ItalyComo - ItalyFinished
Predictions gradedSoto reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 240 on 21 April 2025. Official ITF results list a 24-12 clay record in 2026 as of 20 July, supporting clay as his established playing surface.
Swiss player, age 20, making his Grand Slam qualifying debut at the 2026 US Open. Contemporary reporting describes clay as his most comfortable surface.
Pre-match view
Feldbausch has better clay metrics but is overpriced at 1.29; Soto's resilience and serving make the match closer than odds suggest.
Consider over 21.5 total games and Soto to cover the spread or win a set.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 1
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%
Feldbausch's stronger clay return and serve metrics give him a structural edge over Soto.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
The price on Feldbausch is far too short given his actual recent clay form and the competitive nature of this matchup.
Kilian Feldbausch has fulfilled 9 of 12 recent win projections, a 75% success rate. His average estimated probability was 65.7%, with an expected 7.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating he has outperformed expectations. All three misses were losses, with no draws or subject wins, and the current 58% probability sits within his historical range of 58-78%.
Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.
Last 15
9 core stats · 1 even
Kilian Feldbausch carries the stronger recent form — Matias Soto's route runs through serve.
