Laura Samson #153Czechia22 – 1Mia Ristic #224Serbia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' tendency for three-setters and competitive recent matches, the total games are likely to exceed 20.5.

• Samson's last 15 matches average 21.5 games per match (322 games / 15 matches).
• Ristic's last 15 matches average 19.9 games per match (299 games / 15 matches).
• Both players have had multiple three-set matches recently: Samson 5 of last 15, Ristic 4 of last 15.
• Samson's clay matches average 21.2 games, Ristic's 19.9, but the competitive nature of this matchup suggests a closer contest.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Samson is likely to keep the match competitive, and with a +3.5 game handicap, she should cover based on her recent scoring output.

• Samson's average games won per match in her last 15 is 11.0 (165/15), while Ristic's is 12.0 (180/15).
• In their H2H, Ristic won 12-0, but that was an outlier; Samson is much improved since 2023.
• Samson's recent clay matches show she can keep it close: she won 12 games vs. Breaz, 18 vs. Pigossi, and 16 vs. Radivojevic.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in competitive first sets recently, and the matchup is expected to be close, pushing the first set over 8.5 games.

• Samson's first sets in her last 15 matches average 9.1 games (excluding retirements).
• Ristic's first sets average 8.5 games.
• In their H2H, the first set was 6-0, but current form suggests a tighter contest.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace counts, especially on clay, making under 3.5 total aces highly likely.

• Samson averages 1.7 aces per match in her last 15, Ristic averages 1.3.
• Combined, they average 3.0 aces per match (1.7 + 1.3).
• On clay, Samson averages 1.5 aces, Ristic 1.3, so the surface reduces ace potential.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Samson's high double fault count alone pushes the combined total over 6.5, even with Ristic's low rate.

• Samson averages 5.5 double faults per match in her last 15, Ristic averages 1.3.
• Combined average is 6.8 double faults per match.
• Samson's high double fault rate (5.5 per match) is consistent on clay (5.0 per match).