Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Hiroki Moriya #518Japan2Dominik Palan #498Czechia1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-2Mon 7 Sept 2026, 04:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–271%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDominik Palan · 20 places

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

Moriya, 35, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His career-high singles ranking was No. 143 in January 2015.

Current ranking: #518
Peak ranking: #143 · 2015
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Dominik Palan

Czechia

Palan is a Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His ATP career-high singles ranking is No. 280, achieved in October 2023; no reliable preferred-surface source was surfaced.

Current ranking: #498
Peak ranking: #280 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 15:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Moriya and Palan are evenly matched, with Moriya's return game offsetting Palan's stronger serve and recent hard-court form.

Expect a tight match with potential for over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 total aces, while Palan +1.5 games is a reasonable handicap play.

Context

Moriya, 35, is a veteran Japanese player ranked 518 with a career win rate of 52.8%.
His recent hard-court results are split: he beat players ranked 617, 896, and 821, but lost to opponents ranked 486, 370, and 312. This suggests he is competitive against lower-ranked players but struggles against those closer to his own ranking, which could matter against Palan, who is ranked 506.
- Last 12 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 7 losses.
- Wins came against opponents ranked 617, 896, 821, 678, and 478.
- Losses came against opponents ranked 486, 370, 312, 864, 255, 712, and 344.
Palan, 25, is a tall Czech player ranked 506 with a career first-serve win rate of 72%.
His strong serving could put pressure on Moriya, but his poor return numbers suggest he may struggle to break serve. Moriya's return points won is 38.3%, slightly better, which could be a key factor in a match likely to feature many service holds.
- Palan's last 15 matches: 5.9 aces per match, 73.4% first-serve points won.
- Palan's return points won: 36%.
- Moriya's return points won: 38.3%.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight edge to Moriya based on superior return game and veteran consistency, though Palan's stronger recent hard-court record makes this a coin flip.
- Moriya last 15 hard-court record: 5-7 (41.7%), Palan last 15 hard-court record: 7-6 (53.8%)
- Moriya last 15 overall return points won: 38.3%, Palan: 36.0%
- Moriya career hard-court win percentage: 52.8%, Palan: 53.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance52%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched players with similar stats suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Moriya last 15 average games per match: 20.9, Palan: 21.7
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (49.2% vs 49.3%)
- Moriya last 15 average duration: 106.1 min, Palan: 106.6 min
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and decent break-point saving from both players point to a first set with at least 10 games.
- Moriya last 15 first-set games average: 9.3, Palan: 9.5
- Both players have first-serve points won around 67-73%, indicating tight service games
- Moriya last 15 break points saved: 57.8%, Palan: 66.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's recent hard-court form and stronger serve give him a good chance to cover the +1.5 game handicap.
- Palan last 15 hard-court record: 7-6, Moriya: 5-7
- Palan last 15 games won percentage: 49.2%, Moriya: 48.4%
- Palan has a higher first-serve points won percentage (73.4% vs 66.9%)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDominik Palan +1.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moriya's slightly better break-point conversion and first-set conversion rate give him a marginal edge in the opening set.
- Moriya first-set win conversion: 85% career, Palan: 83%
- Moriya last 15 first-serve points won: 66.9%, Palan: 73.4%
- Moriya last 15 break points converted: 46.3%, Palan: 42.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHiroki MoriyaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's strong ace count, especially on hard courts, should push the combined total over 8.5.
- Palan last 15 aces per match: 5.9, Moriya: 2.7
- Palan last 15 hard-court aces per match: 6.0
- Combined average aces per match: 8.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's high double-fault rate, combined with Moriya's moderate rate, makes over 7.5 double faults likely.
- Palan last 15 double faults per match: 5.3, Moriya: 3.1
- Palan last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 5.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%

Prediction history

Hiroki Moriya has struggled to convert projected wins

Hiroki Moriya has fulfilled 1 of 4 recent win projections, a 25% success rate. His average estimated probability was 61.5%, but he won only once, with all three misses ending in straight-set losses. The current prediction of 52% sits below his historical range of 58-65%, suggesting less confidence than in past projections.

Recent evidence for Hiroki Moriya4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#856Jason Jung2-0#472Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Jason Jung won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#417Hiroki Moriya0-2#771Timo Legout

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

25 May·Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#416Hiroki Moriya0-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

Hiroki Moriya to win

65%probability

Ronald Hohmann won

Missed

3 May·Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

BetBugsHiroki Moriya to win·58%

Matched

3 May 2026

Wuxi - China

#493Pietro Orlando Fellin1-2#429Hiroki Moriya

Hiroki Moriya to win

58%probability

Hiroki Moriya won

Matched

Previous match context available

Hiroki Moriya

6W 9L

6-1 7-6(2)#486Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#617S D Prajwal Dev

6-1 6-3#896Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-2#370Tung-Lin Wu

6-3 6-1#821Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-0#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-3 7-6(9)#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-3#255Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 6-1#712Thomas Fancutt

6-3 5-7 6-1#678Andreja Petrovic

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#899Jason Jung

6-4 7-6(1)#376Alex Martinez

4-6 6-2 6-3#344Edward Winter

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#478Alex Rybakov

7-6(5) 6-2#854Hoyoung Roh

Dominik Palan

7W 8L

6-1 6-4#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-3#768Ji Sung Nam

6-1 6-4#421Semen Pankin

7-6(4) 6-4#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

3-6 7-6(11) 6-2#305Yanki Erel

3-6 6-3 6-4#259Max Basing

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4—Bernardo Munk Mesa

7-5 6-3#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 7-5#407Vadym Ursu

6-4 6-4#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-2 6-0—Adam Martin Espinar

6-3 1-6 6-3#896David Poljak

6-3 6-2#831John Sperle

6-3 6-3#566Alec Beckley

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHiroki MoriyaMoriya

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Dominik PalanPalanDP

Hiroki Moriya carries the stronger recent form — Dominik Palan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.4%+1.7pp56.7%

1st Serve Won66.9%+6.5pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+3.2pp47.4%

Aces / Match2.7+3.25.9

Double Faults / Match3.12.2 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.3%+2.3pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.3%+4.0pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved57.8%+8.5pp66.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.2%—49.3%

Serve · 3–2

58.4%1st Serve In+1.7pp56.7%

66.9%1st Serve Won+6.5pp73.4%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp47.4%

2.7Aces / Match+3.25.9

3.1Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

38.3%Return Pts Won+2.3pp36.0%

Pressure · 1–1

46.3%Break Pts Converted+4.0pp42.3%

57.8%Break Pts Saved+8.5pp66.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Total Pts Won—49.3%