FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Masur #397Germany2Daniel De Jonge #568Netherlands1

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 7-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 12:50 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Masur · 171 places

Daniel Masur

Germany

Masur reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 176 in March 2022. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface; current match data lists him at No. 397.

Current ranking: #397
Peak ranking: #176 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Daniel De Jonge

Netherlands

De Jonge, 27, is a right-hander from Vlissingen. His listed career-best singles ranking is No. 597, reached in July 2026.

Current ranking: #568
Peak ranking: #597 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Masur is favored but overpriced at 1.30; the model sees him at only 58% win probability.

The match is closer than rankings suggest, with De Jonge's return game a key factor. Best value lies in over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 total aces.

Context

Masur, ranked 378, has been more consistent recently with a 10-5 record in his last 15 matches, including wins over players ranked inside the top 200.
De Jonge, ranked 568, has a 9-6 record in the same span but has lost to lower-ranked opponents like Adan Freire Da Silva (ranked 868) and Robert Strombachs (ranked 415). Masur's stronger recent results against better opposition suggest he may have an edge in this matchup.
- Masur's last 15 record: 10-5 (66.7% win rate).
- De Jonge's last 15 record: 9-6 (60% win rate).
- Masur beat Jurij Rodionov (ranked 143) and Ugo Blanchet (ranked 199) in his last 5 matches.
- De Jonge lost to Adan Freire Da Silva (ranked 868) and Robert Strombachs (ranked 415) in his last 5 matches.
De Jonge's serve has been inconsistent recently, with a high double fault rate and a low first serve percentage.
In his last 15 matches, De Jonge has averaged 4.2 double faults per match and only 58.6% first serves in. Masur's return game is solid, winning 37.1% of return points, so De Jonge's serving issues could be costly.
- De Jonge's double faults per match: 4.2 (63 total in 15 matches).
- De Jonge's first serve in percentage: 58.6%.
- Masur's return points won percentage: 37.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Daniel Masur

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Masur's higher ranking and slightly better recent record give him a narrow edge, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Masur's higher ranking and slightly better recent record give him a narrow edge, though De Jonge's comparable stats keep it close.
- Masur last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), De Jonge 9-6 (60%)
- Masur career win% 57.2% vs De Jonge 57.2% (equal)
- Masur ranking 378 vs De Jonge 568
- Masur last15 total points won 51.0% vs De Jonge 51.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniel MasurEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive sets suggest a total above 21.5 games is likely.
- Masur last15 average games per match 24.1 (361 games / 15 matches)
- De Jonge last15 average games per match 20.4 (306 games / 15 matches)
- Masur last15 average duration 103 min, De Jonge 91.1 min
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have often been close, with several tiebreaks, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Masur last15 first set average games 9.7 (based on 15 matches)
- De Jonge last15 first set average games 9.3 (based on 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Masur's slight edge in ranking and recent form supports a narrow game handicap win.
- Masur last15 games won 52.1%
- De Jonge last15 games won 53.3%
- Masur ranking advantage
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaniel Masur -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Masur's strong first-set conversion and slightly better serve metrics support a small edge in the opening set.
- Masur first set win conversion 82% career
- De Jonge first set win conversion 89% career
- Masur last15 first serve points won 74.0% vs De Jonge 73.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniel MasurEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 5 aces per match, making over 9.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Masur last15 aces per match 5.1
- De Jonge last15 aces per match 4.9
- Combined average aces per match 10.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jonge's higher double fault rate pushes the combined total above 6.5.
- Masur last15 double faults per match 2.4
- De Jonge last15 double faults per match 4.2
- Combined average double faults per match 6.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tiebreaks frequently, making at least one tiebreak likely.
- Masur last15 tiebreak win% 48% (career)
- De Jonge last15 tiebreak win% 59% (career)
- Recent matches show multiple tiebreaks for both players
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Daniel Masur

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#875Adrien Gobat 7-6(2) 7-5#152Mark Lajal 2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#199Ugo Blanchet

5-7 6-3 6-1#143Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-4#281Dan Added

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#488Luca Potenza

7-6(3) 6-1#306Facundo Mena

6-7(0) 6-4 6-4#318Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#366Petr Brunclik

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#359Arthur Nagel

7-6(7) 6-3#746Maximilian Marterer

7-6(8) 6-3—David Fix

6-4 6-3#858Calvin Mueller

6-1 6-2#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-7(5) 6-3 6-1#824Oskari Paldanius

Daniel De Jonge

9W 6L

6-4 7-6(4)—Luca Sanchez

6-1 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-3 6-2#415Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-3#811Filippo Moroni

6-1 6-4#854Pawel Juszczak

6-0 6-0—Barney Fitzpatrick

6-0 4-6 7-5#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-2—Valentin Gonzalez-Galino

6-4 7-6(6)#826Conor Gannon

6-4 6-3—Roan Jones

6-2 6-4—Daniel Borisov

6-2 6-3—Milosz Sroka

4-6 6-4 6-3#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1#248Yi Zhou

7-6(6) 6-4#449Emile Hudd

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniel MasurMasur

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Daniel De JongeJongeDJ

Daniel Masur carries the stronger recent form — Daniel De Jonge's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1560.2%+1.6pp58.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1574.0%—73.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1551.7%+4.3pp47.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.1—4.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.41.8 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.1%+3.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1540.6%+13.1pp53.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1562.5%+7.1pp55.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.0%—51.3%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

60.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp58.6%

74.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—73.5%

51.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.3pp47.4%

5.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15—4.9

2.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.8 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

40.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+13.1pp53.7%

62.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.1pp55.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—51.3%