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Predictions graded

Mia Ristic #219Serbia0Himeno Sakatsume #136Japan2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Fri 28 Aug 2026, 15:41 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHimeno Sakatsume · 83 places

Mia Ristic

Serbia

Ristic is a 20-year-old Serbian right-hander. ITF lists hard courts as her preferred surface; WTA ranking history showed her at No. 215 in early August 2026.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: #215
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Himeno Sakatsume

Japan

Japanese right-hander born 3 August 2001. Official WTA and her player website list her as right-handed; reliable public sources identify a career-best ranking of No. 121.

Current ranking: #136
Peak ranking: #121
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 158 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Ristic's dominant recent form (14-1) and superior return metrics make her the likely winner despite Sakatsume's ranking edge.

The best value is Ristic to win at 2.50, with a 22-point edge. Avoid the game handicap and set betting due to surface uncertainty.

Context

Ristic last15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%), but by surface: Clay 12-1, Hard 2-0.
- Her hard-court total points won is 52.7% vs 54.9% on clay.
- Her hard-court return points won is 43.8% vs 50.9% on clay.
- The two hard-court wins came against opponents ranked 229 and 263.
Sakatsume last15 overall double faults per match: 2.2 (31 in 14 matches).
- Sakatsume last15 hard court double faults per match: 3.4 (24 in 7 matches).
- Ristic last15 double faults per match: 0.8 overall, 1.5 on hard courts.
- Sakatsume's second serve points won on hard courts is only 40.9%.
Ristic beat Akli 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 on 24 August.
- The match lasted 29 games, longer than her average hard-court match duration of 108 minutes.
- Sakatsume won her opener in straight sets, 6-3, 6-1, with less court time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Ristic's dominant recent form and superior return/point metrics outweigh Sakatsume's ranking edge, making her the likely winner.
- Ristic last15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%), Sakatsume 6-9 (40%)
- Ristic last15 total points won 54.6%, Sakatsume 47.9%
- Ristic last15 return points won 49.9%, Sakatsume 41.5%
- Ristic ranking 195, Sakatsume 144 but Ristic form window is far stronger
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMia RisticEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show competitive recent matches with several three-setters, suggesting a total above 20.5 games is plausible.
- Ristic last15 average duration 115 min, Sakatsume 102.8 min
- Ristic last15 games per match avg 21.3, Sakatsume 21.9
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Ristic's superior recent form and point dominance should carry into the opening set.
- Ristic last15 first set win conversion 85% career, Sakatsume 88% career
- Ristic last15 overall record 14-1, Sakatsume 6-9
- Ristic last15 total points won 54.6%, Sakatsume 47.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMia RisticEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, so total aces are likely to stay under 4.5.
- Ristic last15 aces per match 1.8, Sakatsume 0.9
- Ristic career aces 332 in 287 matches (1.16 avg), Sakatsume 509 in 436 (1.17 avg)
- Both players have low ace rates on hard courts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are relatively rare in their recent matches, making a tiebreak-free match more likely.
- Ristic career tiebreak win rate 60%, Sakatsume 40%
- Ristic last15 has 2 tiebreaks in 15 matches, Sakatsume 3 in 15
- Both players tend to win sets without tiebreaks in recent form
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sakatsume's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, should push the combined total over 3.5.
- Sakatsume last15 double faults per match 2.2, Ristic 0.8
- Sakatsume last15 hard court double faults per match 3.4
- Ristic last15 hard court double faults per match 1.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Mia Ristic has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Mia Ristic has fulfilled 4 of 6 recent win projections, a 67% fulfilment rate. Her average estimated probability was 65%, with an expected 3.9 fulfilled predictions, so she has performed close to expectation. The two misses both came as losses, and her current 62% probability sits within her historical range of 58-78%.

Recent evidence for Mia Ristic6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#153Laura Samson2-1#224Mia Ristic

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#153Laura Samson2-1#224Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic to win

62%probability

Laura Samson won

Missed

30 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#450Yelyzaveta Kotliar1-2#224Mia Ristic

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·78%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#450Yelyzaveta Kotliar1-2#224Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic to win

78%probability

Mia Ristic won

Matched

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#224Mia Ristic2-0#106Darja Semenistaja

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#224Mia Ristic2-0#106Darja Semenistaja

Mia Ristic to win

65%probability

Mia Ristic won

Matched

13 Jul·WTA Kitzbuhel

#266Mia Ristic2-0#244Mia Pohankova

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Kitzbuhel

#266Mia Ristic2-0#244Mia Pohankova

Mia Ristic to win

62%probability

Mia Ristic won

Matched

17 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1#272Mia Ristic

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·58%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1#272Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic to win

58%probability

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah won

Missed

Previous match context available

Mia Ristic

14W 1L

6-1 6-3#229Francisca Jorge 6-3 1-6 6-4#263Ayana Akli

6-0 7-6(4)#299Rositsa Dencheva

5-7 7-5 6-4#879Matilde Paoletti

3-6 6-3 7-6(2)#300Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-2#472Zhibek Kulambayeva

6-1 6-1—Havah Kaur Kaler

7-6(0) 4-6 6-2#116Laura Samson

2-6 6-2 7-6(4)#356Yelyzaveta Kotliar

6-2 6-3#109Darja Semenistaja

6-3 6-3#189Nuria Brancaccio

6-2 6-3#330Gabriela Ce

6-1 6-3#517Viola Turini

6-0 6-4#438Tatiana Pieri

6-3 6-2#574Gaia Maduzzi

Himeno Sakatsume

6W 9L

5-7 6-2 6-3#149Tyra Caterina Grant 6-3 6-1#158Jazmin Ortenzi

3-6 6-3 6-2#127Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-4#99Moyuka Uchijima

6-2 6-2#167Mai Hontama

7-6(5) 6-2#381Ariana Arseneault

2-6 6-3 7-5#626Hong Yi Cody Wong

5-7 6-1 6-1#264Fiona Crawley

7-5 4-6 7-6(8)#264Fiona Crawley

7-5 6-2#105Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-3 6-3#235Alicia Dudeney

6-2 7-6(2)#274Mika Stojsavljevic

6-4 6-3#235Alicia Dudeney

6-4 6-3#62Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 6-1#186Elena Pridankina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMia RisticRistic

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Himeno SakatsumeSakatsumeHS

Mia Ristic carries the stronger recent form — Himeno Sakatsume's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1565.8%+2.5pp68.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1563.7%+5.2pp58.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.8%+5.7pp45.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.8+0.90.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.81.4 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.9%+8.4pp41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1551.6%+6.6pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1561.4%+12.3pp49.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1554.6%+6.7pp47.9%

Serve · 4–1

65.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.5pp68.3%

63.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.2pp58.5%

50.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp45.1%

1.8Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.90.9

0.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.4 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

49.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+8.4pp41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

51.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+6.6pp45.0%

61.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+12.3pp49.1%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.7pp47.9%