United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Storm Hunter #174Australia2Maddison Inglis #132Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-0Tue 25 Aug 2026, 21:33 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaddison Inglis · 42 places

Storm Hunter

Australia

The supplied player data lists Hunter at No. 174 in singles, left-handed, and 166 cm. She is also identified as a former world No. 1 doubles player.

Current ranking: #174
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 166 cm

Maddison Inglis

Australia

Inglis is 28, right-handed, and 171 cm. Her listed career-best singles ranking is No. 112.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #112
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Maddison Inglis is favored over Storm Hunter in US Open qualifying, with a ranking edge and stronger hard-court stats.

The match is expected to be close, with value on Inglis to win at 2.10 and over 21.5 total games. Avoid the first-set winner market due to thin margins.

Context

Inglis won four matches at the VanOpen before losing the final to Preston.
- Her last 15 hard-court record is 5-3 (62.5%), better than Hunter's 2-3 (40%).
- Inglis's last 15 hard-court first-serve points won is 66.8%, compared to Hunter's 61.9%.
Hunter defeated Frech 3-6 7-5 6-3 in March 2026.
- She lost to Belinda Bencic (rank 12) and Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (rank 55) in her last two hard-court matches.
- Hunter's last 15 overall record is 6-9 (40%), with a 2-3 hard-court record.
Hunter won 6-3 2-6 7-6(6) in November 2025.
- Inglis won 6-3 6-4 in August 2025.
- Both matches were on hard courts, and the last one went to a deciding set tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 Total GameslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 9.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Both players hold serve reasonably well and the first set is likely to be tight with at least 10 games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Inglis has a stronger recent hard-court profile and ranking edge, supported by her 5-3 hard record in the last 15 matches.
- Inglis last15 hard record 62.5% (5-3) vs Hunter 40% (2-3)
- Inglis last15 overall return points won 40.9% vs Hunter 41.2%
- Inglis last15 hard first serve points won 66.8% vs Hunter 61.9%
- Inglis ranking 132 vs Hunter 174
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaddison InglisEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and the H2H suggests a close contest, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Hunter last15 average match duration 114.9 minutes
- Inglis last15 average match duration 96.2 minutes
- Hunter last15 games won 46.8% vs Inglis 47.4%
- H2H last meeting went to 3 sets with 30 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both players hold serve reasonably well, and the first set is likely to be tight with at least 10 games.
- Hunter last15 first serve points won 62.5%
- Inglis last15 first serve points won 66.2%
- Hunter last15 break points saved 44.1%
- Inglis last15 break points saved 53%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to remain competitive given similar break point conversion rates and second serve vulnerabilities.
- Hunter last15 second serve points won 47.1%
- Inglis last15 second serve points won 45.4%
- Hunter last15 break points converted 43.5%
- Inglis last15 break points converted 46.2%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inglis's superior first-serve effectiveness on hard courts gives her a slight edge to start the match.
- Inglis last15 hard first serve points won 66.8% vs Hunter 61.9%
- Inglis career first set win conversion 86% vs Hunter 83%
- Inglis last15 hard break point conversion 57.1% vs Hunter 56.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaddison InglisEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest around 3.6 aces per match, but Inglis's high ace count in H2H and hard-court serving could push the total over 5.5.
- Hunter last15 aces per match 1.7
- Inglis last15 aces per match 1.9
- H2H total aces in last meeting: Hunter 3, Inglis 14
- Inglis career aces 927 in 555 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hunter's high double fault rate (4.9 per match) combined with Inglis's 3.8 suggests a total around 8.7, making over 7.5 plausible.
- Hunter last15 double faults per match 4.9
- Inglis last15 double faults per match 3.8
- Hunter last15 hard double faults per match 4.8
- Inglis last15 hard double faults per match 3.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-3 2-6 7-6(6)Storm Hunter#174vMaddison Inglis#132Nov 20, 2025

L6-3 6-4Storm Hunter#174vMaddison Inglis#132Aug 18, 2025

2 total meetings

Storm Hunter

6W 9L

7-5 7-5#55Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

5-7 6-1 6-3#455Sofia Johnson

5-7 6-1 7-5#138Aliaksandra Sasnovich

7-5 6-4#158Sofia Costoulas

5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#138Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-3 4-6 7-5#61Antonia Ruzic

6-2 7-5#108Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-1#539Tahlia Kokkinis

6-2 6-7(4) 6-1#210Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-4 6-1#160Polina Iatcenko

6-2 6-7(3) 6-1#56Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 5-7 6-3#230Lucie Havlickova

6-2 4-6 6-2#169Rebeka Masarova

6-3 6-2#12Belinda Bencic

3-6 7-5 6-3#41Magdalena Frech

Maddison Inglis

7W 8L

7-6(5) 6-3#101Taylah Preston

6-3 6-4#171Mai Hontama

6-4 6-7(9) 6-3#100Moyuka Uchijima

6-3 6-3#158Sofia Costoulas

6-1 6-3#178Greetje Minnen

6-3 3-6 6-4#116Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 5-7 6-2#19Sorana Cirstea

6-3 2-6 6-2#200Hanyu Guo

5-7 6-4 6-4#63Alycia Parks

6-2 6-3#224Celine Naef

6-1 7-5#199Robin Montgomery

6-2 6-2#91Anastasia Zakharova

6-3 6-0#326Ena Koike

3-6 6-2 6-4#176Yeon Woo Ku

6-3 6-2#105Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SHStorm HunterHunter

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Maddison InglisInglisMI

Maddison Inglis carries the stronger recent form — Storm Hunter's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.8%+5.3pp59.5%

1st Serve Won62.5%+3.7pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+1.7pp45.4%

Aces / Match1.7—1.9

Double Faults / Match4.91.1 fewer3.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.2%—40.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.5%+2.7pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved44.1%+8.9pp53.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.0%—49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.8%1st Serve In+5.3pp59.5%

62.5%1st Serve Won+3.7pp66.2%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp45.4%

1.7Aces / Match—1.9

4.9Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.2%Return Pts Won—40.9%

Pressure · 0–2

43.5%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp46.2%

44.1%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp53.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.0%Total Pts Won—49.1%