FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Adil Kalyanpur #881India1Matisse Bobichon #639France2

Sets 3-6 · 7-5 · 0-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatisse Bobichon · 242 places

Adil Kalyanpur

India

Kalyanpur, 26, is right-handed with a two-handed backhand. His highest recorded singles ranking was No. 842 in October 2024.

Current ranking: #881
Peak ranking: #842 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass, Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #639
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 22:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Bobichon is a strong favorite based on superior recent form, ranking, and serve stats.

The match winner odds are too short for value, but the game handicap of Bobichon -3.5 offers a better angle. Expect a straight-sets victory for Bobichon, with Kalyanpur's poor form and weak serve making an upset unlikely.

Context

Bobichon, 23, is ranked 639 and has built a 59.8% career win rate, with most of his success on hard courts. Kalyanpur, 24, is ranked 881 and has struggled recently, winning just 20% of his last 15 matches.
Bobichon's recent hard-court record is 9-6, including wins over players ranked near or above Kalyanpur, while Kalyanpur has lost his last five matches on clay and has not won on that surface in his last five attempts. This suggests Bobichon is better prepared for the hard-court conditions in Cassis, though Kalyanpur's overall hard-court sample is slightly better than his clay form.
- Bobichon's last 15 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 6 losses (60% win rate).
- Kalyanpur's last 15 overall matches: 3 wins, 12 losses (20% win rate).
- Kalyanpur's last 5 clay matches: 0 wins, 5 losses.
- Bobichon has wins over opponents ranked 300, 447, and 564 in his recent hard-court stretch.
Kalyanpur's career first-serve win rate is 61%, but his recent numbers have dipped. He has also struggled with double faults throughout his career, averaging 2.6 per match.
In his last 15 matches, Kalyanpur has won just 60.8% of first-serve points and 40.4% of second-serve points, while averaging 4.4 double faults per match. Against Bobichon, who wins 71.7% of first-serve points and saves 59.8% of break points, Kalyanpur's serve could be a major liability and lead to frequent break opportunities.
- Kalyanpur's last 15: first-serve points won 60.8%, second-serve points won 40.4%.
- Kalyanpur's last 15: 4.4 double faults per match.
- Bobichon's last 15: first-serve points won 71.7%, break points saved 59.8%.
Kalyanpur, ranked No. 881, played a doubles match in Mallorca on 3 September and now faces Bobichon in Cassis three days later.
The short turnaround adds travel and a doubles commitment before this singles match, but the effect on his performance is likely small.
- Kalyanpur and Jeevan Nedunchezhiyan lost their Mallorca doubles round-of-16 match 3-6, 4-6 on 3 September.
- Stored recent sample: 1 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Matisse Bobichon

1.10fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Bobichon's superior recent form, ranking, and hard-court performance make him a strong favorite.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Matisse Bobichon

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Bobichon's superior recent serve and return numbers give him a clear edge in the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Matisse Bobichon

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Bobichon's stronger serve and return numbers should carry into the second set.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Lean

Matisse Bobichon 2-0

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Bobichon's superior set-winning percentage and Kalyanpur's frequent straight-set losses support a 2-0 victory, but the offered price is too short relative to the model estimate.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Bobichon's set dominance and Kalyanpur's straight-set losses support a two-set match, but the offered price is too short relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Bobichon's superior recent form, ranking, and hard-court performance make him a strong favorite.
- Bobichon last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Kalyanpur 3-12 (20%)
- Bobichon last 15 total points won 51.2% vs Kalyanpur 44.9%
- Bobichon ranking 639 vs Kalyanpur 881
- Bobichon last 15 hard-court record 9-6, Kalyanpur 3-7
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's superior game-winning percentage suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Bobichon last 15 games won 51.5% vs Kalyanpur 38.7%
- Bobichon last 15 total points won 51.2% vs Kalyanpur 44.9%
- Bobichon ranking 639 vs Kalyanpur 881
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatisse Bobichon -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Bobichon's edge, Kalyanpur's competitiveness in some matches and Bobichon's longer matches suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 20 games.
- Bobichon last 15 average duration 112.7 minutes, Kalyanpur 91.3 minutes
- Kalyanpur last 15 games won 38.7%, Bobichon 51.5%
- Both players have played several three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Bobichon's stronger serve and return numbers in recent matches give him an edge in the opening set.
- Bobichon first-set win conversion 88% career, Kalyanpur 86%
- Bobichon last 15 first-serve points won 71.7% vs Kalyanpur 60.8%
- Bobichon last 15 return points won 38.5% vs Kalyanpur 35.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Bobichon's stronger serve and return numbers should carry into the second set.
- Bobichon last 15 second-set win rate implied by sets won 58.8%
- Bobichon last 15 first-serve points won 71.7% vs Kalyanpur 60.8%
- Kalyanpur last 15 second-serve points won 40.4% vs Bobichon 52.1%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMatisse BobichonEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Bobichon's superior set-winning percentage and Kalyanpur's frequent straight-set losses support a 2-0 victory.
- Bobichon last 15 sets won 58.8% vs Kalyanpur 27.8%
- Bobichon last 15 hard-court record 9-6, Kalyanpur 3-7
- Kalyanpur lost 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMatisse Bobichon 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Bobichon's set dominance and Kalyanpur's straight-set losses support a two-set match.
- Bobichon last 15 sets won 58.8% vs Kalyanpur 27.8%
- Kalyanpur lost 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Bobichon last 15 hard-court record 9-6, Kalyanpur 3-7
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's dominance in sets reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Bobichon last 15 tiebreak win percentage 46%, Kalyanpur 45%
- Bobichon last 15 sets won 58.8%, Kalyanpur 27.8%
- Kalyanpur lost 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's high ace rate could push the total over 7.5, though Kalyanpur's low ace count adds uncertainty.
- Bobichon last 15 aces per match 6.2, Kalyanpur 1.1
- Bobichon career aces 418 in 112 matches (3.7 per match)
- Kalyanpur career aces 344 in 267 matches (1.3 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 6.5 total double faults.
- Kalyanpur last 15 double faults per match 4.4, Bobichon 2.6
- Kalyanpur career double faults 691 in 267 matches (2.6 per match)
- Bobichon career double faults 256 in 112 matches (2.3 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price offers no value and carries significant risk given the model's lower estimate.

Adil Kalyanpur

3W 12L

6-0 6-1#589Sebastian Gima

6-3 6-3#830Taiyo Yamanaka

5-7 6-3 6-3—Christopher Papa

0-6 6-4 6-3#877Nitin Kumar Sinha

6-1 6-2#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-1 5-7 6-2#1664Brandon Perez

6-4 6-2#736Oskar Brostrom Poulsen

6-4 6-2#877Nitin Kumar Sinha

7-5 4-6 6-1#1755Atharva Sharma

3-6 6-3 6-0#479Eero Vasa

6-2 6-1#294Giles Hussey

6-2 ret.#637Giovanni Oradini

6-1 6-2#796Gabriele Pennaforti

3-6 6-1 6-4#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#271Franco Roncadelli

Matisse Bobichon

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#409Robin Bertrand

6-4 5-7 6-1#621Nicolas Tepmahc

7-5 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-4 3-3 ret.—Daniel Jovanovski

6-4 5-7 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-4#796Scott Jones

6-2 6-4—Ymerali Ibraimi

6-3 6-2#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#786Benjamin Pietri

6-2 4-6 6-4#447Viktor Durasovic

6-0 6-4—Niels Villard

6-4 6-2#527Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(4) 6-3#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

4-6 6-2 6-0—Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas

6-4 3-6 6-3#300Mert Alkaya

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAdil KalyanpurKalyanpur

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Matisse BobichonBobichonMB

Matisse Bobichon carries the stronger recent form — Adil Kalyanpur's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In64.8%+6.3pp58.5%

1st Serve Won60.8%+10.9pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won40.4%+11.7pp52.1%

Aces / Match1.1+5.16.2

Double Faults / Match4.41.8 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.2%+3.3pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.4%+4.8pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved52.9%+6.9pp59.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won44.9%+6.3pp51.2%

Serve · 1–4

64.8%1st Serve In+6.3pp58.5%

60.8%1st Serve Won+10.9pp71.7%

40.4%2nd Serve Won+11.7pp52.1%

1.1Aces / Match+5.16.2

4.4Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

35.2%Return Pts Won+3.3pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–2

41.4%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp46.2%

52.9%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp59.8%

Points · 0–1

44.9%Total Pts Won+6.3pp51.2%

Adil Kalyanpur #881India1Matisse Bobichon #639France2

Player Profiles

Adil Kalyanpur

Matisse Bobichon

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Matisse Bobichon

Matisse Bobichon

Matisse Bobichon

Matisse Bobichon 2-0

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Matisse Bobichon @ 1.10

Adil Kalyanpur @ 4.00

Adil Kalyanpur

Matisse Bobichon

Stat Battle