Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Peliwo #555Canada0Arthur Weber #405France2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Fri 11 Sept 2026, 02:40 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Weber · 150 places

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #555
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Arthur Weber

France

Weber, 34, is the left-hander in this matchup. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 303 in October 2023, and hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #303 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Arthur Weber is a heavy favorite based on superior recent form, return stats, and a straight-sets H2H win.

The best betting angles are Weber 2-0 in set betting and Weber -3.5 games, as the moneyline offers little value.

Context

Weber, 405th, is a left-hander who has won 65.4% of his career matches and is comfortable on hard courts.
Weber's recent form is much stronger than Peliwo's. He has won 11 of 15 matches, including two 6-0 6-0 wins this week, while Peliwo has lost to lower-ranked opponents. This gap suggests Weber is more likely to control the match.
- Weber's last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Peliwo's last 15 record: 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Weber won his last two matches 6-0 6-0; Peliwo needed three sets in his last match.
Weber's return points won percentage is 47.1% over his last 15 matches, a strong number for a Challenger player.
Peliwo's serve is vulnerable: he wins only 69.4% of first-serve points and 48.4% of second-serve points. Weber's return ability could lead to many break chances, especially on Peliwo's second serve.
- Weber return points won: 47.1% (410/870).
- Peliwo return points won: 36.7% (373/1015).
- Peliwo second-serve points won: 48.4%.
The two players met once before, in August 2023, on hard court.
Weber won that match comfortably, and his game has improved since then. Peliwo has not shown a clear answer to Weber's left-handed style, which could matter again.
- H2H: Weber won 6-3 6-3 on 2023-08-21.
- Surface: Hard, same as this match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Arthur Weber

1.15fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Weber's superior recent form, return game, and prior straight-sets H2H win on hard make him the clear favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Weber's superior recent form, return game, and prior straight-sets H2H win on hard make him the clear favorite.
- Weber last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Peliwo 7-8 (46.7%)
- Weber last 15 hard-court games won 60.8%, Peliwo 47.0%
- Weber return points won 47.1% vs Peliwo 36.7% in last 15
- H2H: Weber won 6-3 6-3 on hard in Aug 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's dominant recent scorelines and Peliwo's inconsistent form suggest a relatively quick match under the total.
- Weber last 15 average games per match: 18.2 (273/15)
- Peliwo last 15 average games per match: 20.9 (314/15)
- Weber has won 6 of last 7 matches in straight sets, often with lopsided scores
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's recent blowout wins and Peliwo's struggles suggest Weber can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Weber last 15 average games won margin: +6.2 per match
- Peliwo last 15 average games lost margin: -1.1 per match
- Weber won 6-0 6-0 in last two matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonArthur Weber -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's strong first-set record and overall set dominance give him a clear edge in the opener.
- Weber first set win conversion career 92%, Peliwo 84%
- Weber last 15 sets won 71.9%, Peliwo 48.6%
- Weber has won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's straight-set dominance and Peliwo's vulnerability to lopsided losses support a 2-0 outcome.
- Weber won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Peliwo lost 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Weber's last two matches were 6-0 6-0 wins
BetBugs · Set BettingwonArthur Weber 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making a low total aces line likely.
- Weber last 15 aces per match 1.3
- Peliwo last 15 aces per match 3.3
- Combined expected aces around 4-5 per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Double fault rates are moderate, but the under is favored given Weber's low count.
- Weber last 15 double faults per match 1.1
- Peliwo last 15 double faults per match 3.0
- Combined expected double faults around 4 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's dominance reduces the likelihood of tight sets, though tiebreaks remain possible.
- Weber last 15 sets won 71.9%, often by comfortable margins
- Peliwo has played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Weber has played 2 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-3Filip Peliwo#560vArthur Weber#405Aug 21, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Filip Peliwo

7W 8L

7-6(2) 6-3#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#896Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-3#408Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(3)#898Sheng Tang

3-6 6-2 6-4#755Joshua Charlton

6-1 6-1#237Charles Broom

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#621Nicolas Tepmahc

6-4 6-2#891Giulio Perego

6-3 6-4#1765Luc Fomba

6-1 6-1—Filip Kiryllo

6-1 3-6 6-3#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-3 6-0#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 6-3#889Zsombor Velcz

6-4 6-2—Andreas Scott

4-6 6-1 6-3#890Chirag Duhan

Arthur Weber

11W 4L

6-0 6-0#516Tai Sach

6-0 6-0—Tran Quoc Cuong

7-5 7-6(5)#460Moerani Bouzige

6-1 6-2#1330Thantub Suksumrarn

6-2 7-5#890Thanapet Chanta

6-3 6-0#1229Jordan Hasson

6-4 6-3—Veerawit Kamput

7-5 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-2#628Tsung-Hao Huang

6-3 6-4#303Florent Bax

2-6 6-1 6-3#563Fausto Tabacco

6-3 6-2—Louis Larue

6-2 6-0#883Nicolas Jadoun

6-3 3-6 6-3#812Finn Murgett

6-2 6-0—Rocco Valente

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFilip PeliwoPeliwo

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Arthur WeberWeberAW

Arthur Weber carries the stronger recent form — Filip Peliwo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In60.4%+5.1pp65.5%

1st Serve Won69.4%+2.0pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won48.4%+5.1pp53.5%

Aces / Match3.3+2.01.3

Double Faults / Match3.01.9 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.7%+10.4pp47.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted31.9%+21.3pp53.2%

Break Pts Saved61.4%+13.1pp48.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.9%+6.8pp55.7%

Serve · 1–4

60.4%1st Serve In+5.1pp65.5%

69.4%1st Serve Won+2.0pp71.4%

48.4%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp53.5%

3.3Aces / Match+2.01.3

3.0Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won+10.4pp47.1%

Pressure · 1–1

31.9%Break Pts Converted+21.3pp53.2%

61.4%Break Pts Saved+13.1pp48.3%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won+6.8pp55.7%