AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Matias Soto #2622Sandro Kopp #280Austria0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Mon 7 Sept 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatias Soto · 18 places

Matias Soto

Soto reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 240 on 21 April 2025. Official ITF results list a 24-12 clay record in 2026 as of 20 July, supporting clay as his established playing surface.

Current ranking: #262
Peak ranking: #240 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Austrian player, age 26. His available 2026 ITF record is concentrated on clay; a reliably dated career-high ranking was not confirmed against the supplied current ranking.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Kopp has a slight edge on recent clay form and second-serve performance, but the odds heavily favor him, offering no value.

The match is expected to be competitive, with value on over 21.5 total games and over 4.5 double faults. Avoid betting on the match winner.

Context

Kopp, 283rd, is a clay-court specialist with a career 59% win rate and 247 clay wins. Soto, 261st, has a similar overall record but has been less consistent on serve recently.
Kopp's last 15 clay matches show a 60% win rate and 52.1% total points won, compared to Soto's 53.3% win rate and 49.5% total points won. Kopp also has a higher first-serve percentage (67.7% vs 53.7%) and wins more second-serve points (56.4% vs 49.8%). However, Soto's first-serve points won is slightly higher (71.2% vs 69.9%), so the edge is not overwhelming.
- Kopp last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 52.1% total points won, 67.7% first serve in.
- Soto last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 49.5% total points won, 53.7% first serve in.
- Kopp's second-serve points won is 56.4% vs Soto's 49.8%.
Soto is ranked 261st and has been playing mostly Challenger events on clay.
In his last five matches, Soto lost to Kilian Feldbausch (233), Marvin Moeller (278), Rudolf Molleker (458), and Felipe Meligeni Alves (465). These losses indicate a dip in form against players he would normally be expected to beat, which could give Kopp confidence.
- Soto lost to Kilian Feldbausch (rank 233) 6-3 6-2 on Sep 1.
- Soto lost to Marvin Moeller (rank 278) 6-3 7-6(6) on Aug 26.
- Soto lost to Rudolf Molleker (rank 458) 6-3 6-3 on Aug 18.
- Soto lost to Felipe Meligeni Alves (rank 465) 6-3 6-0 on Jul 24.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Sandro Kopp

1.29fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Kopp's stronger recent clay form and superior second-serve performance give him a structural edge in this Bo3.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Kopp's stronger recent clay form and superior second-serve performance give him a structural edge in this Bo3.
- Last 15 on clay: Kopp 9-6 (60%) vs Soto 8-7 (53.3%)
- Kopp holds a 53.6% games won vs Soto's 49.0% in the same window
- Kopp's second serve points won 56.4% vs Soto's 49.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSandro KoppEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and competitive games-won percentages suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Soto's last 15 average 22.3 games per match (335 games / 15)
- Kopp's last 15 average 19.3 games per match (289 games / 15)
- Combined average 20.8 games, with both players showing 50%+ games won
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent first-set scores frequently exceeding 9.5 games.
- Soto's recent first sets average 9.3 games (e.g., 6-3, 6-4, 7-5)
- Kopp's recent first sets average 9.1 games (e.g., 6-3, 7-6, 6-4)
- Both players have multiple first sets reaching 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's slightly better recent momentum and comparable first-serve effectiveness support a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Kopp's first set win conversion career 85% vs Soto 89%
- Kopp's last 15 first serve points won 69.9% vs Soto 71.2%
- Kopp's recent form includes 6-2, 6-4 win over Martin Krumich
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSandro KoppEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Soto's high double fault rate alone pushes the combined total above 4.5 in most matches.
- Soto averages 3.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Kopp averages 1.4 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 5.1 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Soto's high ace rate combined with Kopp's moderate ace output makes over 7.5 total aces plausible.
- Soto averages 5.2 aces per match in last 15
- Kopp averages 2.9 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 8.1 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Matias Soto

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-3 7-6(6)#278Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-4#448Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

6-3 6-0#465Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 6-4—Rafael Tosetto

6-1 6-4—Gabriel Tumasonis

6-1 7-5#115Nicolas Mejia

7-5 7-5#884Lorenzo Claverie

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#777Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-6(5) 6-3#519Alan Magadan

6-2 3-6 6-2#744Juan Sebastian Osorio

4-6 6-3 6-2#744Juan Sebastian Osorio

1-6 6-4 7-6(4)#819Mwendwa Mbithi

4-6 6-3 7-5#321Gonzalo Villanueva

Sandro Kopp

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#369Norbert Gombos 6-3 7-5#230Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#263Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-4#410Mika Brunold

6-1 6-7(4) 6-1#373Eduardo Ribeiro

3-6 6-1 6-4#419Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-1#547Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 6-1#364Sebastian Sorger

7-6(6) 6-3#364Sebastian Sorger

6-4 6-4#841Adrian Andreev

6-1 6-3#521Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-2—Leonardo Borrelli

6-2 6-1—Gabriel Sardo

6-0 6-4#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-4 6-4#286Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMatias SotoSoto

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Sandro KoppKoppSK

Sandro Kopp carries the stronger recent form — Matias Soto's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In53.7%+14.0pp67.7%

1st Serve Won71.2%+1.3pp69.9%

2nd Serve Won49.8%+6.6pp56.4%

Aces / Match5.2+2.32.9

Double Faults / Match3.72.3 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.5%+2.2pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted40.6%—40.9%

Break Pts Saved63.0%+3.6pp59.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+2.6pp52.1%

Serve · 2–3

53.7%1st Serve In+14.0pp67.7%

71.2%1st Serve Won+1.3pp69.9%

49.8%2nd Serve Won+6.6pp56.4%

5.2Aces / Match+2.32.9

3.7Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

37.5%Return Pts Won+2.2pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

40.6%Break Pts Converted—40.9%

63.0%Break Pts Saved+3.6pp59.4%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+2.6pp52.1%