Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Hiroki Moriya #518Japan1Yuta Shimizu #393Japan2

Sets 7-5 · 5-7 · 6-7Fri 11 Sept 2026, 02:40 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYuta Shimizu · 125 places

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #518
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Shimizu is favored but overpriced at 1.29, with the model giving him only a 55% chance.

The match is expected to be competitive, making over 21.5 total games a better betting angle. Moriya's H2H edge and similar recent form add uncertainty.

Context

Shimizu, 27, is a left-hander ranked 396 and has a career win rate of 61.6%, while Moriya, 35, is ranked 518 and has a 52.9% career win rate.
Shimizu's last-15 record is 8-7 compared to Moriya's 7-8, and Shimizu wins 71.7% of first-serve points versus Moriya's 68.0%. Shimizu also averages 5.1 aces per match to Moriya's 2.3, giving him more free points. However, Moriya's return points won (39.7%) is slightly better than Shimizu's (38.8%), so the edge is not overwhelming.
- Shimizu last 15: 8-7 record, 71.7% first-serve points won, 5.1 aces per match.
- Moriya last 15: 7-8 record, 68.0% first-serve points won, 2.3 aces per match.
- Moriya's return points won is 39.7%, slightly above Shimizu's 38.8%.
The two Japanese players have met once before, in a 2022 Challenger event.
Moriya dominated that match with a 53% return points won and 71% break point conversion, while Shimizu managed only 34% return points won. However, both players have changed since then, and Shimizu's recent serve numbers are stronger, so the historical result is only a mild indicator.
- 2022-10-04: Moriya def. Shimizu 6-1 6-3 on hard court.
- In that match, Moriya won 53% of return points and converted 71% of break points.
- Shimizu won only 34% of return points and 20% of break points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yuta Shimizu

1.29fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Shimizu's stronger recent serve numbers and slightly better recent record give him a modest edge on hard court.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Shimizu's stronger recent serve numbers and slightly better recent record give him a modest edge on hard court.
- Yuta Shimizu last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Hiroki Moriya 7-8 (46.7%)
- Shimizu last 15 first serve points won 71.7% vs Moriya 68.0%
- Shimizu last 15 second serve points won 51.7% vs Moriya 49.2%
- Shimizu ranking 396 vs Moriya 518
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYuta ShimizuEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are evenly matched and their recent matches have been competitive, suggesting a longer total games count.
- Moriya last 15 average match duration 106.8 minutes
- Shimizu last 15 average match duration 114.8 minutes
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The close games won percentages and competitive H2H suggest the first set could be tight.
- Moriya last 15 games won 50.3%
- Shimizu last 15 games won 51.5%
- H2H 2022 match had 16 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's slightly better first-serve effectiveness supports a marginal edge in the opening set.
- Shimizu first set win conversion career 86% vs Moriya 85%
- Shimizu last 15 first serve points won 71.7%
- Moriya last 15 first serve points won 68.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYuta ShimizuEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's higher ace rate pushes the combined total near the line, making over 7.5 a reasonable bet.
- Shimizu last 15 aces per match 5.1
- Moriya last 15 aces per match 2.3
- Combined average aces per match 7.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 6.5 a coin flip.
- Moriya last 15 double faults per match 3.4
- Shimizu last 15 double faults per match 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match 6.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-3Hiroki Moriya#518vYuta Shimizu#396Oct 4, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Hiroki Moriya

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(4)#489Maximus Jones 4-6 6-1 6-2#506Dominik Palan

6-1 7-6(2)#486Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#617S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#896Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-2#370Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#821Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-0#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-3 7-6(9)#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-3#255Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-1#712Thomas Fancutt

6-3 5-7 6-1#678Andreja Petrovic

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#899Jason Jung

6-4 7-6(1)#376Alex Martinez

4-6 6-2 6-3#344Edward Winter

Yuta Shimizu

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#486Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1—Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#327Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#299Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#197Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#403Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#651Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#173Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#400Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#620Dan Martin

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#307Murphy Cassone

7-5 7-5#123Dane Sweeny

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#179Bernard Tomic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHiroki MoriyaMoriya

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Yuta Shimizu carries the stronger recent form — Hiroki Moriya's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.9%—59.6%

1st Serve Won68.0%+3.7pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won49.2%+2.5pp51.7%

Aces / Match2.3+2.85.1

Double Faults / Match3.40.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+0.9pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.4%+9.0pp40.4%

Break Pts Saved57.8%+6.9pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.2pp51.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

58.9%1st Serve In—59.6%

68.0%1st Serve Won+3.7pp71.7%

49.2%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp51.7%

2.3Aces / Match+2.85.1

3.4Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+0.9pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

49.4%Break Pts Converted+9.0pp40.4%

57.8%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.2pp51.1%