ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Dominik Palan #498Czechia2Ji Sung Nam #768South Korea0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Sun 30 Aug 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDominik Palan · 270 places

Dominik Palan

Czechia

Palan is a Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His ATP career-high singles ranking is No. 280, achieved in October 2023; no reliable preferred-surface source was surfaced.

Current ranking: #498
Peak ranking: #280 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jisung Nam

South Korea

Nam, 33, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. His highest singles ranking was No. 236 in August 2019.

Current ranking: #768
Peak ranking: #236 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 22:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Palan's superior first-serve points won and higher ranking give him a moderate edge over Nam, with value on Palan to win at 2.10.

Both players average over 22 games per match, making over 21.5 total games a strong play. Palan's high ace and double-fault rates also support overs on those markets.

Context

Palan, ranked 502, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand who has played mostly on hard courts this season.
His recent hard-court record is 6-7 over the last 13 matches, with losses to players ranked 420 and 887 in his last two outings. That suggests he can be vulnerable against lower-ranked opposition, though his overall points-won percentage on hard courts is close to 50%.
- Last 15 hard-court record: 6 wins, 7 losses (46.2% win rate).
- Recent losses: 6-1 6-4 to Semen Pankin (rank 420) and 7-6(4) 6-4 to Pavlos Tsitsipas (rank 887).
Nam, ranked 768, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand who has played a mix of hard and indoor hard events in the last 15 matches.
His hard-court record over the last 8 matches is 3-5, with losses to players ranked 438, 215, and 382. However, his return points won on hard courts is 41.9%, which is higher than Palan's 35.6%, so he may still be competitive in return games.
- Last 8 hard-court record: 3 wins, 5 losses (37.5% win rate).
- Recent hard-court losses: 6-3 6-2 to Marat Sharipov (rank 438), 6-4 6-2 to Braden Shick (rank 215), 6-3 6-4 to Marek Gengel (rank 382).
The two players have met twice before, both on hard courts, with each winning once.
Nam won their last meeting in August 2024 in three sets, while Palan won in straight sets in May 2023. The split suggests neither player has a clear edge in this matchup, though Nam's recent win may give him a slight psychological advantage.
- 2024-08-20: Nam won 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3.
- 2023-05-01: Palan won 6-4 6-3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Palan's stronger recent hard-court serve numbers and higher ranking give him a moderate edge over Nam, whose recent hard-court form is weaker.
- Palan last 15 on hard: 6-7 record, 49.7% games won, 73.5% first-serve points won
- Nam last 15 on hard: 3-5 record, 50.3% games won, 67.3% first-serve points won
- Palan ranking 502 vs Nam 768; Palan has won 3 of last 5 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDominik PalanEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 total games, and their competitive hard-court stats suggest a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Palan last 15 average games per match: 22.9 (344 games / 15 matches)
- Nam last 15 average games per match: 22.1 (331 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 50% in recent hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent set-level game counts and H2H first-set scores indicate a reasonable chance of a competitive first set exceeding 9.5 games.
- Palan last 15 hard-court average set games: 10.1 (302 games / 30 sets)
- Nam last 15 hard-court average set games: 9.1 (155 games / 17 sets)
- H2H first sets: 6-3 and 6-4, both over 9.5 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's slightly better first-serve effectiveness in recent matches supports a small edge in the opening set.
- Palan career first-set win conversion 83% vs Nam 85%
- Palan last 15 first-serve points won 73.3% vs Nam 69.3%
- H2H: Palan won first set in 2023 meeting, Nam won first set in 2024 meeting
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDominik PalanEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's high ace rate combined with Nam's moderate ace count makes over 9.5 total aces likely based on recent averages.
- Palan last 15 aces per match: 6.7
- Nam last 15 aces per match: 3.4
- Combined average aces per match: 10.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Palan's high double-fault rate drives the combined average above 7.5, making the over a reasonable expectation.
- Palan last 15 double faults per match: 6.1
- Nam last 15 double faults per match: 2.7
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-3 6-7(5) 6-3Dominik Palan#502vJi Sung Nam#768Aug 20, 2024

W6-4 6-3Dominik Palan#502vJi Sung Nam#768May 1, 2023

2 total meetings

Dominik Palan

6W 9L

6-1 6-4#420Semen Pankin

7-6(4) 6-4#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

3-6 7-6(11) 6-2#303Yanki Erel

3-6 6-3 6-4#266Max Basing

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#543Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4—Bernardo Munk Mesa

7-5 6-3#487Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 7-5#401Vadym Ursu

6-4 6-4#602Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-2 6-0—Adam Martin Espinar

6-3 1-6 6-3#896David Poljak

6-3 6-2#820John Sperle

6-3 6-3#560Alec Beckley

5-7 6-3 7-5—Luc Koenig

6-3 7-6(2)#282Alastair Gray

Ji Sung Nam

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#186Jan Kumstat

7-5 6-4#434Laurent Lokoli

6-3 6-2#438Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-4 6-2#215Braden Shick

6-4 6-4#877Yuta Kikuchi

6-2 6-4#540Takuya Kumasaka

6-3 6-4#382Marek Gengel

1-6 7-6(6) 6-4#553Kokoro Isomura

6-4 6-4#306Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-0 6-1—Nathan Trouve

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(6)#271Hynek Barton

6-4 5-7 6-4#319Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-3#630Tsung-Hao Huang

2-6 7-6(3) 6-2#143Jurij Rodionov

7-6(5) 6-1—Takeru Yuzuki

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DPDominik PalanPalan

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Ji Sung NamNamJN

Ji Sung Nam carries the stronger recent form — Dominik Palan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In55.8%+1.6pp57.4%

1st Serve Won73.3%+4.0pp69.3%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+4.0pp51.5%

Aces / Match6.7+3.33.4

Double Faults / Match6.13.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+4.0pp39.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.5%+1.2pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved67.3%+9.9pp57.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+1.2pp50.0%

Serve · 2–3

55.8%1st Serve In+1.6pp57.4%

73.3%1st Serve Won+4.0pp69.3%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp51.5%

6.7Aces / Match+3.33.4

6.1Double Faults / Match3.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+4.0pp39.1%

Pressure · 1–1

40.5%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp41.7%

67.3%Break Pts Saved+9.9pp57.4%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.0%