FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Justin Boulais #398Canada1Matisse Bobichon #639France2

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 3-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJustin Boulais · 241 places

Justin Boulais

Canada

Canadian player; ITF records his ATP singles career high as No. 363 in June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a left-hander with a one-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #398
Peak ranking: #363 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #639
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Bobichon's superior recent form (60% win rate vs 33.3%) and break point conversion (48.9% vs 35.4%) make him a strong favorite on hard court.

The best bet is Bobichon to win at 3.20 odds, with a 30.7-point edge over the implied probability. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games.

Context

Bobichon, 639th, has been more consistent on hard courts this season with a 13-13 record, while Boulais, 403rd, has struggled recently despite a higher ranking.
Bobichon's 60% win rate in the last 15 matches contrasts sharply with Boulais' 33.3%, and Bobichon has also won more sets and games. However, Boulais has faced stronger opponents on average, so the gap may be less decisive than the raw record suggests.
- Bobichon last 15: 9-6 record, 58.8% sets won, 52.3% games won.
- Boulais last 15: 5-10 record, 40% sets won, 48.1% games won.
- Boulais' recent losses include matches against players ranked 93, 97, and 154, while Bobichon's wins have come mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
Bobichon's recent stats show a stronger first serve and better break point conversion, while Boulais has struggled with double faults and a lower first-serve percentage.
Bobichon wins 71.6% of first-serve points compared to Boulais' 68.2%, and converts 48.9% of break points versus Boulais' 35.4%. Boulais also averages 4.4 double faults per match, which could give Bobichon extra opportunities.
- Bobichon first-serve points won: 71.6% vs Boulais 68.2%.
- Bobichon break points converted: 48.9% vs Boulais 35.4%.
- Boulais double faults per match: 4.4 vs Bobichon 2.9.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Bobichon's stronger recent form and superior break point conversion give him a clear edge on hard court.
- Bobichon last 15: 9-6 record (60%), 58.8% sets won, 52.3% games won
- Boulais last 15: 5-10 record (33.3%), 40% sets won, 48.1% games won
- Bobichon break point conversion 48.9% vs Boulais 35.4%
- Bobichon first serve points won 71.6% vs Boulais 68.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average around 22-23 games, suggesting a competitive total.
- Boulais average match duration 125 min, Bobichon 111.7 min
- Boulais last 15 games per match avg 23.4, Bobichon 22.1
- Both players have similar return points won (~39%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players are likely to be competitive, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Boulais recent first sets often tight (7-6, 7-5, 6-4)
- Bobichon recent first sets include 6-4, 7-5, 6-3
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets are expected to be competitive, with a slight lean to over 9.5 games.
- Boulais second sets often close (6-3, 6-4, 7-6)
- Bobichon second sets include 6-4, 7-5, 6-3
- Both players have similar second serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's high first-set conversion rate and stronger serve performance support him taking the opener.
- Bobichon first set win conversion career 88%
- Boulais first set win conversion career 80%
- Bobichon last 15 first serve points won 71.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatisse BobichonEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's overall set-winning rate is higher, though second-set dynamics are less certain.
- Bobichon last 15 sets won 58.8%
- Boulais last 15 sets won 40%
- Bobichon second serve points won 51.6% vs Boulais 51.9%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's high ace rate combined with Boulais's moderate ace count supports over 9.5 total aces.
- Bobichon aces per match 6.3, Boulais 3.8
- Combined average aces per match 10.1
- Bobichon first serve points won 71.6%
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais's high double fault rate pushes the combined total over 6.5.
- Boulais double faults per match 4.4
- Bobichon double faults per match 2.9
- Combined average double faults per match 7.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given both players' tiebreak frequency and similar win rates, a tiebreak is a coin flip.
- Boulais tiebreak win percentage 50%
- Bobichon tiebreak win percentage 46%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Justin Boulais

5W 10L

6-0 6-3—Matis Roche

7-6(4) 6-3#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-5 7-6(4)#93Adam Walton

6-3 6-3—Connor Church

5-7 6-2 7-5#299Johannus Monday

6-1 6-3#247August Holmgren

7-5 6-1#396Yuta Shimizu

6-2 7-6(6)#154Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(4) 6-0#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-2#608Millen Hurrion

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(2) 4-6 6-3#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(6) 7-5 6-3#513Enzo Aguiard

1-6 7-5 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 6-2#427Ozan Baris

Matisse Bobichon

9W 6L

6-3 5-7 6-0#881Adil Kalyanpur

6-3 6-4#409Robin Bertrand

6-4 5-7 6-1#621Nicolas Tepmahc

7-5 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-4 3-3 ret.—Daniel Jovanovski

6-4 5-7 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-4#796Scott Jones

6-2 6-4—Ymerali Ibraimi

6-3 6-2#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#786Benjamin Pietri

6-2 4-6 6-4#447Viktor Durasovic

6-0 6-4—Niels Villard

6-4 6-2#527Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(4) 6-3#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

4-6 6-2 6-0—Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJustin BoulaisBoulais

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Matisse BobichonBobichonMB

Matisse Bobichon carries the stronger recent form — Justin Boulais's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.3%+2.4pp58.7%

1st Serve Won68.2%+3.4pp71.6%

2nd Serve Won51.9%—51.6%

Aces / Match3.8+2.56.3

Double Faults / Match4.41.5 fewer2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.0%—39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.4%+13.5pp48.9%

Break Pts Saved60.6%+1.7pp58.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+1.9pp51.4%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

56.3%1st Serve In+2.4pp58.7%

68.2%1st Serve Won+3.4pp71.6%

51.9%2nd Serve Won—51.6%

3.8Aces / Match+2.56.3

4.4Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.0%Return Pts Won—39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

35.4%Break Pts Converted+13.5pp48.9%

60.6%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp58.9%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+1.9pp51.4%