United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Darja Semenistaja #1120Storm Hunter #174Australia2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Fri 28 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDarja Semenistaja · 62 places

Darja Semenistaja

Latvian left-hander, born 16 September 2002. Official player data lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 87.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #87
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 169 cm

Storm Hunter

Australia

The supplied player data lists Hunter at No. 174 in singles, left-handed, and 166 cm. She is also identified as a former world No. 1 doubles player.

Current ranking: #174
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 166 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Storm Hunter is favored over Darja Semenistaja based on superior hard-court form and serve effectiveness, but the match is expected to be competitive.

The best betting value is on over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in set 1, while the match winner market offers no edge.

Context

On 26 August, Semenistaja defeated Kinoshita 6-2, 7-5 in US Open qualifying.
- Before that win, she had lost seven consecutive matches.
- Her last-15 record is 6-9 with only 46.0% games won.
Hunter's 2026 hard-court record is 12-6 (67%), compared to Semenistaja's 8-8 (50%).
- Hunter wins 64.0% of first-serve points in her last 15 matches, while Semenistaja wins 55.7%.
- Hunter's last-15 hard-court sample is small (3-2), but she has won 54.1% of games on hard.
Semenistaja's last-15 hard-court record is 2-0, but only 2 matches tracked.
- Her overall last-15 record is 6-9, with most matches on clay and grass.
- Her hard-court first-serve points won is 69.2% in 1 tracked match, but the sample is too small to rely on.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Storm Hunter

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Hunter's stronger hard-court surface fit and slightly better recent overall form give her the edge in this qualifying match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Hunter's stronger hard-court surface fit and slightly better recent overall form give her the edge in this qualifying match.
- Hunter has won 12 of 18 hard-court matches in 2026 (67%), while Semenistaja is 8-8 on hard in 2026.
- Hunter's last-15 hard-court record is 3-2 with 54.1% games won; Semenistaja is 2-0 on hard in last 15 but only 2 matches tracked.
- Hunter's overall last-15 record is 7-8 vs Semenistaja's 6-9, with Hunter winning 49.2% of games vs 46.0%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStorm HunterEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting a total games over 21.5.
- Semenistaja's last-15 matches average 23.2 games per match (348 games / 15 matches).
- Hunter's last-15 matches average 25.5 games per match (382 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently: Semenistaja 8 of last 15, Hunter 7 of last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent set scores and tiebreak tendencies.
- Semenistaja's last-15 set 1 average is 9.9 games (148 games / 15 sets).
- Hunter's last-15 set 1 average is 10.1 games (151 games / 15 sets).
- Both players have played tiebreaks in recent sets: Semenistaja 2 in last 15, Hunter 3 in last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hunter's superior first-serve effectiveness on hard courts should help her start strongly in set 1.
- Hunter has won 60% of her last 5 hard-court matches, while Semenistaja has won both of her last 2 hard-court matches.
- Hunter's first-set win conversion is 83% career, Semenistaja's is 89%.
- Hunter's last-15 first-serve points won is 64.0% vs Semenistaja's 55.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonStorm HunterEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for three-set matches, the match going over 2.5 sets is a coin flip.
- Semenistaja has gone to three sets in 8 of her last 15 matches (53%).
- Hunter has gone to three sets in 7 of her last 15 matches (47%).
- Combined, 50% of their recent matches have gone the distance.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, so total aces are likely to stay under 5.5.
- Semenistaja averages 1.3 aces per match in last 15, with 0 aces in her 1 hard-court match tracked.
- Hunter averages 1.7 aces per match in last 15, with 1.5 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined expected aces: 1.3 + 1.7 = 3.0, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hunter's high double fault rate is the primary driver for the over on total double faults.
- Hunter averages 4.9 double faults per match in last 15, including 4.5 on hard.
- Semenistaja averages 0.9 double faults per match in last 15, with 0 in her 1 hard-court match tracked.
- Combined expected double faults: 4.9 + 0.9 = 5.8, just over 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W5-7 7-6(6) 6-2Darja Semenistaja#109vStorm Hunter#169Feb 11, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Darja Semenistaja

6W 9L

7-6(5) 6-4#190Alexandra Shubladze 6-2 7-5#223Hayu Kinoshita

7-6(6) 4-6 5-3 ret.#432Denislava Glushkova

6-2 6-3#195Mia Ristic

3-6 6-3 6-2#86Sinja Kraus

6-1 4-6 6-1#147Julia Riera

6-2 2-6 6-2#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-3 3-6 6-3#81Antonia Ruzic

6-4 6-2#192Anastasia Gasanova

6-4 1-6 6-2#227Nao Hibino

7-6(2) 1-6 7-5#207Anna Siskova

6-2 7-5#116Laura Samson

6-3 2-6 7-5#133Marina Bassols Ribera

6-2 6-3#92Maria Timofeeva

6-1 6-2#159Elina Avanesyan

Storm Hunter

7W 8L

4-6 7-6(6) 6-0#179Yeon Woo Ku 6-3 6-0#134Maddison Inglis

7-5 7-5#58Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

5-7 6-1 6-3#454Sofia Johnson

5-7 6-1 7-5#136Aliaksandra Sasnovich

7-5 6-4#155Sofia Costoulas

6-3 4-6 7-5#81Antonia Ruzic

5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#136Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-2 7-5#82Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-1#539Tahlia Kokkinis

6-2 6-7(4) 6-1#209Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-4 6-1#160Polina Iatcenko

6-2 6-7(3) 6-1#62Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 5-7 6-3#225Lucie Havlickova

6-2 4-6 6-2#180Rebeka Masarova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDarja SemenistajaSemenistaja

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Storm HunterHunterSH

Storm Hunter carries the stronger recent form — Darja Semenistaja's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1565.2%—64.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1555.7%+8.3pp64.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1546.6%+1.6pp48.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/151.3+0.41.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.94.0 fewer4.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1544.2%+2.4pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1539.1%+6.1pp45.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1548.9%+7.9pp41.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1548.1%+1.8pp49.9%

Shot making · 0–2 · 1 evenLimited data · 5 vs 5

Winners / Match5/15 · 5/1513.8+3.817.6

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 5/1520.6—20.6

Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/1564.2%+3.2pp67.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

65.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15—64.9%

55.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+8.3pp64.0%

46.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.6pp48.2%

1.3Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.41.7

0.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/154.0 fewer4.9

Return · 1–0

44.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+2.4pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

39.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+6.1pp45.2%

48.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+7.9pp41.0%

Points · 0–1

48.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.8pp49.9%

Shot making · 0–2 · 1 evenLimited data · 5 vs 5

13.8Winners5/15 · 5/15+3.817.6

20.6Unforced Errors5/15 · 5/15—20.6

64.2%Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/15+3.2pp67.4%