FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Masur #397Germany2Adrien Gobat #875France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Sun 13 Sept 2026, 17:40 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Masur · 478 places

Daniel Masur

Germany

Masur reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 176 in March 2022. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface; current match data lists him at No. 397.

Current ranking: #397
Peak ranking: #176 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Adrien Gobat

France

Gobat reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 532 on 4 March 2024. No preferred surface was listed in the checked player profile data.

Current ranking: #875
Peak ranking: #532 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Masur's ranking and recent form give him a clear edge, but the odds at 1.20 offer no value.

The match could be competitive, with a lean towards over 21.5 total games and a possible tiebreak, though confidence is low.

Context

Masur, 378th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has played mostly Challenger and ITF events this season.
Masur's last five hard-court matches include wins over Jurij Rodionov and Dan Added, while Gobat's recent indoor hard results include losses to Nicolas Ifi and Florian Broska. This gives Masur a slight edge in current form on this surface, though the sample is small.
- Masur's last 5 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 2 losses (recentForm).
- Gobat's last 4 indoor hard matches: 1 win, 3 losses (recentForm).
This is a first-round ATP Challenger 100 qualifying match at Rennes, played on indoor hard courts.
The match is listed on Court Colette Besson, confirming indoor hard conditions. That surface typically rewards the stronger server and first-strike player, which aligns with Masur's recent hard-court form.
- The current match listing identifies Rennes 2026 as ATP Challenger 100 qualifying, first round, at Court Colette Besson.
- The event information lists Rennes as an indoor hard-court tournament.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:58 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple Rennes 2026 match pageen.tennistemple.com · 13 Sep 2026Tennis.com Rennes order of playwww.tennis.com · 13 Sep 2026
Gobat, ranked 875th, has a limited schedule and has not played consistently this year.
After a long break, Gobat returned on September 9 and lost in three sets to Nicolas Ifi. That lack of recent match play could leave him less sharp than Masur, who has played regularly through August and September.
- Gobat's recentForm shows only one match since February 2026 (loss on 2026-09-09).
- Masur has played 8 matches since August 19, 2026.
Masur has more experience at Challenger level and has been ranked inside the top 400 this season.
The ranking gap reflects a difference in level and consistency. Masur has competed against higher-ranked opponents recently, while Gobat has mostly faced players outside the top 500.
- Masur ranking: 378; Gobat ranking: 875.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniel Masur

1.20fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Masur's superior ranking and recent form give him an edge, but the odds heavily favor him beyond the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Masur's superior ranking, recent form, and indoor hard surface fit give him a clear edge over Gobat.
- Masur last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Gobat 7-8 (46.7%)
- Masur ranking 378 vs Gobat 875
- Masur last15 Hard record 3-2 (60%), Gobat I.hard 5-5 (50%)
- Masur career win% 57.2% vs Gobat 57.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniel MasurEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate serve and return stats, suggesting a competitive match with a decent chance of exceeding 21.5 games.
- Masur last15 average 101.7 minutes per match, Gobat 103.9
- Masur last15 games won 50.6%, Gobat 48.5%
- Both players have similar return points won (36.6% vs 38.3%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set could be tight given both players' solid serving and Masur's high break point save rate.
- Masur last15 Hard first serve points won 70.2%, Gobat I.hard 68.9%
- Both players have similar first serve percentages (63.1% vs 63.1%)
- Masur last15 Hard break points saved 65.7%, Gobat I.hard 48.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Masur's strong first-set conversion rate and better serve metrics suggest he is likely to take the opening set.
- Masur first set win conversion 82% career
- Masur last15 first serve points won 73.7% vs Gobat 68.1%
- Masur last15 Hard first serve points won 70.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniel MasurEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 5.5 total double faults.
- Masur last15 double faults per match 2.5, Gobat 3.3
- Masur last15 Hard double faults per match 2.6
- Gobat last15 I.hard double faults per match 3.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Daniel Masur

9W 6L

7-6(2) 7-5#152Mark Lajal 2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#199Ugo Blanchet

5-7 6-3 6-1#143Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-4#281Dan Added

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#488Luca Potenza

7-6(3) 6-1#306Facundo Mena

6-7(0) 6-4 6-4#318Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#366Petr Brunclik

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#359Arthur Nagel

7-6(7) 6-3#746Maximilian Marterer

7-6(8) 6-3—David Fix

6-4 6-3#858Calvin Mueller

6-1 6-2#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-7(5) 6-3 6-1#824Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-4#242Jay Clarke

Adrien Gobat

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-2—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 7-6(3)#298Florian Broska

4-6 7-5 6-1#520Tibo Colson

6-4 6-4#359Arthur Nagel

6-3 7-5#829Tom Zeuch

6-4 7-6(4)#874Marcus Walters

6-4 7-5#227Henry Searle

6-3 6-4#359Arthur Nagel

6-4 6-4—Andrea M'Chich

6-4 6-2—Marc Antoine Gaillard

6-2 6-1#470Cannon Kingsley

6-4 7-6(5)—Antonin Witz

3-6 6-4 6-1#812Finn Murgett

6-3 4-6 6-1#230Cezar Cretu

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#443Matthew William Donald

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniel MasurMasur

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Adrien GobatGobatAG

Daniel Masur carries the stronger recent form — Adrien Gobat's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1560.0%+3.1pp63.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.7%+5.6pp68.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.6%+2.5pp48.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.9+2.02.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.50.8 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1536.6%+1.7pp38.3%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1542.0%—41.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1559.5%+7.9pp51.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.3%+1.2pp49.1%

Serve · 4–1

60.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.1pp63.1%

73.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.6pp68.1%

50.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp48.1%

4.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.02.9

2.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

36.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp38.3%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

42.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15—41.8%

59.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.9pp51.6%

Points · 1–0

50.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.2pp49.1%