+ games (e.g., 6-4, 7-6).
- Harris's first sets have also been competitive, with several 7-5 or 7-6 scores.
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages, suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive given both players' ability to hold serve under pressure.
- Blanchet's second sets have been close, with many going to 6-4 or 7-6.
- Harris has shown resilience in second sets, often forcing tiebreaks or extended games.
- Both players have similar break point save percentages (65.7% vs 62.4%).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players suggests this match is likely to go the distance.
- Blanchet has played 9 three-set matches in his last 15 (60%).
- Harris has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15 (47%).
- Both players have similar deciding set win percentages (53% vs 55%).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's overall set win rate suggests a slight edge in the opening set, though Blanchet's strong first serve keeps it close.
- Harris has won 51.4% of sets in last 15 matches, Blanchet 41%.
- Harris's first serve points won on hard is 65.9%, Blanchet's 73.3%.
- Blanchet has a higher first set win conversion (86%) but lower recent set win rate.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBilly HarrisEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high number of tiebreaks in recent matches for both players makes a tiebreak likely.
- Blanchet has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Harris has played 6 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50% (54% and 49%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total over 10.5 is plausible, though variance is high.
- Blanchet averages 5.6 aces per match in last 15, Harris 5.4.
- Combined average aces per match is 11.0.
- Both players have similar ace rates on hard courts (5.0 and 4.0 per match).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages slightly favor over 6.5, but the margin is thin.
- Blanchet averages 3.1 double faults per match, Harris 3.8.
- Combined average double faults per match is 6.9.
- Both players have similar double fault rates on hard courts (3.3 and 4.2).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Billy Harris has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Billy Harris has fulfilled 5 of 9 recent win predictions, a 56% success rate. His average estimated probability was 59.7%, with an expected 5.4 fulfilled predictions, so he has performed slightly below expectation. All four missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins by the opponent in those matches.

Recent evidence for Billy Harris9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·ATP Washington

#261Abedallah Shelbayh2-0#155Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·58%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#261Abedallah Shelbayh2-0#155Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

58%probability

Abedallah Shelbayh won

Missed

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#239Yi Zhou1-3#140Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#239Yi Zhou1-3#140Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#172Zsombor Piros0-2#140Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·60%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#172Zsombor Piros0-2#140Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

60%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#245Stefano Napolitano0-2#142Billy Harris

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#245Stefano Napolitano0-2#142Billy Harris

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

17 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#142Billy Harris2-1#135Arthur Gea

BetBugsBilly Harris to win·62%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#142Billy Harris2-1#135Arthur Gea

Billy Harris to win

62%probability

Billy Harris won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ugo Blanchet

6W 9L

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#378Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 6-3#208Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#109Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#229Stefano Napolitano

6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#157Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-3#308Oliver Tarvet

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#214Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#126Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#237Charles Broom

6-3 7-6(2)#600Pierre Delage

6-1 5-7 6-2#429Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-4#215Henri Squire

Billy Harris

7W 8L

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#226Moez Echargui

7-5 6-3#243Hugo Grenier

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#252Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#243Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#110Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#50Karen Khachanov

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#248Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-2#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#109Otto Virtanen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

UBUgo BlanchetBlanchet

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Billy HarrisHarrisBH

Ugo Blanchet carries the stronger recent form — Billy Harris's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In51.7%+7.2pp58.9%

1st Serve Won73.7%+4.5pp69.2%

2nd Serve Won58.2%+9.6pp48.6%

Aces / Match5.6—5.4

Double Faults / Match3.10.7 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.7%+4.6pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted28.6%+9.9pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved65.7%+3.3pp62.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.1%—49.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

51.7%1st Serve In+7.2pp58.9%

73.7%1st Serve Won+4.5pp69.2%

58.2%2nd Serve Won+9.6pp48.6%

5.6Aces / Match—5.4

3.1Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

34.7%Return Pts Won+4.6pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

28.6%Break Pts Converted+9.9pp38.5%

65.7%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp62.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.1%Total Pts Won—49.9%