Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Arthur Weber #405France2Yuta Shimizu #393Japan0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Sat 12 Sept 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYuta Shimizu · 12 places

Arthur Weber

France

Weber, 34, is the left-hander in this matchup. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 303 in October 2023, and hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #303 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Weber's eight-match winning streak and superior return game make him the value play against Shimizu, who struggles on return and has a high double fault rate.

Back Weber on the moneyline and first set, while avoiding Shimizu at short odds. Other markets are too close to call.

Context

Weber, 405th, is a left-hander who has built his 2026 record almost entirely on hard courts, winning 18 of 29 matches on the surface this year.
His recent 11-4 run includes eight straight wins, but only one opponent ranked inside the top 400. Shimizu's 9-6 record over the same window came against several players ranked above him, including wins over No. 123 Dane Sweeny and No. 197 Liam Broady. That difference in opponent quality makes Shimizu's form more battle-tested, even though Weber's raw win rate is higher.
- Weber's last 15 matches: 11-4 record, with 8 consecutive wins in September.
- Weber's recent opponents: only one ranked inside top 400 (Florent Bax, No. 303, loss).
- Shimizu's last 15 matches: 9-6 record, including wins over No. 123 Dane Sweeny and No. 197 Liam Broady.
Shimizu, 396th, is a left-hander with a powerful serve that has produced 1,286 career aces.
His first serve is effective when it lands, but he misses too many first serves and gives away free points with double faults. Weber's first-serve percentage is higher at 62.9%, but he wins fewer points on it (70.3%) and averages only 1.4 aces per match. If Shimizu can improve his first-serve consistency, he could control more points, but his current error rate may hand Weber extra opportunities.
- Shimizu last 15: 5.5 aces per match, 71.9% first-serve points won, 59.2% first-serve in, 3.4 double faults per match.
- Weber last 15: 1.4 aces per match, 70.3% first-serve points won, 62.9% first-serve in, 1.1 double faults per match.
The two players met once before, in a Challenger event in 2024.
Shimizu took the first and third sets, while Weber dominated the second. That match was on hard court, the same surface as this semi-final. The result suggests Shimizu has a slight edge in this matchup, but the sample is small and both players have evolved since then.
- 2024-09-24: Shimizu def. Weber 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 on hard court.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Weber's superior recent form and return game give him a clear edge on hard court.
- Arthur Weber last 15: 11-4 record, 59.6% games won, 46.9% return points won
- Yuta Shimizu last 15: 9-6 record, 51.7% games won, 38.8% return points won
- Weber has won 8 straight matches, including 6-0 6-0 and 6-0 6-0 in this tournament
- Shimizu needed three sets in his last match and has a 3.4 double faults per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's tendency for longer matches and Weber's solid return game could push total games over.
- Weber average match duration last 15: 92.4 minutes
- Shimizu average match duration last 15: 116.8 minutes
- Shimizu's last match went to 37 games
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 52-60%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Weber's strong first-set record and current momentum make him likely to start fast.
- Weber first set win conversion career: 92%
- Weber has won first set in 7 of last 8 matches
- Shimizu first set win conversion career: 86%
- Weber first serve points won last 15: 70.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's high ace count should push the combined total over the line.
- Shimizu averages 5.5 aces per match in last 15
- Weber averages 1.4 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 6.9
- Shimizu has 83 aces in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's high double fault rate makes the over on combined double faults likely.
- Shimizu averages 3.4 double faults per match in last 15
- Weber averages 1.1 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.5
- Shimizu has 51 double faults in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 1-6 6-3Arthur Weber#405vYuta Shimizu#396Sep 24, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Arthur Weber

11W 4L

7-6(5) 6-2#560Filip Peliwo

6-0 6-0#516Tai Sach

6-0 6-0—Tran Quoc Cuong

7-5 7-6(5)#460Moerani Bouzige

6-1 6-2#1330Thantub Suksumrarn

6-2 7-5#890Thanapet Chanta

6-3 6-0#1229Jordan Hasson

6-4 6-3—Veerawit Kamput

7-5 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-2#628Tsung-Hao Huang

6-3 6-4#303Florent Bax

2-6 6-1 6-3#563Fausto Tabacco

6-3 6-2—Louis Larue

6-2 6-0#883Nicolas Jadoun

6-3 3-6 6-3#812Finn Murgett

Yuta Shimizu

9W 6L

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#518Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#486Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1—Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#327Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#299Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#197Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#403Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#651Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#173Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#400Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#620Dan Martin

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#307Murphy Cassone

7-5 7-5#123Dane Sweeny

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AWArthur WeberWeber

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Arthur Weber carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Shimizu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.9%+3.7pp59.2%

1st Serve Won70.3%+1.6pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+1.3pp50.3%

Aces / Match1.4+4.15.5

Double Faults / Match1.12.3 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.9%+8.1pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.0%+11.8pp38.2%

Break Pts Saved46.9%+18.8pp65.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.8%+3.9pp50.9%

Serve · 3–2

62.9%1st Serve In+3.7pp59.2%

70.3%1st Serve Won+1.6pp71.9%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp50.3%

1.4Aces / Match+4.15.5

1.1Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

46.9%Return Pts Won+8.1pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

50.0%Break Pts Converted+11.8pp38.2%

46.9%Break Pts Saved+18.8pp65.7%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won+3.9pp50.9%