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Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2Eva Lys #85Germany0

Sets 6-0 · 6-2Thu 3 Sept 2026, 21:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions10–0100%

Edges7–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 80 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Eva Lys

Germany

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 39. Her January 2026 knee injury recovery was reported as slower in the context of chronic spondyloarthritis; this is background context, not a current availability ruling.

Current ranking: #85
Peak ranking: #39
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 165 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 03:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreeva is a strong favorite with superior ranking, form, and serve metrics, but the moneyline offers no value.

The best betting angle is Andreeva -5.5 games at 1.80, with a 4.4-point edge. Expect a straight-set win for Andreeva, likely with a comfortable game margin.

Context

Andreeva, 19, is ranked No. 5 and has a 75.1% career win rate. Lys, 24, is ranked No. 98 and has a 58.2% career win rate.
Andreeva's recent hard-court record is 4-2, including a dominant 6-2 6-2 win over Janice Tjen in the first round. Lys is 2-3 on hard courts in her last five, with losses to Sofia Kenin and Anna Blinkova. Andreeva's superior ranking and recent results suggest she should control this matchup, though Lys's first-round win shows she can compete.
- Andreeva's last 15 hard-court record: 4-2 (66.7% win rate).
- Lys's last 15 hard-court record: 2-3 (40% win rate).
- Andreeva beat Janice Tjen 6-2 6-2 in the first round; Lys beat Gabriela Andrea Knutson 6-3 6-3.
Lys's career break point save rate is not available, but her recent numbers show a clear weakness. Andreeva's return game is a key weapon.
Lys has faced 138 break points in her last 15 matches and saved only 66 of them. Andreeva has converted 58 of 123 break points in the same span. If Andreeva applies pressure on Lys's serve, she could create multiple break opportunities and take control of the match.
- Lys's break points saved in last 15: 47.8% (66/138).
- Andreeva's break points converted in last 15: 47.2% (58/123).
Lys has played 15 matches in the last three months, but her retirement against Udvardy is a recent physical concern.
Lys retired at 2-0 down in the third set against Udvardy on August 3. She has since played three matches, winning one and losing two, so she appears to have recovered. However, any lingering issue could affect her endurance in a best-of-three match against a top-5 opponent.
- Lys retired against Panna Udvardy on 2026-08-03 (score: 2-6 7-6(3) 2-0 ret.).
- Lys has played three matches since the retirement, winning one and losing two.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mirra Andreeva

1.10fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Andreeva's superior ranking, recent form, and serve/return metrics make her a strong favorite, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mirra Andreeva

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Andreeva's strong first-set record and Lys's slow starts support Andreeva taking the opener.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Andreeva's straight-set tendency and Lys's poor form support a straight-set result, but the odds are too short relative to the model estimate.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Andreeva's straight-set tendency and Lys's poor form support a 2-0 scoreline, but the odds are too short relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 Total GameswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 9.5

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Andreeva often starts fast, and Lys has been broken early in several matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Andreeva's superior recent form, ranking, and serve/return metrics make her a strong favorite on hard court.
- Andreeva last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Lys 5-10 (33.3%)
- Andreeva hard-court last 15 record 4-2 (66.7%), Lys 2-3 (40%)
- Andreeva ranking 5 vs Lys 98
- Andreeva first-serve points won 69.2% vs Lys 58.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance82%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Andreeva's dominant wins and Lys's struggles against top players point to a relatively short match.
- Andreeva average games per match last 15: 18.9
- Lys average games per match last 15: 22.0
- Andreeva won 6-2 6-2 in last meeting vs Tjen, Lys won 6-3 6-3
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's ability to win by large margins against weaker opponents supports a -4.5 game handicap.
- Andreeva average games won per match last 15: 11.5
- Lys average games lost per match last 15: 11.7
- Andreeva won 12-4, 12-1, 12-2 in recent hard matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMirra Andreeva -4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Andreeva often starts fast, and Lys has been broken early in several matches.
- Andreeva first-set average games last 5 hard matches: 8.2
- Lys first-set average games last 5 hard matches: 9.4
- Andreeva won first set 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 in recent hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Andreeva maintains pressure, the second set could also be one-sided.
- Andreeva second-set average games last 5 hard matches: 8.6
- Lys second-set average games last 5 hard matches: 9.2
- Andreeva won second set 6-2, 6-0, 6-2 in recent hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Andreeva's strong first-set record and Lys's slow starts support Andreeva taking the opener.
- Andreeva first-set win conversion 89% career
- Andreeva won first set in 4 of last 5 hard-court matches
- Lys lost first set in 3 of last 5 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's consistent set-winning rate across surfaces suggests she can close in straight sets.
- Andreeva sets won 72.7% overall last 15
- Andreeva hard-court sets won 69.2%
- Lys sets won 40.5% overall last 15
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Andreeva's dominance and Lys's inability to extend matches favor a straight-set result.
- Andreeva won in straight sets in 9 of last 11 wins
- Lys lost in straight sets in 7 of last 10 losses
- Andreeva hard-court sets won 69.2%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Andreeva's straight-set tendency and Lys's poor form support a 2-0 scoreline.
- Andreeva won 2-0 in 7 of last 10 wins
- Lys lost 0-2 in 6 of last 10 losses
- Andreeva hard-court record 4-2 with 3 straight-set wins
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMirra Andreeva 2-0Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's dominance and Lys's struggles suggest sets may not reach tiebreaks.
- Andreeva tiebreak win percentage 63% career
- Lys tiebreak win percentage 58% career
- Andreeva's recent matches often decided without tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, especially Lys, making over 7.5 likely.
- Andreeva double faults per match last 15: 3.1
- Lys double faults per match last 15: 4.6
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's serve can produce aces, but Lys's low ace count makes this a borderline over.
- Andreeva aces per match last 15: 3.1
- Lys aces per match last 15: 1.4
- Combined average aces per match: 4.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mirra Andreeva has fulfilled 12 of 15 win predictions, a strong 80% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 74%, with an expected 11.1 wins, so she has slightly outperformed expectations. When she won, the average probability was 77.3%, while in her three losses it dropped to 61%, indicating that her higher-confidence projections have been more dependable.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

11W 4L

6-2 6-2#36Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#36Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#46Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#33Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#57Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#29Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#82Magda Linette

6-3 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-3#11Marta Kostyuk

6-0 6-3#17Sorana Cirstea

6-3 6-2#175Jil Teichmann

6-4 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-1 6-1#133Marina Bassols Ribera

Eva Lys

5W 10L

6-3 6-3#184Gabriela Andrea Knutson

1-6 6-3 6-3#110Sofia Kenin

3-6 6-2 6-2#95Anna Blinkova

5-7 6-1 6-4#129Katarzyna Kawa

2-6 7-6(3) 2-0 ret.#68Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-1#16Diana Shnaider

7-6(6) 6-3#27Emma Navarro

6-3 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

7-6(7) 6-3#41Magdalena Frech

6-3 6-0#17Sorana Cirstea

6-3 6-0#77Petra Marcinko

6-2 3-6 6-0#63Talia Gibson

6-4 4-6 6-3#13Naomi Osaka

6-4 3-6 6-4#62Katie Boulter

6-4 6-3#54Shuai Zhang

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Eva LysLysEL

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Eva Lys's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.9%+4.7pp67.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1569.2%+10.8pp58.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.1%+7.8pp41.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.1+1.71.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.11.5 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1547.3%+3.8pp43.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1547.2%+2.2pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1562.8%+15.0pp47.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1554.4%+6.1pp48.3%

Serve · 4–1

62.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+4.7pp67.6%

69.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+10.8pp58.4%

49.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.8pp41.3%

3.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.71.4

3.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.5 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

47.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp43.5%

Pressure · 2–0

47.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp45.0%

62.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+15.0pp47.8%

Points · 1–0

54.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+6.1pp48.3%

Mirra Andreeva

Eva Lys

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 20.5

Mirra Andreeva -5.5

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva

Under 2.5

Mirra Andreeva 2-0

Under 9.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mirra Andreeva

Eva Lys

Stat Battle