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Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia2Masamichi Imamura #415Japan1

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 6-4Tue 1 Sept 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 255 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Masamichi Imamura

Japan

Structured player data lists Imamura at No. 415 for this match. No reliable public career-profile detail was confirmed.

Current ranking: #415
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic is favored due to superior ranking and hard-court form, but the odds are slightly short.

Avoid the first-set market as Tomic has struggled early recently, and consider the over 21.5 total games as a value play.

Context

Tomic, 33, is a former world No. 17 now ranked 179 and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand. He has a 75% win rate on hard courts in his last 12 matches.
His recent hard-court results are strong, but the level of opposition has been mixed: wins over Karen Khachanov and Mark Lajal are notable, while losses to Lloyd Harris and Cameron Norrie show he can struggle against higher-ranked players. Imamura is ranked 399, so Tomic should have a ranking edge, but his form is not dominant enough to guarantee a straightforward win.
- Tomic's last 15 hard-court record is 9-3 (75%).
- He beat Karen Khachanov (ranked 49) and Mark Lajal (152), but lost to Lloyd Harris (139) and Cameron Norrie (33).
- His most recent match was a three-set loss to Lloyd Harris on August 25.
Tomic, 33, is the higher-ranked player at No. 179 and has won 9 of his last 12 hard-court matches. He recently won the Lincoln Challenger after saying he might make 2026 his final season.
That retirement talk is now behind him, and he has kept playing into this event. His continued presence removes any doubt about his commitment for this match, though it does not change his recent form or the challenge from Imamura.
- Tomic described reconsidering retirement plans after winning the Lincoln Challenger on 20 July 2026.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Aug 2026, 03:28 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — Tomic wins biggest title since 2018www.atptour.com · 20 Jul 2026
Imamura, 24, is ranked 399 and has a career win rate of 58.4%. He has played mostly on hard courts, where he has a 57.1% win rate in his last 14 matches.
His recent results show a pattern: he beats lower-ranked players but loses decisively to those above 300, such as 6-1 6-1 to Yu Hsiou Hsu and 6-2 6-1 to Sergey Fomin. Tomic is ranked 179, so Imamura will need to raise his level significantly to compete.
- Imamura's last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%).
- He lost 6-1 6-1 to Yu Hsiou Hsu (ranked 297) and 6-2 6-1 to Sergey Fomin (291).
- His only win over a top-200 player in this stretch was against Antoine Ghibaudo (353).
The two players met once before, in the first round of a Challenger event in 2025.
Imamura won that match in three sets, showing he can handle Tomic's game on hard courts. However, that was over a year ago and both players' form has changed, so the result may not be directly predictive.
- H2H: Imamura leads 1-0, winning 6-2 3-6 6-2 on hard court in February 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bernard Tomic

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior recent hard-court form and ranking edge outweigh Imamura's lone H2H win from over a year ago.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior serve and recent hard-court form give him an edge, but the odds overprice his probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Tomic's superior recent hard-court form and ranking edge outweigh Imamura's lone H2H win from over a year ago.
- Tomic last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Imamura 8-7 (53.3%)
- Tomic hard-court last 15 record 9-3 (75%), Imamura 8-6 (57.1%)
- Tomic ranking 179 vs Imamura 399
- H2H: Imamura won their only meeting in Feb 2025, but Tomic's recent form is stronger
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline rallies and Tomic's tendency to play longer matches support a higher total games line.
- Tomic last 15 average 22.4 games per match, Imamura 19.4
- Tomic last 15 hard-court average 23.8 games per match
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50-52%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Tomic's stronger serve and recent hard-court dominance make him likely to take the opening set.
- Tomic first-set win conversion career 85%, Imamura 90%
- Tomic last 15 hard-court first-serve points won 73.4%, Imamura 66.9%
- Tomic last 15 hard-court return points won 38.7%, Imamura 40.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency to play three-set matches, and their only H2H went the distance.
- Tomic last 15: 7 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Imamura last 15: 5 of 15 matches went to three sets
- H2H match went to three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making under 4.5 likely.
- Tomic averages 2.4 double faults per match on hard courts in last 15
- Imamura averages 1.4 double faults per match on hard courts in last 15
- Combined average is 3.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's serve is a major weapon, and his ace rate alone could push the total over 7.5.
- Tomic averages 5.4 aces per match on hard courts in last 15
- Imamura averages only 1.2 aces per match on hard courts in last 15
- Tomic's career ace count 5542 in 886 matches (6.3 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Bernard Tomic has been reliable when projected to win

Bernard Tomic has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 67.4% and an expected 4.7 fulfilled predictions. His missed predictions occurred at higher probabilities (70% average) than his matched ones (66.4%), suggesting that his losses came when confidence was slightly higher. The current prediction of 68% sits within his historical range of 58% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Bernard Tomic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Cameron Norrie won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

72%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Conor Gannon won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 3-6 6-2Bernard Tomic#179vMasamichi Imamura#399Feb 4, 2025

1 total meetings

Bernard Tomic

10W 5L

6-2 5-7 6-2#139Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#342Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#33Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#49Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#465Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#510Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#182Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#152Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#444Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#758Matthew Forbes

7-6(2) 6-4#242James McCabe

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#241Darwin Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-2#93Adam Walton

6-2 6-3#215Braden Shick

6-4 6-4#105Christopher O'Connell

Masamichi Imamura

8W 7L

6-1 6-1#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-1 6-0—Noritaka Koizumi

3-6 6-0 10-2#572Hyeon Chung

6-4 6-1#684Shinji Hazawa

6-2 6-1#291Sergey Fomin

6-3 6-4#604Erik Arutiunian

7-6(3) 6-3#353Antoine Ghibaudo

6-1 6-1#655Roger Pascual Ferra

7-5 6-1#766Darian King

6-4 3-6 6-1#781James Tracy

6-4 7-6(6)#242James McCabe

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#316Daniel Milavsky

6-4 6-1#414Andrew Fenty

6-3 6-3#456Quinn Vandecasteele

6-1 6-4#358Jake Delaney

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Masamichi ImamuraImamuraMI

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Masamichi Imamura's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.7%—61.1%

1st Serve Won72.7%+6.3pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+2.0pp50.9%

Aces / Match5.1+3.61.5

Double Faults / Match2.51.1 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.3%+2.4pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.8%+8.9pp50.7%

Break Pts Saved57.9%+2.3pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.2pp50.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.7%1st Serve In—61.1%

72.7%1st Serve Won+6.3pp66.4%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp50.9%

5.1Aces / Match+3.61.5

2.5Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won+2.4pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

41.8%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp50.7%

57.9%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.1%