Dan Added #224France11 – 2Kenta Miyoshi #602Japan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Miyoshi's superior return stats and break point conversion in the recent 15-match window give him a structural edge on hard courts, supported by a better 2026 surface record.

• Miyoshi last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Added 10-5 (66.7%) on hard.
• Miyoshi return points won 43% vs Added 40.4% in last15, edge in creating break chances.
• Miyoshi break point conversion 47.3% vs Added 44.4% in last15, more clinical on key points.
• Miyoshi 2026 hard court record 18-6 (75%), Added 14-9 (60.9%), stronger season-long surface fit.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Added's recent competitiveness and Miyoshi's typical win margins suggest Added is likely to stay within 3.5 games, even in a loss.

• Added last15 average game margin -0.5 per match, Miyoshi +1.8, difference 2.3 games.
• Added covered +3.5 in 13 of last 15 matches (87%).
• Miyoshi's largest win margin in last15 was 8 games, but most wins were by 4 games or fewer.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent match game totals and competitive form point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games, with neither dominating easily.

• Added last15 average games per match 22.9, Miyoshi 21.7, combined average 22.3.
• Both players have 60%+ of recent matches going over 21.5 games.
• Added 7 of last 15 matches had 22+ games, Miyoshi 8 of last 15.
• No H2H, but both have competitive recent form suggesting a close match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined ace averages from recent hard-court matches suggest a total above 8.5 is probable, though variance in ace counts keeps confidence low.

• Miyoshi last15 aces per match 5.2, Added 4.6, combined average 9.8.
• Both players average over 4 aces per match on hard courts in last15.
• Miyoshi 2026 hard court ace rate likely higher given 5.2 overall last15.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average sits right at 4.0, making over 3.5 a marginal lean based on typical hard-court serving pressure.

• Miyoshi last15 double faults per match 2.1, Added 1.9, combined 4.0.
• Both players average close to 2 double faults per match on hard courts.
• No extreme low double fault rates to suggest a clear under.