AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Matthias Ujvary #1047Austria0Olle Wallin #407Sweden2

Sets 5-7 · 2-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOlle Wallin · 640 places

Matthias Ujvary

Austria

The Austrian right-hander reached his first professional singles final at the M15 Poprad in August 2026. His career-high singles ranking was No. 932 in April 2024.

Current ranking: #1047
Peak ranking: #932 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Olle Wallin

Sweden

The Swedish right-hander reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in July 2026. No reliable public source identified a declared preferred surface.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #368 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Wallin's superior serve and clay pedigree give him an edge, but Ujvary's recent form is comparable, making the 1.10 odds on Wallin poor value.

The match is likely to be competitive, with value in over 21.5 total games and over 7.5 total aces. Avoid backing Wallin at the current price due to his vulnerability against lower-ranked players.

Context

Wallin, 24, is ranked 414 and has a strong first serve that has produced 5.9 aces per match on clay in his last 14 matches.
Wallin's first-serve effectiveness is a clear advantage in this matchup. Ujvary's lower first-serve win rate and higher double-fault rate could give Wallin more opportunities to attack on return. However, Ujvary's return numbers are slightly better, so the match may hinge on who can hold serve more consistently.
- Wallin has won 73.2% of first-serve points on clay in his last 14 matches.
- Ujvary has won 61.6% of first-serve points on clay in his last 13 matches.
- Wallin averages 5.9 aces per match on clay, while Ujvary averages 1.9.
Ujvary, 25, is unranked but has a solid clay-court game built around consistent returning.
Ujvary's return numbers suggest he can pressure Wallin's second serve, which has been vulnerable at 47.9% points won. If Ujvary can convert break points at his recent 43.3% rate, he could offset Wallin's serving advantage. However, Wallin's strong first serve may limit those opportunities.
- Ujvary has won 45.7% of return points on clay in his last 13 matches.
- Wallin has won 41.2% of return points on clay in his last 14 matches.
- Wallin has won only 47.9% of second-serve points on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Olle Wallin

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Wallin's stronger serve metrics and higher career clay win rate give him a structural edge, though Ujvary's recent form is comparable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Wallin's stronger serve metrics and higher career clay win rate give him a structural edge, though Ujvary's recent form is comparable.
- Wallin last 15 on clay: 10-4 record, 55.2% games won, 73.2% first-serve points won
- Ujvary last 15 on clay: 10-5 record, 54.6% games won, 61.6% first-serve points won
- Wallin career clay win rate 55/93 matches (59%), Ujvary 93/206 (45%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOlle WallinEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive recent form and similar point-winning percentages suggest a close match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Ujvary last 15 average games per match: 20.3 (304 games / 15 matches)
- Wallin last 15 average games per match: 24.3 (365 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (51% vs 51.3%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 1 is likely to be competitive given both players' similar serve percentages and recent set scores.
- Ujvary last 15 set 1 average games: 9.5 (calculated from recent form)
- Wallin last 15 set 1 average games: 9.7 (calculated from recent form)
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages around 60%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's superior first-serve and break-point saving on clay should help him start stronger in set 1.
- Wallin first-serve points won on clay: 73.2% vs Ujvary 61.6%
- Wallin break points saved on clay: 65.2% vs Ujvary 53.3%
- Wallin first-set win conversion career: 91% vs Ujvary 86%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOlle WallinEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's high ace rate alone pushes the combined total over 7.5, with Ujvary contributing a few.
- Wallin averages 5.9 aces per match on clay in last 15
- Ujvary averages 1.9 aces per match on clay in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 7.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates suggest a combined total likely over 5.5.
- Ujvary averages 3.2 double faults per match on clay in last 15
- Wallin averages 2.6 double faults per match on clay in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Wallin is a trap given Ujvary's comparable recent clay form and Wallin's vulnerability against higher-ranked opponents.

Previous match context available

Matthias Ujvary

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#899Lorenzo Rottoli

6-3 6-4—Noel Larwig

1-6 6-2 6-3—Facundo Yunis

6-3 6-3#509Peter Makk

6-1 7-5#580Karol Filar

6-3 6-3—Massimo Pizzigoni

6-4 3-6 6-3#682Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-3—Peter Sallay

6-2 2-6 6-1#704Ziga Sesko

6-4 2-6 6-4—Niklas Waldner

7-6(4) 6-2—Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

6-3 6-1#859Ali Yazdani

6-4 7-5—Matthieu Chambonniere

6-0 6-2—Snir Morag

6-1 6-3—Mateja Stefanovic

Olle Wallin

10W 5L

6-4 3-6 6-4#424Johan Nikles

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)#894Andrea Colombo

4-6 6-0 6-3#893Niccolo Catini 5-7 6-2 6-3#406Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#809Niklas Guttau

6-2 1-6 7-5—Christopher Papa

6-1 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-4 7-5#76Jan Choinski

6-3 1-6 6-1#209Roberto Carballes Baena

3-6 6-3 6-2#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(9) 6-3#443Matthew William Donald

4-6 6-2 6-2—Vincent Dullinger

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#75Valentin Royer

6-4 6-1#682Samir Hamza Reguig

7-5 6-3#897Maximilian Neuchrist

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MUMatthias UjvaryUjvary

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Olle WallinWallinOW

Olle Wallin carries the stronger recent form — Matthias Ujvary's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1560.2%—59.7%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1561.6%+10.8pp72.4%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1549.3%+2.4pp46.9%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/151.9+3.85.7

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.20.5 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1545.7%+4.9pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1543.3%+4.4pp38.9%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1553.3%+10.8pp64.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1551.0%—51.3%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.2%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15—59.7%

61.6%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+10.8pp72.4%

49.3%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.4pp46.9%

1.9Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+3.85.7

3.2Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.5 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

45.7%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+4.9pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

43.3%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+4.4pp38.9%

53.3%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+10.8pp64.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15—51.3%