ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5442Koki Matsuda #483Japan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Wed 2 Sept 2026, 18:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKoki Matsuda · 61 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Koki Matsuda

Japan

Born 31 October 2000. His 2026 activity has been concentrated on hard courts, and he reached a career-best ranking of No. 451 in August 2026.

Current ranking: #483
Peak ranking: #451 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Leong's superior hard-court form and return game give him a structural edge over Matsuda, making him a value bet at 2.10.

Matsuda's serve and propensity for long matches support over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 total aces.

Context

Leong, 551st, is a right-hander who has played most of his career on hard courts, with a 54.7% career win rate.
Leong's 70% win rate on hard courts in his last 10 matches is stronger than Matsuda's 60% over 15, and his wins over No. 288 Biryukov and No. 506 Palan show he can beat players ranked above him. Matsuda's recent wins have come mostly against lower-ranked opponents, so Leong's form looks more convincing for this matchup.
- Leong's last 10 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 3 losses (70% win rate).
- Matsuda's last 15 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 6 losses (60% win rate).
- Leong beat No. 288 Biryukov and No. 506 Palan in his last two matches.
- Matsuda's recent wins include opponents ranked 365, 897, and unranked players.
Matsuda, 483rd, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a strong serve, averaging 6.7 aces per match in his last 15.
Matsuda's serve gives him free points, but his return game is a clear weakness: he wins only 35.6% of return points, while Leong wins 43% in the same window. Leong's first-serve points won (71.5%) is similar to Matsuda's (71.9%), so the match may hinge on who can break serve more often, and Leong's better return numbers give him an edge in that department.
- Matsuda's last 15 matches: 6.7 aces per match, 71.9% first-serve points won.
- Matsuda's return points won: 35.6% in last 15 matches.
- Leong's return points won: 43% in last 15 matches.
- Leong's first-serve points won: 71.5% in last 15 matches.
Matsuda has been involved in several long battles recently, including three-set wins over Delaney, Meng, and Uesugi in his last three matches.
Matsuda's recent workload is heavier: his average match length is 124.6 minutes versus Leong's 98.8, and he has played three consecutive three-set matches. This could leave him with less energy for a second-round match against a fresher Leong, especially if the match goes the distance.
- Matsuda's last 15 matches average 124.6 minutes; Leong's average 98.8 minutes.
- Matsuda's last three matches all went three sets: wins over Delaney, Meng, and Uesugi.
- Leong's last three matches were straight-set wins, including a retirement win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Leong's superior recent hard-court form and significantly better return/break-point profile give him a structural edge over Matsuda.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: 7-3 (70%) vs 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 return points won: 43% vs 35.6%
- Last 15 break point conversion: 58.2% vs 33.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, and both players have shown the ability to extend sets, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Leong last 15 average match duration: 98.8 minutes
- Matsuda last 15 average match duration: 124.6 minutes
- Matsuda last 15 games per match: 25.5 (193+190)/15
- Leong last 15 games per match: 20.2 (173+130)/15
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's superior game-winning percentage on hard courts suggests he can cover a -2.5 game handicap against Matsuda.
- Leong last 15 games won percentage: 57.1%
- Matsuda last 15 games won percentage: 50.4%
- Leong hard-court games won percentage: 58.5%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMitsuki Wei Kang Leong -2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's strong first-set conversion rate and recent hard-court dominance suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Leong first-set win conversion career: 88%
- Matsuda first-set win conversion career: 84%
- Leong last 15 hard-court games won: 58.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's high ace count combined with Leong's moderate serving should push the total aces over 9.5 in a typical match.
- Matsuda last 15 aces per match: 6.7
- Leong last 15 aces per match: 3.1
- Combined average aces per match: 9.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a propensity for tiebreaks recently, and Matsuda's strong tiebreak record increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- Matsuda last 15 tiebreaks played: 5 in 15 matches
- Leong last 15 tiebreaks played: 4 in 15 matches
- Matsuda career tiebreak win percentage: 62%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's higher double fault rate and the pressure of a competitive match should lead to over 5.5 total double faults.
- Leong last 15 double faults per match: 3.2
- Matsuda last 15 double faults per match: 2.0
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 58.6%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 4 wins exceeded expectation. The only miss came against Dominik Palan, where the estimated probability was 58%.

Recent evidence for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Dominik Palan won

Missed

19 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

62%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·60%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

60%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·55%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

55%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

Previous match context available

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

10W 5L

7-6(3) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-4#609Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#506Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#635Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(5)#281Dan Added

3-6 6-4 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 6-2#823Arda Azkara

7-6(4) 6-3#461Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-3 6-1#1743Alberto Lim

6-3 7-6(5)#851Shintaro Imai

6-2 6-0—Kai-I Wang

Koki Matsuda

9W 6L

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#365Jake Delaney

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)—Fanming Meng

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-4#897Kaito Uesugi

6-3 6-4—Chen Hui Ho

6-3 6-4#255Hayato Matsuoka

6-4 1-6 6-2#898Gijs Brouwer

6-4 4-6 6-4#591Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)—Kerem Yilmaz

7-6(6) 6-3#556Daniil Ostapenkov

6-2 7-5#807Cem Ilkel

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#674Gabriel Debru

6-3 6-3#501Colin Sinclair

6-4 6-4#604Karan Singh

4-6 6-4 7-5#557Digvijaypratap Singh

4-6 6-0 6-1#408Omar Jasika

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Koki MatsudaMatsudaKM

Koki Matsuda carries the stronger recent form — Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In62.3%+2.2pp64.5%

1st Serve Won71.5%—71.9%

2nd Serve Won48.9%—48.9%

Aces / Match3.1+3.66.7

Double Faults / Match3.21.2 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.0%+7.4pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted58.2%+24.5pp33.7%

Break Pts Saved62.4%+11.8pp74.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+3.2pp49.9%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

62.3%1st Serve In+2.2pp64.5%

71.5%1st Serve Won—71.9%

48.9%2nd Serve Won—48.9%

3.1Aces / Match+3.66.7

3.2Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

43.0%Return Pts Won+7.4pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

58.2%Break Pts Converted+24.5pp33.7%

62.4%Break Pts Saved+11.8pp74.2%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+3.2pp49.9%