ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Thiago Seyboth Wild #202Brazil2Martin Krumich #255Czechia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Tue 1 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–183%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 53 places

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 58 in May 2024. Official ITF data lists clay and hard courts as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Krumich is a 23-year-old Czech right-hander. ITF records list clay as his preferred surface and No. 268 as his career-high ATP singles ranking, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #268 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Seyboth Wild is favored on clay with superior recent form and serve stats.

Betting value is small on Seyboth Wild to win the match and first set. Krumich's double faults and straight-set losses make him vulnerable, but the edge is limited.

Context

Seyboth Wild, ranked 198, is a clay-court specialist with 236 career clay wins and a 76.9% win rate on clay in his last 13 matches.
Krumich, ranked 262, has a 53.3% win rate in his last 15 matches, all on clay, but his losses often come against opponents ranked above him. Seyboth Wild's recent clay dominance and higher break-point conversion rate (54.8% vs 35.3%) suggest he can control rallies and pressure Krumich's serve, though Krumich's return points won (42.7%) is slightly better than Seyboth Wild's (41.9%).
- Seyboth Wild last 15 on clay: 10-3 record, 76.9% win rate, 54.8% break points converted.
- Krumich last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 53.3% win rate, 35.3% break points converted.
- Krumich's recent losses include defeats to players ranked 147, 177, 234, and 292.
Krumich's first-serve percentage is 54.8% in his last 15 matches, and he has converted only 35.3% of break points.
Seyboth Wild wins 73.2% of first-serve points and saves 67.1% of break points, so he is likely to hold serve more comfortably. Krumich's second-serve points won (47.5%) is also below Seyboth Wild's (53.4%), giving the Brazilian an edge in longer exchanges.
- Krumich first-serve in: 54.8% (last 15 matches).
- Krumich break points converted: 35.3% (53/150).
- Seyboth Wild first-serve points won: 73.2%; break points saved: 67.1%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Seyboth Wild's stronger recent clay form and higher point-winning percentage give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%) vs Krumich 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: 10-3 (76.9%) vs Krumich 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 total points won: 54.3% vs 51.0%
- Career clay wins: 236 vs 177
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive return stats and Krumich's longer matches suggest a moderately high total games count.
- Seyboth Wild last 15 average games per match: 20.3
- Krumich last 15 average games per match: 22.1
- Both players have similar return points won percentages (41.9% vs 42.7%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Seyboth Wild's superior serve protection and break point saving should help him start strongly.
- Seyboth Wild first set win conversion career: 83% vs Krumich 87%
- Seyboth Wild last 15 first serve points won: 73.2% vs Krumich 71.0%
- Seyboth Wild last 15 break points saved: 67.1% vs Krumich 50.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak frequency in recent matches suggests a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Seyboth Wild career tiebreak win percentage: 48%
- Krumich career tiebreak win percentage: 53%
- Seyboth Wild last 15 matches: only 2 tiebreaks in 33 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's high double fault rate pushes the combined total near the line, favoring over.
- Krumich last 15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Seyboth Wild last 15 double faults per match: 1.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages slightly exceed the line, making over 11.5 a reasonable lean.
- Seyboth Wild last 15 aces per match: 7.6
- Krumich last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Combined average aces per match: 11.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Thiago Seyboth Wild has been highly reliable when projected to win

Thiago Seyboth Wild has fulfilled 12 of 15 recent win projections, an 80% success rate. His average estimated probability was 66.2%, with an expected 9.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating he has outperformed expectations. All three missed projections resulted in losses, with no draws or wins by the opponent.

Recent evidence for Thiago Seyboth Wild15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Missed

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

26 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

25 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

24 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

Thiago Seyboth Wild

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-2 6-1#223Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-2#186Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-4#391Andrej Martin

6-4 6-3#251Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-4 6-3#407Dylan Dietrich

6-1 7-6(1)#272Philip Henning

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#208Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#175Zdenek Kolar

5-7 6-4 6-3#547Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-3 7-5#505Peter Makk

6-4 6-3#134Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-4#717Vincent Marysko

6-1 6-2—Oliver Majdandzic

6-2 6-2#321Gonzalo Villanueva

Martin Krumich

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#292Sandro Kopp

4-6 6-4 6-1#621Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#268Dominic Stricker

2-6 6-4 6-4#433Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-2#234Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#171Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-4 6-2#272Philip Henning

6-3 6-7(7) 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-3#207Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-2#236Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-4#490Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-3#393Samuele Pieri

6-3 3-6 6-3#257Felix Balshaw

6-4 6-2#339Marko Topo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TWThiago Seyboth WildWild

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Martin KrumichKrumichMK

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Martin Krumich's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In64.8%+10.0pp54.8%

1st Serve Won73.2%+2.2pp71.0%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+5.9pp47.5%

Aces / Match7.6+3.34.3

Double Faults / Match1.31.6 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.9%+0.8pp42.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted54.2%+18.9pp35.3%

Break Pts Saved67.1%+17.1pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.3%+3.3pp51.0%

Serve · 5–0

64.8%1st Serve In+10.0pp54.8%

73.2%1st Serve Won+2.2pp71.0%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp47.5%

7.6Aces / Match+3.34.3

1.3Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

41.9%Return Pts Won+0.8pp42.7%

Pressure · 2–0

54.2%Break Pts Converted+18.9pp35.3%

67.1%Break Pts Saved+17.1pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

54.3%Total Pts Won+3.3pp51.0%