Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Moise Kouame #213France1Kenta Miyoshi #495Japan2

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 5-7Tue 8 Sept 2026, 05:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoise Kouame · 282 places

Moise Kouame

France

French right-hander born in March 2009. The ITF lists a 25-13 professional record in 2026, with his stronger recorded win rate on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #211 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

Reliable public profile details beyond the supplied ranking and playing style were limited in the requested search. No current injury or availability report surfaced for 17 July–16 August 2026.

Current ranking: #495
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 06:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Miyoshi's superior recent form, hard-court record, and return game make him the clear favorite over Kouame.

Back Miyoshi on the moneyline and set 1 winner for value. Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 games, but avoid tiebreak and total sets markets.

Context

Miyoshi, 24, is ranked 467 and has built his 2026 season on hard courts with a 27-10 record. Kouame, 20, is ranked 200 but has been inconsistent across surfaces this year.
Miyoshi's last-15 hard-court sample shows a 73.3% win rate and a 57.5% games-won percentage, while Kouame's last-15 overall record is 6-9 with a 49.9% games-won rate. On hard, Kouame has won only 2 of 5 matches and his return points won is 40.6%, below Miyoshi's 43.9%. This suggests Miyoshi enters with a clear recent-form edge, though Kouame's higher ranking and a win over No. 59 Burruchaga in August show he can raise his level.
- Miyoshi last 15 overall: 11-4 record, 57.5% games won, 43.9% return points won.
- Kouame last 15 overall: 6-9 record, 49.9% games won, 38.8% return points won.
- Kouame last 5 on hard: 2-3, including losses to Basavareddy and Echargui.
- Miyoshi last 5 on hard: 3-2, with wins over Schwaerzler and Pascual Ferra.
Kouame's serve has been a relative weakness: he wins 68.8% of first-serve points and 49.1% of second-serve points in his last 15 matches. Miyoshi wins 76.6% and 55.1% respectively.
Miyoshi's stronger serve and return numbers suggest he can apply more pressure on Kouame's service games. Kouame's break point save rate is 63.9% compared to Miyoshi's 56.8%, but Miyoshi's higher break point conversion rate (44.5% vs 38.1%) may offset that. This points to a potential edge for Miyoshi in key moments, though Kouame's ability to save break points could keep him competitive.
- Kouame first-serve points won: 68.8%; Miyoshi: 76.6%.
- Kouame return points won: 38.8%; Miyoshi: 43.9%.
- Kouame break points saved: 63.9%; Miyoshi: 56.8%.
- Kouame break points converted: 38.1%; Miyoshi: 44.5%.
Kouame, 17, is the No. 1 seed in this Phan Thiet III ATP 50 event and has just entered the top 200 for the first time.
This is his opening match of an Asian swing, so he arrives with a ranking milestone but no recent match rhythm in this specific event.
- The 6 September tournament preview identifies this as Kouame's first event of an Asian swing and his opening match with Miyoshi.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 06:12 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipewww.lequipe.fr · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Miyoshi's superior recent form and hard-court return profile give him a clear edge over Kouame's weaker recent results.
- Miyoshi last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Kouame 6-9 (40%)
- Miyoshi last 15 total points won 54.7% vs Kouame 49.8%
- Miyoshi last 15 return points won 43.9% vs Kouame 38.8%
- Miyoshi 2026 hard court record 27-10, Kouame 3-4
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's competitive sets and longer match durations suggest a closer contest with more games.
- Kouame last 15 average duration 136.6 minutes, Miyoshi 95.9 minutes
- Kouame last 15 games won 49.9%, Miyoshi 57.5%
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Miyoshi's superior recent form and point dominance support a handicap cover.
- Miyoshi last 15 games won 57.5%, Kouame 49.9%
- Miyoshi last 15 total points won 54.7%, Kouame 49.8%
- Miyoshi has a stronger recent hard-court record
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKenta Miyoshi -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' serve percentages and recent set scores.
- Kouame last 15 first set average games around 9.8
- Miyoshi last 15 first set average games around 9.3
- Both players have similar first serve percentages around 54-59%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Miyoshi's stronger first-serve effectiveness and break conversion should help him take the opening set.
- Miyoshi last 15 first set win rate implied by 71.4% sets won
- Kouame last 15 first serve points won 68.8% vs Miyoshi 76.6%
- Miyoshi last 15 break points converted 44.5% vs Kouame 38.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup could lead to a deciding set.
- Kouame last 15 deciding set win percentage 60%
- Miyoshi last 15 deciding set win percentage 51%
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total above 8.5 is likely in a competitive match.
- Kouame last 15 aces per match 5.2, Miyoshi 5.1
- Combined average aces per match 10.3
- Both players have similar ace rates on hard courts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kouame's high double fault rate should push the combined total over 6.5.
- Kouame last 15 double faults per match 5.7, Miyoshi 1.7
- Combined average double faults per match 7.4
- Kouame's high double fault rate is a key factor
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The serve effectiveness of both players increases the chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Kouame career tiebreak win percentage 52%, Miyoshi 43%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- Kouame last 15 first serve points won 68.8%, Miyoshi 76.6%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Kenta Miyoshi has been highly reliable when projected to win

Kenta Miyoshi has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win projections, an 80% success rate. The average estimated probability in those matches was 63%, with an expected 3.2 fulfilled predictions, so he has outperformed expectation. His only miss came at a 55% probability, while his successful projections averaged 65%.

Recent evidence for Kenta Miyoshi5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi1-2#507Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·55%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi1-2#507Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Kenta Miyoshi to win

55%probability

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine won

Missed

30 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#224Dan Added1-2#602Kenta Miyoshi

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·58%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#224Dan Added1-2#602Kenta Miyoshi

Kenta Miyoshi to win

58%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

28 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi2-0#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi2-0#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

Kenta Miyoshi to win

62%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

13 Jul·Granby - Canada

#508Karl Poling1-2#817Kenta Miyoshi

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·68%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#508Karl Poling1-2#817Kenta Miyoshi

Kenta Miyoshi to win

68%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

13 Jul·Granby - Canada

#764Kenta Miyoshi2-0#621Bruno Kuzuhara

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#764Kenta Miyoshi2-0#621Bruno Kuzuhara

Kenta Miyoshi to win

72%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

Moise Kouame

6W 9L

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3#163Nishesh Basavareddy

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#226Moez Echargui

6-2 6-2#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-1 6-4#465Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 6-4#344Edward Winter

6-4 6-2#41Nuno Borges

6-4 6-4#320Max Hans Rehberg

4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(9)#28Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 7-5 3-6 2-6 7-6(8)#60Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(4) 6-2 6-1#81Marin Cilic

6-3 7-6(3)#388Jacopo Vasami

2-6 6-4 6-0#97Benjamin Bonzi

6-2 6-2#116Patrick Kypson

6-3 4-6 6-3#441Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-1 6-2#383Andrey Chepelev

Kenta Miyoshi

11W 4L

6-2 4-6 6-2#286Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 6-4#185Clement Chidekh

6-2 7-5#171Joel Schwaerzler

4-6 7-5 6-1#659Roger Pascual Ferra

6-0 6-1#686Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#343Lucas Poullain

6-3 6-2#300Mert Alkaya

6-3 7-6(0)#823Arda Azkara

6-2 6-4#717Hunter Heck

7-6(1) 6-2#609Erik Arutiunian

4-6 6-4 6-4#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 6-4#407Vadym Ursu

3-6 6-3 6-4#281Dan Added

6-2 6-2#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

6-2 6-2—Melih Anavatan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMoise KouameKouame

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Kenta MiyoshiMiyoshiKM

Kenta Miyoshi carries the stronger recent form — Moise Kouame's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.6%+4.5pp54.1%

1st Serve Won68.8%+7.8pp76.6%

2nd Serve Won49.1%+6.0pp55.1%

Aces / Match5.2—5.1

Double Faults / Match5.74.0 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+5.1pp43.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.1%+6.4pp44.5%

Break Pts Saved63.9%+7.1pp56.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+4.9pp54.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.6%1st Serve In+4.5pp54.1%

68.8%1st Serve Won+7.8pp76.6%

49.1%2nd Serve Won+6.0pp55.1%

5.2Aces / Match—5.1

5.7Double Faults / Match4.0 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+5.1pp43.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.1%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp44.5%

63.9%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp56.8%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+4.9pp54.7%