Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Kasidit Samrej #406Thailand2Sidharth Rawat #536India1

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 6-2Tue 8 Sept 2026, 04:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKasidit Samrej · 130 places

Kasidit Samrej

Thailand

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied match data was limited. Structured data identifies him as a 191 cm right-hander ranked No. 406.

Current ranking: #406
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Sidharth Rawat

India

ITF lists Rawat’s preferred surface as hard court. His career-best ATP singles ranking was No. 430 in January 2019.

Current ranking: #536
Peak ranking: #430 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Samrej is the clear favorite with superior form, ranking, and a dominant H2H win, but the moneyline odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are the over on total aces (8.5) and total double faults (6.5), driven by Samrej's high counts. Expect a straight-set win for Samrej, but avoid the 2-0 set betting market due to his tendency to drop sets.

Context

Samrej, 486th, is a 191cm right-hander from Thailand. Rawat, 569th, is a 175cm right-hander from India.
Samrej's recent hard-court record is 9-6, while Rawat's is 6-9. Samrej also won their only meeting this year 6-3 6-2. Rawat's recent losses include defeats to players ranked outside the top 300, suggesting he may struggle against Samrej's current level.
- Samrej's last 15 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 6 losses.
- Rawat's last 15 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 9 losses.
- Head-to-head on 2026-05-01: Samrej beat Rawat 6-3 6-2.
Samrej's height gives him a natural serving advantage. Rawat relies more on consistency than power.
Samrej's first serve is more effective, and he saves break points at a higher rate (69.6% vs 53.5%). Rawat's lower first-serve percentage (56.9%) could give Samrej more opportunities to attack.
- Samrej: 6.3 aces per match, 73.5% first-serve points won.
- Rawat: 3.1 aces per match, 66.7% first-serve points won.
- Samrej saves 69.6% of break points; Rawat saves 53.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kasidit Samrej

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Samrej's superior recent form, ranking, and dominant H2H win give him a clear edge, but the odds are slightly below the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kasidit Samrej

1.36fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Samrej's stronger serve and recent form make him likely to take the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kasidit Samrej

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Samrej's superior break point saving and overall consistency should carry him through set 2.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Samrej has superior recent form, ranking, and a dominant recent H2H win, giving him a clear edge.
- Last 15: Samrej 9-6 (60%), Rawat 6-9 (40%)
- Samrej won H2H on hard 6-3 6-2 in May 2026
- Samrej ranking 486 vs Rawat 569
- Samrej last 5: 4-1, Rawat last 5: 2-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKasidit SamrejEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Samrej's edge, both players' recent matches often exceed 21.5 total games.
- Samrej last 15 average games per match: 22.7
- Rawat last 15 average games per match: 19.5
- Both players have had several close sets recently
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players tend to be competitive, often exceeding 9.5 games.
- Samrej last 15 first set average games: 9.8
- Rawat last 15 first set average games: 9.1
- Both players have had tiebreaks and 7-5 sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets could be close if Rawat improves his serve, but Samrej remains favored.
- Samrej last 15 second set average games: 9.9
- Rawat last 15 second set average games: 8.9
- Rawat's second serve points won is higher, potentially extending sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Samrej's stronger serve and recent form make him likely to take the opening set.
- Samrej first set win conversion 85% career
- Rawat first set win conversion 87% career
- Samrej last 15 first serve points won 73.5% vs Rawat 66.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKasidit SamrejEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Samrej's superior break point saving and overall consistency should carry him through set 2.
- Samrej last 15 second serve points won 43.8% vs Rawat 49.5%
- Samrej break points saved 69.6% vs Rawat 53.5%
- Samrej won H2H in straight sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKasidit SamrejEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's dominance and Rawat's recent struggles suggest a straight-set victory.
- Samrej last 15 straight-set wins: 7 of 9 wins
- Rawat last 15 straight-set losses: 8 of 9 losses
- H2H in 2026 was straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's high ace count alone nearly covers the line, and Rawat adds a few more.
- Samrej last 15 aces per match: 6.3
- Rawat last 15 aces per match: 3.1
- Combined average aces per match: 9.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samrej's high double fault rate pushes the combined total over the line.
- Samrej last 15 double faults per match: 6.1
- Rawat last 15 double faults per match: 1.2
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-3 6-2Kasidit Samrej#486vSidharth Rawat#569May 1, 2026

L4-6 6-1 6-3Kasidit Samrej#486vSidharth Rawat#569May 30, 2019

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kasidit Samrej

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#275Ilia Simakin 6-3 7-6(1)#221Chun Hsin Tseng 6-4 7-6(4)#513Enzo Aguiard 7-5 7-6(3)#179Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#518Hiroki Moriya

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 6-2—Yan Cheng Chen

6-3 6-2—Kai-I Wang

6-4 7-6(5)#664Yuki Mochizuki

6-2 3-6 6-1#567Hyeon Chung

6-1 6-4#295Sergey Fomin

5-7 6-0 6-4#539Kokoro Isomura

3-6 7-5 6-3#881Egor Pleshivtsev

6-4 2-6 6-3#733Grigory Shebekin

6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(3)—Riku Takahata

Sidharth Rawat

6W 9L

6-2 6-4#300Mert Alkaya

7-5 7-6(4)#540Shunsuke Mitsui

6-3 6-3#725Aleksandre Bakshi

6-4 6-2#552Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-2#669Yaroslav Demin

6-3 6-1#259Max Basing

6-3 6-2#344Edward Winter

6-3 6-3#729Orel Kimhi

6-3 6-1#345Ognjen Milic

7-6(4) 6-2#408Omar Jasika

6-4 7-6(3)#489Maximus Jones

3-6 6-4 7-5#720Manish Sureshkumar

6-3 6-2#486Kasidit Samrej

6-2 6-3#694Shinji Hazawa

7-5 6-2#679Isaac Becroft

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKasidit SamrejSamrej

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Sidharth RawatRawatSR

Kasidit Samrej carries the stronger recent form — Sidharth Rawat's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.4%+3.5pp56.9%

1st Serve Won73.5%+6.8pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won43.8%+5.7pp49.5%

Aces / Match6.3+3.23.1

Double Faults / Match6.14.9 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.6%+2.0pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted40.0%+3.0pp37.0%

Break Pts Saved69.6%+16.1pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.1%+1.6pp48.5%

Serve · 3–2

60.4%1st Serve In+3.5pp56.9%

73.5%1st Serve Won+6.8pp66.7%

43.8%2nd Serve Won+5.7pp49.5%

6.3Aces / Match+3.23.1

6.1Double Faults / Match4.9 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

36.6%Return Pts Won+2.0pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

40.0%Break Pts Converted+3.0pp37.0%

69.6%Break Pts Saved+16.1pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

50.1%Total Pts Won+1.6pp48.5%