FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Justin Boulais #398Canada2Matis RocheFrance0

Sets 6-0 · 6-3Sun 6 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Justin Boulais

Canada

Canadian player; ITF records his ATP singles career high as No. 363 in June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a left-hander with a one-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #398
Peak ranking: #363 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Matis Roche

France

Roche, 21, is identified as a left-hander. Public records show a small, mainly clay-court sample; no reliable singles ranking or career-high figure was found.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 22:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Boulais has a massive surface and serve edge on hard courts, but his recent form and the heavy odds make the match winner market unappealing.

The best value lies in the total games over 20.5 and set 1 total over 9.5, as both players trend toward longer matches. Avoid backing Roche outright or in set 1 despite tempting odds.

Context

Boulais, ranked 403, is a left-hander with a one-handed backhand and has spent his recent schedule entirely on hard courts.
Roche's last 15 matches are mostly on clay, and his only two hard-court outings in that window ended in straight-set losses. Boulais has faced tougher opponents on this surface and should be more comfortable with the conditions.
- Boulais' last 15 matches are all on hard courts, with a 4-11 record.
- Roche has played only 2 hard-court matches in his last 15, losing both.
- Roche's last 15 overall record is 4-10, with most matches on clay.
Boulais has been competing in ATP Challenger and Tour events, often against higher-ranked players.
Roche's recent wins have come against unranked or low-ranked players, and his losses include a 6-0 6-2 defeat to world No. 662. Boulais' experience against better competition could give him an edge in key moments.
- Boulais' last five losses: to No. 97 Bonzi, No. 93 Walton, unranked Church, No. 299 Monday, No. 247 Holmgren.
- Roche's last three wins: over unranked Pujo, unranked Dubinin, and unranked Jorquera.
- Roche's most recent loss was 6-0 6-2 to No. 662 Raquillet.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Justin Boulais

1.07fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Boulais has a massive surface-fit and experience edge on hard courts, while Roche has almost no hard-court success and a much weaker recent schedule.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Justin Boulais

1.15fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Boulais' stronger serve and higher first-set conversion rate give him a clear edge to start the match.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.25fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The model estimate of 55% is below the implied 80%, indicating no value on Under 2.5 sets.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Justin Boulais 2-0

1.25fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The model estimate of 45% is well below the implied 80%, indicating no value on this selection.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Boulais has a massive surface-fit and experience edge on hard courts, while Roche has almost no hard-court success and a much weaker recent schedule.
- Justin Boulais holds a 25-19 hard-court record in 2026, while Matis Roche is 0-1 on hard courts in 2026 and 0-2 in his career.
- Boulais' last 15 matches are all on hard courts with a 26.7% win rate, but his opponents averaged a ranking of 293, far stronger than Roche's recent opposition.
- Roche's last 15 overall record is 28.6%, with only 2 hard-court matches in that window (both losses).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJustin BoulaisEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and their similar games-won percentages suggest a competitive match.
- Boulais' last 15 matches averaged 23.9 games per match (358 total games).
- Roche's last 14 matches averaged 24.4 games per match (341 total games).
- Both players have a combined 46.4% and 44.9% games won percentage, indicating competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often reach 10 or more games, supporting an over on the set total.
- Boulais' last 15 first sets averaged 9.8 games per set.
- Roche's last 14 first sets averaged 9.6 games per set.
- Both players have a first-set tiebreak rate above 20% in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Boulais' stronger serve and higher first-set conversion rate give him a clear edge to start the match.
- Boulais' first-set win conversion is 80% career, and he has won the first set in 6 of his last 15 matches.
- Roche has lost the first set in 9 of his last 14 matches.
- Boulais' first-serve points won is 67.2% over the last 15 matches, compared to Roche's 59.4%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJustin BoulaisEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The combined straight-set rate is above 50%, and Boulais' strong first-set performance reduces the likelihood of a deciding set.
- Boulais' last 15 matches have gone to three sets only 5 times (33%).
- Roche's last 14 matches have gone to three sets 6 times (43%).
- Boulais' first-set win conversion is 80%, and when he wins the first set, he often closes in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests a strong chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Boulais has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 15 matches.
- Roche has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 14 matches.
- Both players have a career tiebreak win percentage near 50% or higher.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais' ace rate is significantly higher than Roche's, and a competitive match could see the total exceed 5.5.
- Boulais averages 3.9 aces per match over his last 15 matches.
- Roche averages only 0.6 aces per match over his last 13 matches.
- Combined average aces per match is 4.5, but Boulais' serve advantage could push the total higher.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double-fault rates, making an over on the combined total plausible.
- Boulais averages 4.3 double faults per match over his last 15 matches.
- Roche averages 2.9 double faults per match over his last 12 matches.
- Combined average double faults per match is 7.2.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Roche's price looks tempting but his hard-court record and recent form make him a trap.

Justin Boulais

4W 11L

7-6(4) 6-3#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-5 7-6(4)#93Adam Walton

6-3 6-3—Connor Church

5-7 6-2 7-5#299Johannus Monday

6-1 6-3#247August Holmgren

7-5 6-1#396Yuta Shimizu

6-2 7-6(6)#154Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(4) 6-0#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-2#608Millen Hurrion

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(2) 4-6 6-3#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(6) 7-5 6-3#513Enzo Aguiard

1-6 7-5 6-2#427Ozan Baris

6-3 6-2#427Ozan Baris

1-6 6-1 6-2#173Michael Mmoh

Matis Roche

4W 10L

6-0 6-2#662Leo Raquillet

7-6(2) 2-6 10-4—Octave Pujo

7-6(1) 6-1—Alexey Dubinin

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 11-9—Ruslan Serazhetdinov

6-4 4-6 10-5—Robinson Le Meur

6-2 6-2#899Leonid Sheyngezikht

7-5 6-1#1818Rayane Oumaouche

3-6 7-5 10-6—Nicola Senn

6-3 6-3—Emiliano Jorquera

6-2 6-4#621Nicolas Tepmahc

7-6(6) 7-5—Philippe Renard

6-3 1-6 10-2—Cyril Respaut

6-2 6-1—Cyril Respaut

6-2 6-1—Lucas Gueymard Wayenburg

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJustin BoulaisBoulais

Last 15 · 15 vs 14

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Matis RocheRocheMR

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1456.5%+11.0pp67.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1467.2%+7.8pp59.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1450.8%+3.3pp47.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/143.9+3.30.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/144.31.4 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1438.4%+3.9pp42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1432.8%+15.3pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1459.8%+7.7pp52.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1448.8%—48.9%

Serve · 3–2

56.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/14+11.0pp67.5%

67.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/14+7.8pp59.4%

50.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/14+3.3pp47.5%

3.9Aces / Match15/15 · 13/14+3.30.6

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/141.4 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

38.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/14+3.9pp42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

32.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/14+15.3pp48.1%

59.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/14+7.7pp52.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/14—48.9%

Justin Boulais #398Canada2Matis RocheFrance0

Player Profiles

Justin Boulais

Matis Roche

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Justin Boulais

Justin Boulais

Under 2.5

Justin Boulais 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Matis Roche @ 7.00

Matis Roche @ 4.50

Justin Boulais

Matis Roche

Stat Battle