United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Darja Semenistaja #1122Alexandra Shubladze #189Russia0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Wed 26 Aug 2026, 23:03 Predictions gradedQ2Hard

Predictions1–517%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDarja Semenistaja · 77 places

Darja Semenistaja

Latvian left-hander, born 16 September 2002. Official player data lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 87.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #87
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 169 cm

Alexandra Shubladze

Russia

Russian right-hander, born 6 September 2005. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface; her WTA singles ranking reached a listed career high of No. 183 in July 2026. No current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #189
Peak ranking: #183 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 15:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Alexandra Shubladze is a strong favourite based on her dominant hard-court form (12-2 last 15) and superior return game, while Darja Semenistaja has struggled recently despite a first-round qualifying win.

Best bets: Shubladze to win (edge 5.3pts), under 21.5 total games (edge 4.2pts), and Shubladze -3.5 games (edge 3.4pts).

Context

Shubladze last15 hard record: 12-2 (85.7%)
- Shubladze 2026 hard record: 26-6
- Shubladze last15 hard return points won: 55.2%
- Shubladze has won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
Semenistaja retired from ITF Kursumlijska Banja qualifying on 12 August
- She won her US Open qualifying first round on 26 August, 6-2 7-5
- No current injury details are available, but the retirement is within 30 days
Semenistaja last15 overall record: 6-9 (40%)
- Semenistaja last15 clay record: 3-7 (30%)
- Semenistaja last15 hard record: 1-0 (only one match tracked)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Shubladze's dominant recent hard-court form and superior return numbers give her a clear edge over Semenistaja, whose recent window is mostly clay losses.
- Shubladze last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Semenistaja 6-9 (40%)
- Shubladze last15 hard record 12-2 (85.7%), Semenistaja hard sample only 1 match
- Shubladze last15 return points won 53.7%, Semenistaja 44.5%
- Shubladze 2026 hard surface record 26-6, Semenistaja 7-8
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlexandra ShubladzeEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Shubladze's efficient hard-court wins often finish in straight sets with moderate game totals, supporting an under on total games.
- Shubladze last15 average games per match 20.9 (314 games / 15 matches)
- Semenistaja last15 average games per match 24.0 (360 games / 15 matches)
- Shubladze last15 hard average games per match 20.3 (284 games / 14 matches)
- Shubladze has won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Shubladze's superior game-winning percentage on hard courts supports a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Shubladze last15 games won 63.1%, Semenistaja 45.6%
- Shubladze last15 hard games won 64.4%
- Shubladze average margin of victory in straight-set wins often exceeds 4 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlexandra Shubladze -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Shubladze's strong set-winning rate and high first-set conversion suggest she is likely to take the opening set.
- Shubladze last15 sets won 76.5%, Semenistaja 43.6%
- Shubladze first set win conversion career 93%, Semenistaja 89%
- Shubladze last15 hard games won 64.4%, Semenistaja 65% (1 match)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexandra ShubladzeEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Shubladze's ability to close matches in two sets against lower-ranked opponents makes a 2-0 victory a plausible outcome.
- Shubladze last15 straight-set wins: 8 of 12 wins
- Semenistaja lost 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Shubladze last15 sets won 76.5%
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAlexandra Shubladze 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making a low total aces line likely.
- Shubladze last15 aces per match 0.4
- Semenistaja last15 aces per match 1.3
- Combined expected aces around 1.7 per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a high frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches, suggesting a tiebreak may not occur.
- Shubladze last15 tiebreak win percentage 44%
- Semenistaja career tiebreak win percentage 62%
- Shubladze has played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shubladze's high double fault rate could push the combined total over the line, though Semenistaja's low rate adds uncertainty.
- Shubladze last15 double faults per match 3.0
- Semenistaja last15 double faults per match 1.1
- Shubladze hard-court double faults per match 2.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Darja Semenistaja

6W 9L

6-2 7-5#223Hayu Kinoshita

7-6(6) 4-6 5-3 ret.#432Denislava Glushkova

6-2 6-3#195Mia Ristic

3-6 6-3 6-2#86Sinja Kraus

6-1 4-6 6-1#147Julia Riera

6-2 2-6 6-2#145Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-3 3-6 6-3#81Antonia Ruzic

6-4 6-2#192Anastasia Gasanova

6-4 1-6 6-2#227Nao Hibino

7-6(2) 1-6 7-5#207Anna Siskova

6-2 7-5#116Laura Samson

6-3 2-6 7-5#133Marina Bassols Ribera

6-2 6-3#92Maria Timofeeva

6-1 6-2#159Elina Avanesyan

7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(5)#142Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Alexandra Shubladze

12W 3L

6-7(0) 6-1 6-4#194Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#101Anastasia Zakharova

7-5 7-6(4)#347Isabella Shinikova

2-6 7-6(2) 6-3#67Alina Korneeva

4-6 ret.#384Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

6-4 6-1#281Hina Inoue

6-1 6-0#262Han Shi

6-4 3-6 6-3#302Zongyu Li

6-4 6-2#456Hikaru Sato

6-0 7-6(5)—I Wen Wan

6-2 6-3#364Yidi Yang

4-6 6-3 6-1#302Zongyu Li

6-3 5-7 6-0#442Chengyiyi Yuan

6-2 6-1#615Michika Ozeki

6-0 6-1#578Maria Kalyakina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDarja SemenistajaSemenistaja

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Alexandra ShubladzeShubladzeAS

Alexandra Shubladze carries the stronger recent form — Darja Semenistaja's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1565.8%+3.2pp69.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1554.5%+9.9pp64.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1545.2%+1.9pp47.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/151.3+0.90.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.11.9 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1544.5%+9.2pp53.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1539.2%+12.4pp51.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1549.0%+2.7pp46.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1547.7%+8.5pp56.2%

Serve · 2–3

65.8%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+3.2pp69.0%

54.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+9.9pp64.4%

45.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.9pp47.1%

1.3Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.90.4

1.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/151.9 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

44.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+9.2pp53.7%

Pressure · 1–1

39.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+12.4pp51.6%

49.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+2.7pp46.3%

Points · 0–1

47.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+8.5pp56.2%