Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Kasidit Samrej #406Thailand0Yuta Shimizu #393Japan2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Wed 9 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYuta Shimizu · 13 places

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied match data was limited. Structured data identifies him as a 191 cm right-hander ranked No. 406.

Current ranking: #406
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Samrej's superior recent form and quality wins make him a moderate favorite over Shimizu.

The match is expected to be lengthy with over 21.5 total games and likely a tiebreak. Best betting angle is Samrej to win at 2.60 odds, offering a 19.5-point edge.

Context

Samrej, 486th, is a right-hander from Thailand who has played almost exclusively on hard courts this season. Shimizu, 396th, is a left-hander from Japan with a similar hard-court focus.
Samrej's last five matches show four wins, including victories over Bernard Tomic and Chun Hsin Tseng, while Shimizu has only two wins in his last five, with losses to lower-ranked players. This suggests Samrej enters with better current rhythm, though Shimizu's overall 15-match sample is only slightly weaker.
- Samrej's last 15 record: 9-6 (60%), with wins over Tomic (179), Tseng (221), and Moriya (518).
- Shimizu's last 15 record: 8-7 (53.3%), with recent losses to Matusevich (327) and Monday (299).
- Samrej's last 5: W-W-W-L-W; Shimizu's last 5: W-L-L-W-L.
The two players met once before, in January 2020 at a Challenger event, when Shimizu was ranked higher and won in straight sets.
That result gives Shimizu a small psychological edge, but it is too old to be a reliable guide for this match. Samrej's current form and ranking trajectory suggest the gap has narrowed, so the H2H should be treated as background rather than a decisive factor.
- H2H: Shimizu leads 1-0, winning 6-4 6-4 on hard court in 2020.
- Both players were ranked outside the top 300 at the time, and their rankings have since fluctuated.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Samrej's stronger recent form and higher-quality wins give him a moderate edge over Shimizu.
- Samrej last 15: 9-6 record, 60% sets won, 51.8% games won on hard
- Shimizu last 15: 8-7 record, 54.3% sets won, 51.2% games won on hard
- Samrej has won 5 of last 6 matches, including wins over Tseng (221) and Tomic (179)
- Shimizu lost 3 of last 5 matches, with losses to Matusevich (327) and Monday (299)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKasidit SamrejEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, supporting a higher total.
- Samrej last 15 average games per match: 22.3
- Shimizu last 15 average games per match: 25.3
- Combined average games per match: 23.8
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average close to 10 games, making over 9.5 likely.
- Samrej last 15 first set average games: 9.7
- Shimizu last 15 first set average games: 10.1
- Combined first set average: 9.9 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's recent first-set dominance and overall form make him slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Samrej first set win conversion career: 85%
- Shimizu first set win conversion career: 86%
- Samrej won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
- Shimizu won first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKasidit SamrejEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages exceed 10, supporting over 9.5 total aces.
- Samrej last 15 aces per match: 5.9
- Shimizu last 15 aces per match: 4.5
- Combined average aces per match: 10.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's high double fault rate pushes combined average above 9.
- Samrej last 15 double faults per match: 6.1
- Shimizu last 15 double faults per match: 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 9.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently play tiebreaks, making a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Samrej last 15: 7 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Shimizu last 15: 9 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Combined tiebreak rate: 53% of matches have at least one tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-4Kasidit Samrej#486vYuta Shimizu#396Jan 10, 2020

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kasidit Samrej

9W 6L

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#569Sidharth Rawat 6-3 6-1#275Ilia Simakin 6-3 7-6(1)#221Chun Hsin Tseng 6-4 7-6(4)#513Enzo Aguiard 7-5 7-6(3)#179Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#518Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 6-2—Yan Cheng Chen

6-3 6-2—Kai-I Wang

6-4 7-6(5)#664Yuki Mochizuki

6-2 3-6 6-1#567Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-4#295Sergey Fomin

5-7 6-0 6-4#539Kokoro Isomura

3-6 7-5 6-3#881Egor Pleshivtsev

6-4 2-6 6-3#733Grigory Shebekin

Yuta Shimizu

8W 7L

6-1 6-1—Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#327Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#299Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#197Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#403Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#651Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#173Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#400Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#620Dan Martin

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#307Murphy Cassone

7-5 7-5#123Dane Sweeny

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#179Bernard Tomic

7-6(8) 7-6(5)#314Andres Martin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKasidit SamrejSamrej

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Kasidit Samrej carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Shimizu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.8%—60.4%

1st Serve Won73.1%+2.5pp70.6%

2nd Serve Won43.8%+6.7pp50.5%

Aces / Match5.9+1.44.5

Double Faults / Match6.13.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.3%+2.0pp39.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.8%+2.5pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved71.3%+8.0pp63.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—50.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.8%1st Serve In—60.4%

73.1%1st Serve Won+2.5pp70.6%

43.8%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp50.5%

5.9Aces / Match+1.44.5

6.1Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won+2.0pp39.3%

Pressure · 2–0

41.8%Break Pts Converted+2.5pp39.3%

71.3%Break Pts Saved+8.0pp63.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—50.9%