RomaniaWTA Targu MuresFinished

Predictions graded

Yelyzaveta Kotliar #450Ukraine1Mia Ristic #224Serbia2

Sets 6-2 · 2-6 · 6-7Thu 30 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMia Ristic · 226 places

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Ukraine

The 19-year-old Ukrainian is ranked No. 450 with a career high of No. 440. Her recorded career schedule and wins are concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #450
Peak ranking: #440 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Mia Ristic

Serbia

The 20-year-old Serbian is currently at her career-high ranking of No. 224 and plays right-handed. Her recorded match history is predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #224
Peak ranking: #224
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Mia Ristic's dominant clay form, 3-0 H2H record, and superior serve/return stats make her a strong favorite over Yelyzaveta Kotliar, who is fatigued from three-set qualifying battles.

The best value lies in the total games under 19.5, while the short odds on Ristic 2-0 and match winner offer no edge.

Context

Kotliar played on July 26, 27, and 28, winning 5-7 6-2 6-2, 6-4 6-0, and 5-7 6-3 6-2.
- Two of those wins required comebacks from a set down, adding mental and physical strain.
- This will be her fourth match in five days, while Ristic has had a day off since her last match.
Ristic's last six wins: 6-2 6-3, 6-3 6-3, 6-1 6-3, 6-2 6-3, 6-0 6-4, 6-3 6-2.
- She beat No. 106 Darja Semenistaja 6-2 6-3 in the first round.
- None of these matches went to a deciding set, keeping her average match duration low at 95.3 minutes.
H2H scores: 6-1 6-3, 6-2 6-1, 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(2).
- Ristic won 63% of first-serve points and 54% of second-serve points in their meetings, compared to Kotliar's 53% and 39%.
- Kotliar has served 19 double faults across the three matches, averaging 6.3 per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mia Ristic

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Ristic's 3-0 H2H dominance, superior last-15 clay stats, and efficient straight-set wins support a high probability despite the short odds.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mia Ristic

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Ristic's near-perfect first-set record in recent matches and H2H makes her a heavy favorite to win set 1.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Ristic's dominant H2H, superior recent form, and significant serve/return structural advantages on clay make her a strong favorite.
- Ristic leads H2H 3-0, all on clay, with dominant scores (6-1 6-3, 6-2 6-1, 6-7 6-3 7-6).
- Ristic's last 15 clay record: 11-4 (73.3%), Kotliar: 8-7 (53.3%).
- Ristic's recent form: 6 straight-set wins in last 7 matches, including over #106 Semenistaja; Kotliar had three 3-set battles in qualifiers.
- Ristic's serve/return edge: 66% first-serve points won vs Kotliar's 59%, 52% second-serve points won vs 38%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMia RisticEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's efficient straight-set wins and H2H history of low-game matches support a total under 20.5 games.
- Ristic's last 6 wins averaged 17.3 games per match; Kotliar's last 3 wins averaged 30.3 games.
- H2H matches averaged 19.3 games, with two under 20.5.
- Ristic's games-won percentage (59.7%) vs Kotliar's (51.5%) suggests a one-sided match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's trend of dominant first sets and Kotliar's low first-set win rate suggest a quick set under 9.5 games.
- Ristic's last 6 first sets: 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0, 6-3 (avg 8.2 games).
- H2H first sets: 6-1, 6-2, 7-6 (two under 9.5).
- Kotliar's first-set points won in last 15: 48.6%, indicating vulnerability.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's consistent large-margin wins and Kotliar's narrow victories support a -4.5 handicap.
- Ristic's average game margin in last 6 wins: +6.8 games.
- Kotliar's average game margin in last 3 wins: +1.3 games.
- H2H: Ristic covered -4.5 in 2 of 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMia Ristic -4.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Ristic's near-perfect first-set record in recent matches and H2H makes her a heavy favorite to win set 1.
- Ristic won first set in 13 of last 15 matches; Kotliar lost first set in 7 of last 15.
- H2H: Ristic won first set in all 3 meetings.
- Ristic's first-set win conversion rate (85% career) vs Kotliar's (87%) is similar, but Ristic's recent first-set dominance is stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMia RisticEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Ristic's strong second-set record and H2H dominance make her the clear favorite to win set 2.
- Ristic won second set in 12 of last 15 matches; Kotliar lost second set in 7 of last 15.
- H2H: Ristic won second set in all 3 meetings.
- Ristic's second-set points won: 54.4% vs Kotliar's 50%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMia RisticEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ristic's straight-set dominance in recent form and H2H, combined with Kotliar's lower break-point resilience, points to a 2-0 win.
- Ristic won 10 of last 11 matches in straight sets; Kotliar dropped sets in 7 of last 15.
- H2H: Ristic won 2 of 3 meetings in straight sets.
- Ristic's break-point save rate (59.3%) far exceeds Kotliar's (49.3%), reducing Kotliar's comeback chances.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMia Ristic 2-0Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's straight-set wins and low tiebreak frequency in recent matches make a tiebreak unlikely.
- Ristic's last 15 matches: 1 tiebreak; Kotliar's last 15: 4 tiebreaks.
- H2H: 1 tiebreak in 3 matches.
- Ristic's dominant set scores reduce tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar's extremely high double-fault rate alone pushes the total over 9.5, even with Ristic's low count.
- Kotliar averages 8.5 double faults per match (last 15); Ristic averages 1.3.
- Combined average: 9.8 double faults per match.
- H2H: Kotliar had 19 double faults in 3 matches (avg 6.3), but recent form shows higher.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 9.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, making under 2.5 total aces likely.
- Ristic averages 1.1 aces per match (last 15); Kotliar averages 0.4.
- Combined average aces per match: 1.5.
- H2H: total aces in 3 matches: 5 (avg 1.7).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Mia Ristic has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mia Ristic has fulfilled 3 of 4 win predictions. The average estimated probability in those matches was 62.5%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so she has outperformed expectations. The only miss came as an away underdog at 58% probability, while all three home wins were at 62–65%.

Recent evidence for Mia Ristic4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#224Mia Ristic2-0#106Darja Semenistaja

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#224Mia Ristic2-0#106Darja Semenistaja

Mia Ristic to win

65%probability

Mia Ristic won

Matched

13 Jul·WTA Kitzbuhel

#266Mia Ristic2-0#244Mia Pohankova

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Kitzbuhel

#266Mia Ristic2-0#244Mia Pohankova

Mia Ristic to win

62%probability

Mia Ristic won

Matched

17 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1#272Mia Ristic

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·58%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1#272Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic to win

58%probability

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah won

Missed

14 Jun·WTA Brescia

#268Mia Ristic2-0#452Verena Meliss

BetBugsMia Ristic to win·65%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#268Mia Ristic2-0#452Verena Meliss

Mia Ristic to win

65%probability

Mia Ristic won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-3 (3 meetings)

L6-1 6-3Yelyzaveta Kotliar#450vMia Ristic#224Aug 28, 2025

L6-2 6-1Yelyzaveta Kotliar#450vMia Ristic#224Aug 21, 2025

L6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(2)Yelyzaveta Kotliar#450vMia Ristic#224Jun 16, 2025

Mia Ristic dominates (3 meetings)3 total meetings

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

8W 7L

5-7 6-3 6-2#341Dalila Spiteri

6-4 6-0#467Andreea Prisacariu

5-7 6-2 6-2#388Alessandra Mazzola

7-6(0) 7-6(6)#296Mina Hodzic

6-3 6-0#276Federica Urgesi

6-3 5-7 6-3#418Amandine Hesse

6-4 6-4#97Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-4 6-3#827Liv Boulard

3-6 6-3 6-0#894Tayisiya Morderger

5-7 6-2 6-4#210Jennifer Ruggeri

7-6(2) 6-4#432Maria Sara Popa

7-6(4) 6-2#146Teodora Kostovic

2-0 ret.#816Julia Stamatova

7-5 7-5#829Laetitia Pulchartova

5-7 6-2 7-6(1)#53Petra Marcinko

Mia Ristic

11W 4L

6-2 6-3#106Darja Semenistaja

6-3 6-3#167Nuria Brancaccio

6-1 6-3#504Viola Turini

6-2 6-3#304Gabriela Ce

6-0 6-4#414Tatiana Pieri

6-3 6-2#594Gaia Maduzzi

6-4 2-6 6-2#209Erika Andreeva

6-3 7-5#244Mia Pohankova

6-2 6-3#430Alena Kovackova

6-1 6-1#325Jessica Pieri

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#170Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

7-5 3-6 6-4#326Deborah Chiesa

6-2 6-3#309Noemi Basiletti

6-0 6-2#520Verena Meliss

6-4 6-4#161Elina Avanesyan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YKYelyzaveta KotliarKotliar

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Mia RisticRisticMR

Mia Ristic carries the stronger recent form — Yelyzaveta Kotliar's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In58.4%+5.8pp64.2%

1st Serve Won59.0%+7.0pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won38.2%+13.8pp52.0%

Aces / Match0.4+0.71.1

Double Faults / Match8.57.2 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.6%+2.0pp47.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted51.9%+1.3pp53.2%

Break Pts Saved49.3%+10.0pp59.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+4.4pp54.4%

Serve · 0–5

58.4%1st Serve In+5.8pp64.2%

59.0%1st Serve Won+7.0pp66.0%

38.2%2nd Serve Won+13.8pp52.0%

0.4Aces / Match+0.71.1

8.5Double Faults / Match7.2 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

49.6%Return Pts Won+2.0pp47.6%

Pressure · 0–2

51.9%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp53.2%

49.3%Break Pts Saved+10.0pp59.3%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+4.4pp54.4%

Yelyzaveta Kotliar #450Ukraine1Mia Ristic #224Serbia2

Player Profiles

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Mia Ristic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 19.5

Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Mia Ristic 2-0 @ 1.50

Mia Ristic has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Mia Ristic

Stat Battle